Will Joe Manchin Run for President?

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV)

As hard as it is to believe, there was once a time that we didn't talk that much in American politics about Joe Manchin.  Manchin has held public office since the mid-1980's, but didn't come to the US Senate until he was 63, approaching retirement age for most Americans.  Even then, Manchin was not the most moderate member of the Democratic caucus (that title would've belonged to Sen. Ben Nelson), and only really came into play thanks to two events.  The first, expected at the time but shocking in retrospect, was his election to the US Senate in 2018, winning a second full term in the Senate, and then the second was the shocking victories of Raphael Warnock & Jon Ossoff in 2021, getting Chuck Schumer a 50/50 Senate majority for only the fourth time in American history.  Manchin, as the most moderate member of the Senate Democrats, was required for two years to be the decider on a host of different issues, and while his public musings frustrated the Democratic grassroots, his name ended up on major legislation ranging from the Inflation Reduction Act to the confirmation of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court.  In a state as red as West Virginia, Manchin has been a gift, albeit one on seemingly borrowed time.

That borrowed time is nearing its end.  While Manchin is no longer the decider in the Senate, which a recent string of confirmed judges that made it through without his vote has confirmed, he's still one of the most powerful men in the country.  At 75, it wouldn't be shocking to see him retire-his colleague to the north Debbie Stabenow is two years younger and she's calling it quits at the end of this term.  But Manchin is voting and fundraising like he's running for reelection.  He's making a point of staking a claim against Senate Democrats (it feels like Schumer is practically encouraging him to defy him), and he fundraised more than the entire field of Republican challengers that he would potentially face (bringing in $1.3 million in Q2).  He's acting, quite frankly, like someone who is running for reelection.

That is, if you don't count his weird flirting with No Labels, the third party movement that is bound-and-determined to play a major role in the 2024 presidential election.  The organization is, at best, extremely suspect.  It has an air of legitimacy and bipartisanship given that its membership & supporters include both Republicans (Larry Hogan, Pat McCrory) and Democrats (Joe Lieberman), but most of its funding comes from wealthy Republicans, including Harlan Crow, who has been embroiled in controversy for giving money to Clarence Thomas, while Thomas continues to support conservative causes important to Crow (if that sounds like a bribe to you, it sounds like one to me, even though I'll throw allegedly in here to cover my bases).  Given that Joe Biden won in large part in 2020 (and Democrats continued to do well in 2022) due to moderate Republicans supporting his candidacy, and a decline in third party voting compared to Hillary Clinton's defeat in 2016, having a prominent candidate in No Labels would be a big deal, and Manchin would count as a prominent candidate.  Quite frankly, a No Labels candidacy from Joe Manchin would make Donald Trump the favorite in the 2024 election.

Third party candidacies by sitting members of Congress are very rare.  Almost always when someone runs third party, they are doing so as someone who is not in office (and most times, they're running as someone who has never held public office).  In the past century, only two people have appeared as a third party candidate on a presidential ticket while sitting in Congress: Sen. Robert La Follette (WI) in 1924 & Rep. John Anderson (IL) in 1980.  In both cases, both men were Republicans, and in both cases there candidacy ultimately didn't make that much of a difference for their party (Republicans won both of those elections).  La Follette's candidacy was in part because both the Democrats & the Republicans had nominated conservatives, and he ran as a progressive (endorsed by the Socialist movements), while Anderson ran as a pragmatic conservative, focused on what we'd now call true libertarian reforms (he supported the ERA, gay rights, civil rights, and abortion rights, all of which put him well to the left of Ronald Reagan, but his views on tax reform would've put him to the right of Jimmy Carter, but again to Reagan's left).  At the end of the day, neither of these men could really be called "spoilers" in the way that someone like, say, Ralph Nader was in 2000.

It's clear to me what the No Labels movement would get out of Manchin, a known moderate with a huge national name ID.  It's not clear to me, precisely, what Manchin would get out of No Labels, however.  It is probable, and I think most likely, that this is all just a ruse.  Manchin seems pretty serious about pursuing another term, despite enormous odds against him (I don't see a path for him, to be honest), and knows that Republican base voters, which he'd need a sizable chunk of in West Virginia, love an "own the libs" moment.  This is definitely causing Democrats to worry and Republicans to laugh, which has kind of been Manchin's signature move until he quietly throws his weight behind major Democratic legislation.  My gut says that's what this is-Manchin, one last time, making Democrats nervous in hopes that it will score him some points, and as a Democrat, I support that (as long as it's what it is)-a Senate with Joe Manchin in it is better than one without him in it given who will replace him, even if he's a frequent headache.  But if Manchin puts his name in, it could very well reelect Donald Trump...hence why Democrats will continue to worry as Manchin flirts with their worst nightmare.