2024 Oscar Predictions

The Oscars have moved their nominations date multiple times now, but as of today they're currently to be announced on January 23rd.  Regardless, I feel like I have enough information right now to make it official-here are my predictions of what I think will be nominated for this year's Academy Awards.  Enjoy and sound off in the comments!

Picture

1. Conclave

2. The Brutalist

3. Emilia Perez

4. Wicked

5. A Complete Unknown

6. Anora

7. Dune: Part Two

8. The Substance

9. Sing Sing

10. A Real Pain

Alts: Nickel Boys, All That We Imagine As Light

The Lowdown: The first 8 don't feel movable to me.  The Substance is certainly a weird Best Picture nominee, but the Academy has become far less stodgy about such things in recent years (and more prone to group think, and The Substance has dominated precursors).  The final two slots really feel between the four listed films (September 5 feels too late-breaking, Challengers too hip, and The Seed of the Sacred Fig too quiet).  I'm going with Sing Sing because it's a Best Actor lock and A Real Pain because it's a movie that I think most actors will like, though Nickel Boys, in particular has ardent fans & I wouldn't be surprised if it made it.

Director

1. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)

2. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)

3. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)

4. Edward Berger (Conclave)

5. Sean Baker (Anora)

Alts: RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune 2), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

The Lowdown: The DGA gave their list to Corbet, Audiard, Berger, Baker & Mangold, but if your Oscar knowledge goes back to before 2008, you know that the DGA is not always carbon copy for this category, and indeed, it was historically a better marker for which five films would make Best Picture as the DGA is more populist than Oscar.  Due to this, I'm skipping Mangold, and putting in Coralie Fargeat, both because this would be a more daring choice (in line with the Directors Branch), and because there has been more openness in recent years to ensuring there's a female directing nominee.  If I'm underestimating Nickel Boys, this would be a decent place to put RaMell Ross, and Denis Villeneuve is always a threat (though Oscar has a tepid relationship with him), but Fargeat makes the most overall sense.

Actor

1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

2. Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)

3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)

5. Daniel Craig (Queer)

Alts: Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice or A Different Man)

The Lowdown: Daniel Craig presents the biggest conundrum here.  The first four nominees feel fairly locked, with the Top 3 each feeling like theoretical winners (if there's a shock snub with Oscar, it'd be Domingo missing due to Oscar's collective amnesia about any films made before Labor Day, but I doubt it).  Craig got both the Globes & SAG, but somehow missed with BAFTA, instead with them preferring Stan (in this case playing Donald Trump in The Apprentice), as well as Hugh Grant's lauded turn in Heretic.  I think at the end of the day it's still Craig-Grant is in a genre they don't historically like (and they're already doing The Substance), and Stan is splitting votes with himself, while Craig is a longtime movie star who has never gotten an Oscar nomination (they love citing those).  But that fifth slot still feels in play.

Actress

1. Demi Moore (The Substance)

2. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)

3. Mikey Madison (Anora)

4. Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez)

5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)

Alts: Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here), Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl)

The Lowdown: Unlike Best Actor, I don't think the Top 4 is locked in here.  Moore feels pretty assured (and probably is going to win the Oscar), but Madison's film peaked too early, Erivo's been more lauded than her costars, and Gascon's turn has a lot of detractors.  The main reason I have more confidence in Domingo holding it together than these four is because there's way more competition here.  You have not just two critical darlings (Torres & Jean-Baptiste), but also a comeback bid (if Demi Moore wasn't in the running here, I'd guess Anderson makes it but their similar narratives makes it feel like Moore is sucking all of the "glad to see her again" energy here).  You also have a lot of Oscar favorites (Nicole Kidman, Kate Winslet, Angelina Jolie, & Amy Adams) who all have gotten citations this season and could make it like Annette Bening did last year for Nyad.  I'm going with Jean-Baptiste because I need at least one No Globe/No SAG prediction and she's peaking at the right time, but the fifth slot is so crowded that no one except Demi Moore should feel comfortable right now.

Supporting Actor

1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

2. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)

3. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)

4. Yura Borisov (Anora)

5. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Alts: Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II), Jonathan Bailey (Wicked)

The Lowdown: Another category with a lot of names, and the category I most think something wild is going to happen in on Oscar morning.  Culkin is so locked in as the season frontrunner that the rest of the nominees are mostly rearranging chairs, and that's when weird things happen.  I'm going with Norton & Pearce because those turns are very Oscar-adjacent, and Borisov has dominated all season even as a relative unknown.  Strong is really well-respected by actors (he's getting nominated at some point), but so are Tucci & especially Washington, the latter of whom basically always makes it when he has awards heat.  They could just toss their hands in the air and pick something crazy like Jonathan Bailey, everyone's collective crush at the moment...I expect a weird name here, but I'll own that I'm picking a pretty conventional quintet to play it safe.

Supporting Actress

1. Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)

2. Arian Grande (Wicked)

3. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)

4. Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl)

5. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)

Alts: Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)

The Lowdown: The first two nominees feel set, and then we get crazy here too.  Jones, after seeing the film, is the kind of role that Oscar goes for, and I feel increasingly confident in Jamie Lee Curtis-the BAFTA & SAG nods, plus an overall sense that The Last Showgirl is playing well with voters makes me assume an afterglow nomination is in the cards.  I'm going with Rossellini for fifth because (similar to Daniel Craig above) she's a longtime movie star who has never been nominated, and it's generally a good bet to make that the one woman in a Best Picture frontrunner dominated by men will get nominated (see also Felicity Jones).  Margaret Qualley could make it if they love The Substance, Monica Barbaro could make it if they love A Complete Unknown, Selena Gomez could make it if they extra love Emilia Perez, and there's always the chance of a late-breaker like Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (if you can't tell, I have no sense of the standing of Nickel Boys, which I'm hoping to see later today)...but the Top 5 here feels very much like an Oscar-y lineup to me, and so that's where I'm landing.

Adapted Screenplay

1. Conclave

2. Emilia Perez

3. Sing Sing

4. Nickel Boys

5. A Complete Unknown

Alts: Dune: Part Two, Wicked

The Lowdown: As we move into the techs, I'll say it-I either have a bad sense of this year because it's genuinely competitive (which I think it is, at least for the nominations) or a lot of my Oscar-related tools (Twitter, my blog, Entertainment Weekly) have gone the way of the dodo or, in Twitter's case, become a giant dumpster fire.  So I anticipate I'll get more wrong beyond this category.  For example, I can't quite tell if Dune 2 or Wicked have the kind of stamina to take out a movie like Nickel Boys or Sing Sing or A Complete Unknown, all of which are also in the Best Picture hunt.  Dune and Wicked are in genres (SciFi and musicals) that do poorly here (particularly compared to biopics about Nobel Laureates and adaptations of Pulitzer Prize winners), but if one of them has more strength than expected, I could see it getting in...I just don't know over whom.

Original Screenplay

1. The Brutalist

2. Anora

3. The Substance

4. A Real Pain

5. Hard Truths

Alts: September 5, Challengers, All We Imagine As Light

The Lowdown: Best Picture is overrun with adaptations, so we know at least a few nominees will miss there.  I'm listing the four predicted Best Picture contenders as #1-4 (which means Jesse Eisenberg will join the short list of actors who have also been cited for writing), and then for the fifth choice I'm going with Mike Leigh, who has received five nominations to date for writing (along with two for directing), and at 81 is not going to have many chances to show up here again.  September 5, All We Imagine As Light, and Challengers are in movies with arguably more heat (certainly for Best Picture), but Leigh's long history with the Academy makes me think he's the best bet in a tight contest.

International Feature Film

1. Emilia Perez (France)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

3. I'm Still Here (Brazil)

4. Kneecap (Ireland)

5. Vermiglio (Italy)

Alts: Flow (Latvia), Girl with the Needle (Denmark)

The Lowdown: This is one of those races where the eventual winner is so firmly established (this, along with Song & Supporting Actress, is the category that Emilia Perez is pretty much guaranteed a win in), so the rest of the nominees are more of a "who's getting #2?" contest.  I included I'm Still Here with Torres in the hunt for Best Actress (similar to her mother 26 years ago, she could get cited for Best Actress for a Foreign Language Film nominee that won't win), and after seeing The Seed of the Sacred Fig, I don't buy the "waning interest" in the film that some have posited online as the big shock snub on Thursday (it's too good if you actually see it to ignore it).  The remaining four films feel like it'll be between Ireland, Italy, Latvia, & Denmark, though this category tends to love to throw in at least one movie no one has been predicting at all, so don't be surprised if at least one nominee isn't listed above.

Animated Feature Film

1. The Wild Robot

2. Flow

3. Inside Out 2

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

5. Memoir of a Snail

Alts: Moana 2

The Lowdown: It has become increasingly easy, especially with Disney ceding so much ground, to predict this category, making it downright dull if you're like me and dream of the days where The Secret of Kells could be the shock of the morning (I still maintain that it should only be three-wide...that would make it far more interesting).  As it sits, the only movie I could see making it in a surprise would be Moana 2, which just crossed $1 billion and you'd think on some level that would entice people to give Disney two slots.  But that's honestly it-this wasn't a very intriguing year for animation beyond these five pictures.

Original Score

1. The Brutalist

2. Conclave

3. Emilia Perez

4. The Wild Robot

5. Challengers

Alts: Wicked, Blitz, The Room Next Door

The Lowdown: The most insular branch in the Academy, the biggest concern I have right now is that I'm not picking a lot of longtime Oscar favorites save for Reznor & Ross (in fifth place).  8-time nominee Stephen Schwartz (Wicked), 12-time nominee Hans Zimmer (Blitz), and 4-time nominee Alberto Iglesias (The Room Next Door) are very much Oscar's speed, and I think one of them feels likelier than not to make it into the final nominees, but none stands out.  Wicked has the curse of musicals not being super popular to be nominated here (and they're already breaking that rule with Emilia Perez), and the other two might be their films only nominations.  Hell, I wouldn't even be surprised if 4-time nominee Danny Elfman (who hasn't been up for an Oscar in 16 years) is the shocker for the Beetlejuice sequel.

Original Song

1. "El Mal" (Emilia Perez)

2. "Mi Camino" (Emilia Perez)

3. "Kiss the Sky" (The Wild Robot)

4. "The Journey" (The Six Triple Eight)

5. "Harper and Will Go West" (Will & Harper)

Alts: "Compress/Repress" (Challengers), "Piece by Piece" (Piece by Piece)

The Lowdown: There are honestly a lot of Oscar bridesmaids that made the shortlist this year.  Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mufasa), Diane Warren (The Six Triple Eight), Pharrell Williams (Piece by Piece), and Nicholas Britell (also Mufasa) have spots on the shortlist and none of them have won despite multiple nominations, and one wonders if I'm under-estimating them by only picking the inevitable Warren for my Top 5.  That said, it's hard to see anyone other than Emilia Perez winning here (making including bridesmaids pointless since they ain't going to win this time either), and so I'm going with the tried-and-true Best Song tropes of an animated film, a Diane Warren film, & a documentary to finish this off aside from the Emilia Perez frontrunners.  Now the question is-will Selena Gomez & Zoe Saldana perform them live?

Sound

1. Wicked

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Emilia Perez

4. A Complete Unknown

5. Gladiator II

Alts: Alien Romulus, The Wild Robot

The Lowdown: With the devastating fires impacting Los Angeles over the past week, the Sound, Makeup, & Visual Effects bakeoffs have been cancelled, and while they are trying to do a proxy version of this online, I do wonder if this ends up favoring movies that are more top-of-mind (i.e. the Best Picture contenders) rather than movies that might've gained some cache from these presentations.  Alien: Romulus, specifically, felt like a movie that I assumed would make it until the bakeoffs were cancelled, and so instead I'm subbing in Gladiator II for that spot.  This category is weirdly dominated by musicals, which may make Dune's path to a victory considerably easier.

Cinematography

1. The Brutalist

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Nickel Boys

4. Conclave

5. Nosferatu

Alts: Maria, A Complete Unknown, Wicked

The Lowdown: The ASC had seven nominees this year, which thus provided virtually no help.  A Complete Unknown got into the list, as did Maria, both of which I have kept as alternates because the former feels pretty generic (though they love Phedon Papamichael in this category) and the latter has no heat anywhere (though Edward Lachman is an Oscar favorite as well...this is a category so clique-y you have to go back to the early 1930's before you can find a lineup that didn't feature a previous nominee).  The biggest, scariest threat to this lineup is Wicked, the garish & ugly cinematography somehow getting into the relatively classy ASC lineup.  I also think it's weird we have no black-and-white options in the running, so don't be stunned if The Girl with the Needle manages to get in here, even if it misses Best International Feature.

Costume

1. Wicked

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Nosferatu

4. Maria

5. Gladiator II

Alts: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, The Brutalist, Conclave

The Lowdown: We once again have a lineup where we have a longtime Oscar favorite (Colleen Atwood, winner of 4 Oscars & 12 nominations) in a movie that's not super hot elsewhere (Beetlejuice Beetlejuice).  The Oscars historically would've gone here, particularly given the film's gross, but I think they've become so "Best Picture or Bust" in recent years that I'm keeping Atwood out even if I think she's a legit threat.  This assembles a relatively predictable group of fantasy & period pieces for the nominees.  I'm weirdly less concerned about choosing Maria (this category loves this style of nominee, and doesn't really give a damn about box office), and more concerned I'm nominating too many sequels.  C'est la vie.

Film Editing

1. Conclave

2. Emilia Perez

3. Dune: Part Two

4. The Brutalist

5. The Substance

Alts: Wicked, Challengers

The Lowdown: The key to Best Film Editing is to have a very strong sense of what the "core five" Best Pictures are, and pick most of them.  I think if we were still in the 5-wide Best Picture nominees we'd have Conclave, Emilia Perez, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, and Wicked as the nominees, and I'm going with three of them (plus Wicked as an also-ran).  I'm keeping Dune in because they love Best Picture nominees with an action bent in Editing, and I'm also keeping The Substance because if you like it, you like it because of the editing.  Challengers is the weird film with a lot of heat here and not a lot in Best Picture, so I don't know what to make of that but I am listing it to cover my bases.

Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Wicked

2. The Substance

3. Nosferatu

4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

5. Emilia Perez

Alts: A Different Man, Waltzing with Brando

The Lowdown: Our second lineup impacted by a lack of the Bakeoffs, and here I think that is going to specifically hurt two films: A Different Man and Waltzing with Brando.  A Different Man is under-seen, certainly compared to box office hits like Wicked and Beetlejuice, which may make a difference if the branch isn't doing their homework, while Brando's inclusion on the shortlist at all would've normally been a sign that this will get in (the Makeup branch loves giving "Oscar-nominated" to truly bizarre and oftentimes terrible movies...they are definitely that cousin in the family), but I doubt anyone sees it without the bakeoffs.  I'm therefore going to pick five nominees that I think most of the Academy will have seen, and this still feels pretty much in-line with what Oscar would normally pick without the wild card contender.

Production Design

1. Wicked

2. The Brutalist

3. Dune: Part Two

4. Nosferatu

5. Gladiator II

Alts: A Complete Unknown, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

The Lowdown: Another lineup where I can't quite tell what Beetlejuice's strength is (I could honestly see it getting anywhere from 0-4 nominations on Thursday), so I'm not predicting it and just going with it as an alternate.  Gladiator II, as well, has lost all heat in what was once assumed to be a sure thing.  The Top 3 I feel very confident about given the scale (and in the case of The Brutalist, the subject matter), while Nosferatu is catnip for this category.  The retro designs of New York City and the large-scale concert venues in A Complete Unknown would make this a good coattails spot if the film is as strong with Oscar as it has been with the precursors.

Visual Effects

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

3. Wicked

4. Alien: Romulus

5. Twisters

Alts: Better Man, Gladiator II, Deadpool & Wolverine

The Lowdown: Our last category impacted by the bakeoffs is causing me to make maybe my boldest snub prediction in this article.  Better Man is the type of movie that gets nominated for an Oscar, and stands out in the bakeoffs.  This branch isn't afraid of nominating flops, but they also have to see the film, and Better Man has done terribly at the box office.  It's enough of a threat that, even though I have little interest in it, I'm seeing it tomorrow solely because I think it's a contender here, but I do think that we're overestimating its strength even though it has dominated all season as I get the sense that Hollywood would just like to move on from this fiasco.  It's worth noting that if Better Man and Gladiator II make it over Alien: Romulus & Twisters, 80% of this lineup will feature CGI monkeys as part of their nomination (too bad Godzilla x Kong didn't make the shortlist so we could assume it'd go 5/5...Planet of the Apes indeed!).