The Fall of the House of Trump

We've gotten to the point where saying "this is the worst week of the Trump campaign" has gotten so repetitive, it's hard not to think of it as just hyperbole.  So I'll go a step further-this past week may have been one of the worst week's of Donald Trump's life.   Just days after having to provide a bond for $91 million in his case against E. Jean Carroll, Donald Trump had to come clean and admit that he did not have the money to put up the bond for $464 million in the fraud case that was brought forward to him by the state of New York for exaggerating property values to obtain favorable loan terms from banks.  Trump has just six day to find some way to pay a bond of over $500 million, or New York Attorney General Letitia James can start seizing his assets, putting a freeze on his bank accounts or putting a lien or liquidating on his real estate empire, including his treasured Trump Tower in Manhattan.  Financial ruin, bankruptcy, and having to admit publicly that he is not as wealthy as he has long bragged about being (including, potentially, the world finding out if he ins't a billionaire, an assertation that is becoming increasingly suspect) has meant that the thing Trump cares most about (his ego) has taken a dramatic hit.

There are other things to point out this week too.  A judge ruled that Michael Cohen, Karen McDougal, and Stormy Daniels will be allowed to testify in the New York hush money trial that could start as early as next month.  Their testimony increases the odds that Trump will be found guilty and face actual prison time.  Additionally, in having to defend himself against their testimonies publicly (or risk it costing him politically), there's a strong possibility that Trump will invite other defamation lawsuits from the three of them (if I was Cohen's, McDougal's, or Daniels' attorney, I would have alerts set up on Truth Social ready to get my own payday).  He also saw his former vice president decline to endorse him for reelection in November, the highest-profile Republican defection that is added atop Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, & Todd Young.

Trump's campaign (and many of those who still think he will win in November) will point out, correctly, that this still has not shown up in the polls, and he's right...to a degree.  Donald Trump enjoys a strong position in the Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) polling average in Georgia (5-points), Michigan (3-points), Nevada (6-points), North Carolina (7-points), Pennsylvania (5-points), and Arizona (5-points).  You can quibble (and many do) with the validity of some of the polls included here, but in states like Nevada, there's really no good news in the polling for Democrats.  Biden has not led in a poll there in months.  Donald Trump remains, based on swing state polling, the favorite for the November election.

But it has to be noted that Joe Biden leads him in virtually every other marker known to man outside of polling.  The economy is good, and attitudes toward it are significantly improving.  Biden did considerably better in the presidential primaries than Trump did (Nikki Haley voters were real, and are a problem for the Trump campaign, particularly if they ignore them and give Biden an opening).  Biden's party did better in the midterms, clobbered in the off-year 2023 elections, & Democrats have consistently done well in special elections.  Democratic congressional recruitment has been stronger, particularly for the Senate, and is evidenced by Pence, Democrats have much stronger unity in terms of the "powerbrokers" in the party (Bill Clinton & Barack Obama have been raising millions for Biden while Trump's highest-profile surrogates are far less potent figures like Lindsey Graham & Marjorie Taylor Greene).  Biden is also considerably better on the stump.  His State of the Union address won praise from even his toughest critics, while Trump's speeches are marked by their incoherence.  This will become an issue as Biden has been heavily campaigning in swing states this month while Trump largely plays to friendly audiences.

Biden is also dominating Trump in campaign fundraising, to the point where he's considering expanding his operation in the spring to Florida & Texas to see if that might invite opportunities.  To put into perspective how much better Biden's numbers are than Trump's-Trump raised about $3 million in small-dollar donations in the month of January.  Biden raised nearly $2 million in one day in February (February 29th).  Biden announced this week that he raised $53 million in February, and has $155 million on-hand.  While Trump has not announced his February fundraising, he had only $40 million on-hand at the end of January.  The DNC is also out-raising the RNC, and much of this might have to do with the likelihood that Trump will use at least some of the Trump & RNC campaign donations to pay his legal fees as he faces multiple criminal trials this year, making an already stark fundraising gap all the worse as all of Biden's money is going to go to his campaign (or to helping Democrats down-ballot).

I noted above that Trump's poll lead was solid "to a degree" and I want to note why I clarified that.  Donald Trump's national polling numbers are still better in aggregate than Joe Biden's-he leads Biden in the DDHQ average by 0.9-points.  But that's the lowest that's been since mid-January, and we have seen in the past two weeks a clear bounce in Biden's poll numbers.  Perhaps this is due to him winning the Democratic nomination or a lauded State of the Union address, but it is not an anomaly-Biden is recovering his polling, even if he has not broken out a lead.  Other metrics have started to show Biden moving into the lead in the aggregate, depending on how long you use the polling window for (or which you use).  The point is-Biden's clearly gaining on Trump.  This generally happens on a national level before it starts showing up in state-level polling (trickle down, if you will).  If this continues, you would expect Biden to start to see noticeable gains in state-level polling in the next few weeks.

I have maintained for several months that Trump is the favorite for November, and I'm not switching my position on that until I see some tangible proof that the swing state polling has given Biden some gains.  But I think it would be appropriate to criticize me a bit for this stance at this point, and I am a bit leery about it myself.  The only good thing going for Trump right now is his strong position in swing state polls.  That's not nothing (in fact, at the end of the day, it's the most important factor), but other factors like those I just listed, of party unity, fundraising, and GOTV infrastructure, Biden is in the lead, and it's honestly hard at this point to see a world where Trump gets back the leverage in these positions.  It is, in fact, much easier to see Biden gaining in swing state polls than Trump gaining in fundraising.  Trump's position in swing state polls is impressive, but as his world (and campaign) collapses, it's hard not to look at it as the last domino to fall in the House of Trump.