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| Senators Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) |
It's become something of a tradition on the blog for me to posit a "way too early" State of the Senate here, guessing what the closest races for the next federal election will be two years ahead of time. Or, one wonders if it's too early, to be honest, as we find below. I've listed first what I initially predicted in January of 2023, and then what actually happened in November of 2024 in terms of the races "most likely to flip." As you can see from the rankings, the four seats that actually flipped are listed #1-4 in the latter last.
Here's what I predicted:
1. West Virginia
2. Ohio
3. Montana
4. Arizona
5. Nevada
6. Wisconsin
7. Michigan
8. Pennsylvania
9. Texas
10. Virginia
And here's what actually happened:
1. West Virginia
2. Montana
3. Ohio
4. Pennsylvania
5. Michigan
6. Wisconsin
7. Nevada
8. Arizona
9. Nebraska
10. Texas
As you can see, I did staggeringly well here, getting 9/10 of the races correct. The only race that I missed was Nebraska, which was a genuine shock. Though Dan Osborn came closer than expected, Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) still won by an embarrassing margin. Otherwise, this is exactly right. My biggest mistake inside the rankings was Pennsylvania, where I thought Bob Casey would be stronger than he was (side note: I didn't write a post election article both because I'm not doing things like that on the blog anymore, and also because I was kind of numb afterward, though not in the same way that I was in 2016 because I had a lot more going on in my life at that point, but I will say that of all of the congressional races, Bob Casey losing felt like a sucker punch & will go down with Missouri 2018 and North Carolina 2014 as one of those Senate races I'll probably never get over). Honestly, especially considering Virginia was #11 on this list, I feel really proud of myself over how well I did, though man did I wish I'd been a little wronger on some of these races (I do think that the Senate majority math is tricky to the point where I don't know how we get a majority before 2028, maybe even 2030, with the losses of Casey & Brown).
Looking ahead, history teaches us that Trump will probably be unpopular in his midterm (second term presidents usually have bloody second midterms...I doubt Trump will be an exception), so the below is predicated in at least some part on the races being left-leaning. With the increasing lack of crossover voters, though, outside of the Big 7 swing states (all of whom went for Trump last year, and most of whom have Democratic senators already), I do think the Democrats will need 1-2 "Nebraska 2024" style races to be able to go into November 2026 with a straight face saying "we can take back the majority." With that said, let's dive into this field.
Honorable Mention: Kamala Harris saw a significant decline in support in both New Jersey & New Mexico in 2024, and we don't know if that was unique to Harris (i.e. the Democrats will bounce back to Biden-level numbers) or if this is a canary in the coal mine of these states becoming more competitive as we move further into the 2020's. I expect both Sens. Booker & Lujan to run for reelection, which should help them, but I would keep an eye on those races. Same with Sen. Jack Reed, who will surely win if he runs again, but an open race in Rhode Island (where Harris lost 7-points off of Biden's margin) could portend a threat for the Top 10 if Reed retires, even if I don't think it's actually flippable. If the Trump administration is wildly unpopular in 2026, states like Iowa & Kansas could be in contention, though I do wonder if there's any hope of Democrats attracting a quality recruit to take advantage of a bad environment in those states, since any good candidate will likely favor a run for governor.
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| Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) |
The Ohio Senate race officially gots its incumbent this past-week as Gov. Mike DeWine (R) buckled under pressure from Donald Trump to replace JD Vance not with his favored choice (Trump allegedly wanted Vivek Ramaswamy), but instead DeWine loyalist Lt. Gov. Jon Husted got the nod. This is a race where, like Iowa & Kansas, my expectation is that we'll have more heat in the governor's race (DeWine must step down, and already Ramaswamy is running there) than here in terms of quality Democratic candidate recruitment. Already Sen. Sherrod Brown, Rep. Tim Ryan, & Supreme Court Justice Jennifer Brunner are being rumored for both contests, though it's an indictment of how bad things have been for the Ohio Democrats that all three of these candidates lost their last (very high profile) races. If redistricting hurts Rep. Emilia Sykes, she could also be in the running (I would assume a much redder map for Ohio's congressional delegation in 2026 given the ballot initiative that would've outlawed gerrymandering there didn't pass last year), but unless Husted faces a primary challenge (a real possibility) I don't see a world where he actually loses...just that it could get close if things are bad for Trump.
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| Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) |
This race will go higher on this list if we see a retirement from Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (which I anticipate we will given Shaheen will be 78 next week). This was yet another state that Kamala Harris royally dropped the ball compared to Biden in 2020, winning it by less than 3-points, so it's another state we're trying to figure out if Harris hit the low point for Democrats, or if this is another state shifting right. An open seat contest could attract some serious contenders on both sides, including Gov. Chris Sununu for the Republicans and Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas on the left. Former Sen. Scott Brown (R) has also made waves about running, and it's hard to imagine Pappas would get the field totally to himself given there's room to run to his left here (if I were Maggie Goodlander, I'd seriously consider trying to jump ahead of him in line given his recent vote on Transgender Rights). But the big question is around Shaheen-if she runs again, I would assume this stays off of Republicans' radars as they have bigger fish to fry.
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| Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) |
Though a decade younger than Shaheen, Sen. Tina Smith is also on retirement watch, and has not yet committed to running for a second full-term in 2026. Smith would be a pretty safe option for reelection, especially in a Trump midterm, even though she is significantly more progressive than her state (with the loss of Sherrod Brown, Smith might be the most "left-of-her-state" senator in the Democratic caucus). If Smith steps down, though, I think we'd have a free-for-all. There's a real possibility that the DFL would go with a polarizing figure like Al Franken or Keith Ellison rather than someone safe like Angie Craig, and the Republicans have higher-quality candidates like Pete Stauber or (if he realizes he'll never be Speaker) Tom Emmer that could beat Franken or Ellison if the DFL is foolish enough to go that route (and as a Minnesotan, I could see us making that mistake). But, like New Hampshire, this is all predicated on Smith retiring...which I'm 50/50 on if she will.
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| Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) |
Another spot where I'm waiting for a retirement, as Sen. Mark Warner (currently age 70) is not someone that I expected to become a Dianne Feinstein/Chuck Grassley style figure that never retires (he's spent too many times flirting about running for Governor again, and he's also insanely rich & has the mentality of someone who might want to try something else). If he leaves, the Virginia GOP, which has had a decent past few years (Kamala Harris only won by 5-points after Biden won by 10-points, a pretty steep drop), has a great candidate in Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is term-limited and will be out of office by next year (and with JD Vance now in the Naval Observatory), he's unlikely to ever get a shot at the White House, which was his dream. Given how much he seems to love politics, I would assume he runs. The Democrats are running their best candidate right now for governor in Abigail Spanberger, and while they have a bench (Reps. Eugene Vindman & Jennifer McClellan both come to mind), I'll be honest-it doesn't feel strong enough not to worry about Youngkin running here. Hence why one of Kirsten Gillibrand's first jobs as DSCC Chair is to get Mark Warner to run again.
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| Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) |
We shift away from the groups of theoretical retirements to a race that is largely predicated on one person, and it isn't incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, who is widely-expected to pursue a third term. It's instead former Rep. Mary Peltola, who lost a very close race for reelection last year, and has hinted that she's not done yet with electoral politics. Peltola may go for her old job, or she may go for Governor (it would certainly be the easier path given that Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy is term-limited and gubernatorial races are an easier lift if you're from the non-dominant party). Peltola has already filed federal paperwork (i.e. she says, on paper, she's running for her old House seat), and that money can't transfer between a House and a Governor's race. It can transfer to a Senate race, however. And one wonders if Peltola, if she's going to go for broke, will actually go for a six-year term where she'd be afforded considerably more power (she'd quickly have the kind of position that Joe Manchin had when he was in office given how much more reliant Chuck Schumer was on her than the other way around). But Sullivan is more popular than any Republican she's faced to date...will she want to risk it on what will be her only real shot at a comeback?
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| Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-TX) |
Sen. John Cornyn is 72-years-old, and just lost his dream job (Senate Majority Leader). Senators frequently come up with a Plan B, and he might just be content finishing his career as a backbencher, but it's not just retirement that Cornyn has to fear. Rep. Ronny Jackson and Attorney General Ken Paxton, both polarizing in a general election but very popular with the MAGA base, are considering runs for this seat, and it's doubtful that Cornyn could rely upon President Trump against Jackson specifically, given his position as Trump's former chief medical advisor. Democrats, especially after the work they put into Texas in 2024, are exhausted by the "Lucy-and-the-football" routine in the state, but if they care about a majority in 2026, and not just setting themselves up for a majority in 2028 or 2030, they have to actually win states that Trump won in 2020 like Texas & Alaska. I won't postulate who might be a good candidate here (because after so many tries with such a variety of candidates, we still don't know the Democrat who can break Texas), but they have to try here, especially if it's against Paxton/Jackson, because that's a genuinely winnable race.
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| Rep. John James (R-MI) |
Sen. Gary Peters barely won reelection five years ago against (now-) Rep. John James, and the same can be said for Senator Elissa Slotkin last year. Michigan races can be close and not always winning for Democrats (just ask Kamala Harris), and Peters will be in for a fight. The big question is who the Republicans will put up against Peters. Most of the high-profile Republicans in the state (Rep. James, Attorney General Mike Cox, Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, Ambassador Pete Hoekstra) are looking at the gubernatorial race), but my gut says that one of them would break and go after Peters even if the governor's race (after eight years of the now term-limited Gretchen Whitmer) is open. Honestly...though he's something of a joke on Election Twitter, I have to say it-the best candidate is probably James going for a third time, and part of me wonders if he's the one to switch gears here given he already has federal experience. Personally, I'd love to see Peters & Whitmer switch races, given Whitmer is (in my opinion) the single most effective politician the Democrats have right now and it'd be a waste to keep her out of office headed into 2028, but I doubt that happens. Either way, this race will be one of the most-discussed of 2026...
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| Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) |
...but not the most-discussed. That will be the Georgia Senate race. Sen. Jon Ossoff pulled off a massive upset in 2021 to win this seat, getting the Democrats the Senate majority. Despite his celebrity as a poor candidate (who lost the then-most expensive House race of all-time that many thought would be the end of his career) he has been an impressive first-termer, and has done a good job acclimating to incumbency. Ossoff is expected to face Gov. Brian Kemp, the outgoing governor whose general election bonafides are secure given Donald Trump hates him (but he's still somehow popular). Early polling shows Kemp leading, but I'll be honest-that's kind of worthless right now. Two years of Trump will make Kemp's fortunes even if the governor isn't closely-tied to the president, and Ossoff will be in a better position by then. There's also the real possibility the Republicans blow the race by not backing Kemp in the primary. The most vocal name in the race is Rep. Buddy Carter, who has already spoken out that he may run, but the biggest name is Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has not tamped down chatter that she is pursuing a promotion. If Greene is the Republican nominee, Ossoff will win this race relatively easily, but against Kemp it'll be a race. For all of the talk about Raphael Warnock for 2028, I'll be honest-I think people are sleeping on the potential of Ossoff being on the 2028 ticket at this point if he wins this race.
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| Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) |
If Kamala Harris had won the 2024 election, Georgia would've been the #1 race on this list. I am assuming, though, that Donald Trump gets some blowback by 2026 (particularly given his economic policies are putting a recession very much on the table), and so I'm instead moving two Republican races onto the Top 2. The Democrats have no shot at the majority without these two; their quest for a majority is slim even with them, but these are must wins. That's why I assume that Kirsten Gillibrand is already working the phones with Gov. Roy Cooper here. Despite his age (Cooper is 67), the former governor is the best option the Democrats have here, and he seems interested in running for the Senate seat after basically having to turn down VP consideration last year when he did appear to be interested. Sen. Thom Tillis could face a primary challenge (former RNC Chair and presidential daughter-in-law Lara Trump has openly talked about it, and given Tillis may not back all of Trump's cabinet nominees, he could be vulnerable on that front), but I think we're looking at the other marquee race of 2026 here, with Tillis vs. Cooper, a contest that even in January 2025 you can safely say is a tossup next year.
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| Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) |
Don't look at me like that. I'm aware that trying to beat Susan Collins in Maine is a lot like trying to achieve Blue Texas-it looks like a possibility every six years, but never happens. But Collins has never faced an election like this. This is the first GOP presidential midterm that Collins has run in since 2002, which was very different given George W. Bush's approvals were much higher than Trump's are expected to be next year. In 2020, when the Democrats went after her, Collins was able to separate herself from Trump by literally having Trump on the ballot next to her-"vote for Biden, and then vote for me" was a strategy I didn't expect to work, but it did. If Maine voters (who backed Kamala Harris last year) want to send a message to Trump next year, the only way to do so is by voting against Collins. I expect Collins, who is famously indecisive, to resist retirement until the last minute, but given her perfect track record in Maine, I also suspect she'd rather retire than go for another six years & risk going out like her hero Margaret Chase Smith (who lost her last race). Rep. Jared Golden & Secretary of State Shenna Bellows are probably the Democrats two best options, though both are currently favoring the gubernatorial race. If Collins is out or vulnerable, though, I would imagine one of them gets into the contest.
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