This isn't totally unusual, at least to have 1-2 senators not decided, but you can usually read the tea leaves on what the senators are going to do this far out, even if we don't have a formalized indication they're running...but that's not the case with these five. Due to some bizarre circumstances surrounding most of these candidates, it's understandable why these candidates haven't announced yet, but with the clock ticking, I wanted to have a conversation as to why we don't know yet...and whether I think they'll ultimately run for another term.
Who She Is: Butler is the newest member of the Senate, not even a week into the job. Nominated to the Senate to succeed the late Dianne Feinstein, her appointment by Gov. Gavin Newsom was seen as a surprise by many, but she needs to decide pretty quickly whether or not she'll run for a full-term in office given the California Senate race is already in full-swing, with three sitting members of Congress already running.
Why She Might Run: Butler is new to electoral politics, but she's not new to politics in general. She was an aide to Kamala Harris, was a labor organizer, & she is the most recent president of Emily's List, one of the most powerful Super PAC's on the left. Butler is also only 44-years-old, an infant in terms of the Senate, and is the only Black woman currently serving in the US Senate, likely opening up an opportunity for more fundraising. I think, given her newfound perch, that while she wouldn't be a frontrunner for the California Senate seat, she'd upend the race, possibly even getting in second behind Rep. Adam Schiff in the primary, and if she's a decent campaigner, she'd be a formidable option against Schiff in a one-on-one race.
Why She Won't Run: For starters, California is crazy expensive, and campaign connections don't always translate to campaign cash; many of Emily's List's most prominent donors have already aligned with Reps. Katie Porter or Barbara Lee. She's also an unknown in California, one who was so unprepared for this appointment that she was registered to vote in Maryland, a fact that will surely come up if she tries to go for a Senate seat in the most populous state in America.
My Guess: I'm guessing that while she'll consider it for a bit, she'll ultimately decline. Butler has a lot of opportunities (DNC Chair, Labor Secretary, White House Chief of Staff) that a friendly year in the Senate might open for her, and going after those positions rather than a grueling Senate campaign where she'd start as an underdog have to be more appealing.
Who He Is: Joe Manchin is the man who is a swear word to the left, albeit not of the same severity as the last senator on this list (though your mileage may vary). The 76-year-old senator has been in West Virginia politics longer than I've been alive, and would be looking at almost certainly his final race for public office if he sought one last term.
Why He Might Run: Manchin has spent the past two years as the King of the Senate. During the 50/50 117th Congress, he was able to command pretty much anything he wanted from Sen. Chuck Schumer, and as a result he got the most robust agenda of any senator in recent memory. Manchin loves the attention, and he loves delivering for his economically-poor state, something no replacement senator would be able to do to the same degree. Rumor is that he'd run as an Independent (though I suspect one that would caucus with the Democrats) if he ran again, similar to Angus King, but Democrats would still line up behind him because there's no alternative, and one last run clearly is something he relishes, especially if he gets to beat Jim Justice, the man who fired his wife.
Why He Won't Run: He has no chance of winning, given the state's Republican slant. Manchin has openly explored an independent bid for president (we discussed that a bit more here), and if he's serious about that he'd have to forego the Senate race. Manchin is a wild card, but he's always been ambivalent to the Senate...it's possible he'll want to just go home after hating DC for a decade.
My Guess: I think Manchin retires. I don't see him doing the presidential race ultimately (I think he has enough sense to be talked out of it, partially because he knows he won't win), and he knows that he will be a massive underdog in the Senate race. He's an institution in West Virginia (he could easily become their university's president as a career-capper), and retiring would ensure he goes out on top.
Who He Is: Sen. Bob Menendez has been a fixture in DC for decades, first as a rising congressman in the House, and then since 2006, he's been a Senator from New Jersey, with his biggest focus being on Foreign Affairs. However, in the past few weeks he's faced multiple indictments indicating he took bribes, potentially even compromising his position in the Senate to benefit the Egyptian government.
Why He Might Run: He clearly wants to. Menendez loves being a politician, and has run despite multiple protestations in the past for him to step down. His son is a congressman, and he's obviously wanted to save the Senate seat for him at some point. Plus, with both Rep. Andy Kim and First Lady Tammy Murphy looking at this Senate race, it's possible Menendez could get through the primary with a plurality...and in a blue state, he'd still be a mild favorite for the general election.
Why He Won't Run: His poll numbers are abysmal. His disapproval ratings are approaching that of head lice, and even with Kim & Murphy both running, they still look like they could both best him in the primary. His institutional support from the New Jersey counties (New Jersey has a very undemocratic balloting process that Menendez will no longer benefit from as a pariah) will also cost him. Plus, he could be in jail by election day (though, admittedly, that's not stopping Donald Trump).
My Guess: I'm going to guess he doesn't resign unless he gets a plea deal...but that he does ultimately get a plea deal & resigns and doesn't run again. He won't win (Democrats won't tolerate having their own Trump), and his best bet to get he and his wife lighter sentences would be to go to the Spiro Agnew route: resign & promise never to hold office again in exchange for reduced sentences.
Who He Is: Sanders is a Vermont institution, going back decades in the Green Mountain State. But he's most well-known nationally for making two high-profile runs for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016 & 2020...in both cases he ended up getting second place.
Why He Might Run: Sanders is, despite his protestations, a career politician in the vein of Dianne Feinstein or Chuck Grassley. He has been in politics for so long, it's the only thing he appears to like doing, and after his two presidential runs, he has power & influence nationally that even for a senator is pretty incredible. He is currently the Chair of the Senate HELP (Health, Education, Labor, & Pensions committee), and with him so close to getting a Senate majority without the need of a filibuster...it'd be hard not to legacy-build.
Why He Won't Run: Bernie Sanders will be 83 on Election Day next year, and be signing up for a six-year gig. He just watched his colleague Dianne Feinstein go from beloved figure to national punchline within the progressive movement due to her diminishing health, which he is the most high-profile leader of right now. He has a perfect successor in Rep. Becca Balint, who modeled her run for Congress last year on Sanders himself-this would be a way to go out on top (though part of me wonders if his wife Jane might pull a Debbie Dingell and try to succeed him given she's a decade younger than Bernie).
My Guess: I think Sanders will end up retiring. Feinstein dying in office (I would imagine) shook him, particularly given how her doing so was greeted as a relief by some. Sanders has a reputation now that few wouldn't envy, and he can hand-pick his successor. I think he'll want to have some class, especially with no future presidential runs as options, and step aside.
Who She Is: Sinema is a first-term Democratic (excuse me, Independent) incumbent from Arizona, and the most perplexing figure in the US Senate. Once a campaigner for Ralph Nader, she has morphed into being a hyper-corporate moderate, one who has so turned off her party she switched to Independent because Rep. Ruben Gallego was going to beat her in the Democratic Primary.
Why She Might Run: Sinema, like Manchin, clearly loves the attention & power she's able to wield in her current iteration. Even by the standards of a US Senator, she's a bit of an egomaniac. And an egomaniac needs power in order to keep that going. She has been fundraising like someone who intends to run and has telegraphed ways that she thinks she could beat Gallego & Lake in a threeway race. Plus, unlike a few of these senators, at only 47 she's very young to be giving up on politics for someone who was just a state representative less than 20 years ago, and is now one of the most powerful women in America.
Why She Won't Run: I don't see a path to her winning. Some people would argue this, but I don't think that Democrats will want to abandon Gallego and Republicans will want to abandon Lake; both are strong embodiments of their party's belief system. Independents are a big deal in Arizona, sure, but they aren't "actually" independents, they're just registered that way. They're used to voting for a Democrat or a Republican, and while the appeal of an independent bid might be tempting, they ultimately won't want to waste their vote, and Sinema's polling numbers aren't great.
My Guess: Sinema is a mystery, so part of me has no clue. But if I had to bet...I think she'll run. Sinema is weird, going from a hard-fought Senate contest in 2018 to getting third place in her reelection bid feels like the perfect epitaph to her career.
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