Mike Pence's Non-Endorsement Matters

This past week, former Vice President Mike Pence announced on Fox News that he would not support former President Trump in his quest to win a second term this November.  Pence announced this on Friday, saying that Trump was "pursuing an agenda that is at odds with the conservative agenda we governed on during our four years."  He followed up on Face the Nation by telling Margaret Brennan, when she asked specifically about those jailed for their involvement with the January 6th riots that Trump's commentary on them was "unfortunate" and he did not approve of Trump calling these people "hostages" particularly in light of the situation in Gaza.

Pence's announcement is not getting the press that it deserves, and so (despite a very busy week) I'm going to make sure to point it out here, because it is a big deal and I want to give it proper credence.  For much of the past four years, Pence has largely eschewed the spotlight, and has been tepid when it came to his criticisms of President Trump.  This was despite him literally campaigning against Trump in the presidential primary (friendly reminder in case you forgot because it'd be easy to forget-Pence briefly ran for president last year), and Trump encouraging a group of his supporters to storm the Capitol and stop the count that Pence was presiding over at the time.  Yes, even though Trump led a group of violent rioters to the Capitol, while they chanted "Hang Mike Pence" in a building that not only had Pence, but also his wife, brother, and daughter, I'll be real here-I'm kind of stunned Pence had this kind of moral courage.

Pence is framing this as a difference of policy, but let's be real here-that is not the problem here.  Pence has had no problem in the past supporting people like Susan Collins or Lisa Murkowski, both of whom have much more divergent political beliefs than Pence to Trump.  No-this is about Trump's unfitness for office, and it's worth noting that Pence is not the only high-profile member of the administration who has done this, though of course Pence is the most noteworthy since it was also his administration.

Other members of Trump's administration who have not yet endorsed include his former Chief of Staff John Kelly, his Defense Secretaries (James Mattis & Mark Esper), Attorney General Bill Barr, UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, and two of his National Security Advisors (John Bolton, HR McMaster).  There are others (such as Secretary of State Rex Tillerson) who have not made much public statement either way, but these are the names that stand out considerably to me because they have been so vocal in their criticisms of Trump's behavior in office, and given the cover of Pence's decision, I would imagine most, if not all of them, will not endorse him.

This comes on the heels of three sitting Republican senators (Todd Young, Bill Cassidy, & Mitt Romney) stating that they will not vote for Donald Trump in November, even if he is the nominee.  Given their support for other candidates in the primary, my eyes are definitely on Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and (to a lesser degree) Mike Rounds to see if they join them.

This is a stunning rebuke to the former president and now-Republican nominee for president, the likes of which, I'll be honest, we have never seen in modern politics, even in 2016.  No living former vice president will support the Republican nominee (Dick Cheney & Dan Quayle have joined Pence)-that's an insane situation, and one that the media does not focus on enough.  There is a lot of conversation about "discord" in the Democratic Party because of the "Uncommitted" vote in states like Michigan & Minnesota, but overall-the party power-brokers have lined up for Biden.  Outgoing Senators Joe Manchin & Kyrsten Sinema have not yet endorsed, but I suspect they will (especially Manchin) get behind the president, even if it's just with cursory support, by this fall.  Rep. Rashida Tlaib has also declined to endorse, but that feels similar to Sinema/Manchin-I anticipate she'll announce she'll vote for him, but not "endorse" him like she did in 2020 (which is tantamount to the same thing).

But these are not figures akin to Mike Pence or James Mattis or Bill Barr.  That would be the equivalent of if Al Gore or Hillary Clinton or Eric Holder weren't backing Biden-and they all obviously are.  The reality of this should not be lost, either politically or consequentially.  On-the-fence Republicans will look to figures like Pence & Nikki Haley and say "if they know him best, and won't vote for him...should I?"  This is a real problem for Trump, because those same voters also cost him the election in 2020.  It cannot be overstated enough that Donald Trump LOST the 2020 election, and as a result he has to win over voters who didn't vote for him in 2020 if he wants to win in 2024...attacking Pence & Haley (and Haley's numerous primary supporters) while Biden is courting those same supporters is risking an even bigger loss if you don't make up the votes somewhere else.

It should also not be lost that Pence chose to do this, almost certainly, because he saw what a Trump presidency did to the country and to our democracy.  I disagree with Pence on nothing politically, but it has to be noted that he conceded the 2020 election, that he went to the inauguration (when Trump didn't), and that he was willing to tell America that Trump is not worthy of the presidency even if that means a Democrat wins (and Pence's political career is now over).  That takes guts, sure, but it also scares the hell out of me that all of these people who literally worked for the guy are so scared of a second Trump term, they're willing to give tacit support to Joe Biden to make sure Trump loses.  How bad do they think he could be?