I am doing a final predictions series for the November 3rd presidential elections. If you've missed previous articles, they're listed right here: Alabama-Arkansas, California-Georgia,
(Note: I'll be doing commentary on every race for President, Governor, & Senate regardless of level-of-competitiveness. I'll only do mentions for the House if I assume it'll be competitive in some way-if the House race isn't listed, I'm assuming an easy hold for the incumbent party)
Hawaii
President: One of the bluest states in the Union, even without Barack Obama on the ballot, they'll still give his VP a huge win.
Idaho
President: Trump likely won't hit Romney-level numbers here, but I suspect this is the rare state he might rebound some compared to 2016; it will depend on if Trump's popularity with Mormon voters (a large part of the GOP base in Idaho) has improved since 2016.
Senate: Sen. Jim Risch (R), one of the quietest members of the Senate (have you ever seen him on C-Span?), will win yet another term.
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| Betsy Dirksen Londrigan |
President: Illinois hasn't been a swing state since the 1990's at this point, and will give Biden a quick victory.
Senate: The same will be said for Dick Durbin (who, honestly, I assumed would retire this year but is sticking around for another term).
House: Two years after Democrats Sean Casten & Lauren Underwood beat incumbents to win their seats, there doesn't seem to be much evidence that they're vulnerable themselves. Underwood is definitely in a Trump district, but the Republicans nominated State Sen. Jim Oberweis, something of a running joke in GOP circles for always losing bids for higher office, and I doubt he wins this time. Some Republicans think Rep. Cheri Bustos is vulnerable, but she's a top fundraiser (she's DCCC Chair), and while she's in a red-trending seat...it's not going to happen for them in 2020. The seat that's the most vulnerable is perennial tossup Rep. Rodney Davis (R). Davis is running in the 13th against a top candidate (Betsy Dirksen Londrigan, who nearly beat him in 2018), but Londrigan's campaign has a huge debit-with many college students remote learning, the myriad colleges that make up a large part of a Democrats' base here are less populated than they normally would be, and I think that makes Londrigan's uphill climb too steep.
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| State Rep. Christina Hale (D-IN) |
President: In 2008, Obama shocked the political world by winning the Hoosier State (with Joe Biden by his side). That won't happen this year, but I am curious where this lands considering Biden's apparent strength in polling with white women in the Great Lakes states.
Governor: Democrats were making a lot of waves about how Gov. Eric Holcomb's (R) handling of the Covid crisis (he was more willing to put in mask/social distancing bans than other Republican governors) would cost him support to Libertarian Donald Rainwater, but...I'm not buying it. Democrats don't have a good candidate in State Health Commissioner Woody Meyers, and while Rainwater might hit double digits (his best case scenario), that won't be enough to oust Holcomb.
House: The reason I'm most curious about Biden's numbers is because there is for sure a seat he might carry down-ballot even if he can't take Indiana, and that's in the 5th district, which comprises the northern half of Indianapolis & some of its suburbs. This is a seat that Clinton lost by 12-points in 2016, but that Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly won in 2018 (even as he lost statewide), which means that there's a clear trend to the left here, and with popular Rep. Susan Brooks (R) retiring, the Republicans have a much more conservative challenger that they have to get across the finish line in State Sen. Vicki Spartz. That's not going to fly in 2020, so I'm saying State Rep. Christina Hale gets D+1 for the Democrats, though she goes into redistricting as one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the country if she wins (that, though, is not something you worry about when you're days before an election).
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| Theresa Greenfield (D-IA) |
President: Can I skip Iowa? Honestly-the polls in this state have been nuts in the past month. Some show a slight Trump lead, some show a slight Biden lead, and there isn't even an indication of whether the candidates are doing better than the Senate candidates of their own party (something you can tell in pretty much every other state). What I will say is this-Biden has gained (a lot) in Iowa this year, but Trump won it by 10-points in 2016, and though I think Biden will have improved enough to help Democrats down-ballot, I don't think it will be enough to cover Clinton's margin. This is a tossup state I'm moving to Trump.
Senate: The Iowa Senate race is probably the tightest race in the country. Sen. Joni Ernst (R) started this race with an obvious lead, and Democratic real estate agent Theresa Greenfield has slowly but steadily gained on her at every turn. Greenfield's got the fundraising edge, though it's not clear if she has the polling edge, as we head down the gait. Last week, Ernst clearly was showing some rebound in the polls, but I...don't think it's enough. In an environment like this, a true, complete tossup goes to the national mood, and therefore I'm calling this as my first (only?) President/Senate split of 2020. I would not bet on this with actual money, but since I don't believe in including tossups in these writeups...D+1
House: The main reason that I'm going with Greenfield isn't just her fundraising, but also that district-level polls show strength for Democrats down-ballot, which I think will help her against an unpopular incumbent like Ernst. Democratic incumbents Cindy Axne (3rd district) and Abby Finkenauer (1st), as well as State Sen. Rita Hart (in the open 2nd) have all had slim leads all year. If you'd asked me six months ago, I would have guessed one of them would fall, and one could (probably Finkenauer or Hart), but polling indicates they're favorites, and I'm therefore going with the Dems winning all three.
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| State Sen. Barbara Bollier (D-KS) |
President: Like Indiana, genuinely curious on the margin here as Kansas is (other than Utah) the only Trump-state in the country that 32% of the population has a college degree (and college-educated voters have shown a huge migration away from Trump in polling since 2016). That being said, rural Kansas is blood red, and I don't think Wichita & Kansas City can outdo that for Trump.
Senate: Though they might for the Senate. An open seat in Kansas (Republican Pat Roberts is retiring) has been weirdly close all season. Most Republicans assumed that when Rep. Roger Marshall defeated controversial Secretary of State Kris Kobach, that they had the race in the bag, but moderate State Sen. Barbara Bollier (Democrat, who recently switched parties from the Republicans) has run arguably the most pitch-perfect race in the country. This could flip, which would be historic (no Democrat has won a Senate seat in Kansas since 1932), but I can't bet it will without more evidence from Bollier's polling numbers (only internals have shown her up-most non-partisan polls show a tie or a slight Marshall lead). Marshall wins, but I will admit (I try to keep my own personal politics out of these predictions, but I'll add an editorial here), there would be no Senate victory cooler than Bollier creating such an historic moment in Kansas for me personally.
House: Some Democrats think the open Kansas-2 might be achievable, but I don't-Topeka & Lawrence will not be enough to overcome the large amount of conservative rural voters here, and so Republican State Treasurer Jake LaTurner will win.
Kentucky
President: Kentucky might have just elected a Democratic governor, but it ain't happening for the Democrats on a federal level. An easy win for Donald Trump.
Senate: Inevitably, Democrats are going to have at least one Senate race that's decided by 2-points or less against them (it happens every cycle). When they start assigning blame, it should probably go to this race. Democratic Marine Colonel Amy McGrath has raised over $80 million in her quest to defeat Sen. Mitch McConnell, the majority leader (and arguably the most-loathed senator from the vantage point of the left). She won't win-this was never going to be competitive, and the fact that she raised SO much money when it was obvious she was never going to win such a ruby red state has honestly left a bad taste in the mouth of a lot of Democrats this year, particularly as they look at Senate races in Georgia & Texas where their candidates are in dead heats (and were out-fundraised by their opponents).
House: The only potentially good side effect of McGrath's mountain of cash is if somehow she wins the 6th district, thus helping Marine veteran Josh Hicks against Rep. Andy Barr. I don't think it'll happen, but it's marginal enough it's worth mentioning.
Louisiana
President: One of the reddest states in the country, and that ain't changing in 2020.
Senate: Democrats got a quality candidate at the last second in Shreveport Mayor Adrian Perkins...but I have no idea why he's running as Sen. Bill Cassidy has had this locked up for months.
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