Every cycle, political observers, of which I count myself, will look at the landscape months out and proclaim certain seats to to be inevitably going to flip or go into the other party’s hands. That’s certainly what most everyone thought when it came to New Jersey’s 7thcongressional district this cycle. New Jersey, despite Democrats dominating the state’s politics, during redistricting actually ended up sacrificing one of their incumbents, Rep. Tom Malinowski who rode into office in 2018 amidst the blue wave of that year, to shore up several other incumbents (namely Andy Kim, Mikie Sherrill, & Josh Gottheimer all of whom got safe districts that went for President Biden by double digits).
Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ)
It made sense, after all, to sacrifice Malinowski. In 2020, Malinowski won by just over a point in a district that went for President Biden by 10-points, and Malinowski has been plagued by scandal. He has been investigated by the Ethics Committee for illegally trading stocks, and it was found that there was substantial evidence that he did, in fact, break the law. He also had a surefire, top-tier opponent, Tom Kean, Jr., who ran against him in 2020 (nearly winning), and arguably the most important Republican in the state over the past 20 years to not hold federal or statewide office. Kean served as Senate Minority Leader from 2008-2022, was the Republican Senate nominee in 2006, and is the namesake son of beloved former New Jersey Governor Tom Kean. In a district that Joe Biden only won by 4.5-points, it felt like Malinowski was becoming a sacrificial lamb, an easy out so that Democrats could guarantee that their remaining incumbents would get layup victories (saving them potentially millions in DCCC advertising).
But then something funny happened…while much of 2022 had Democrats suffering & struggling to stay relevant, the Dobbs decision changed everything for Democrats, a milestone that could well be on par with the Clinton impeachment and the 9/11 attacks in terms of bucking normal midterm behavior. New Jersey’s largest firefighter’s union this past week endorsed Malinowski for reelection, despite having endorsed Kean in 2020 when the latter had a much weaker position…in theory. Unions don’t usually needlessly tick off candidates they’ve already won over without reason…and the political chattering class on Twitter pointed out after the announcement that, while New Jersey-7 is listed as “Tilts/Lean Republican” on a lot of websites, this felt generous to Kean at this point. While this is one of the rare races where the Republicans have the rock star candidate & the Democrats have the lackluster one, the college-educated bent of the district and its mild blue flavoring (like I said, Biden did win the district) seem to indicate that this is probably a Tossup, potentially even veering into Tilt Democratic territory if Democrats' fortunes remain what they are, with Malinowski (should he win) staging a staggering comeback in the process.
Candidates beat waves or expectations all the time, that’s nothing new. There were Republicans like John Katko & Brian Fitzpatrick in 2018 who won in districts that Hillary Clinton won while their colleagues in similar districts were losing by double-digits. Malinowski winning wouldn’t be that shocking, and one additional win is a drop in the bucket-it’s unlikely that one race will make the difference between Nancy Pelosi & Kevin McCarthy.
But here’s the thing-it’s not just a drop-in-the bucket. This past week, polling came out indicating that Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH), after the Republicans nominated a hardcore MAGA supporter in a light blue Biden district, was leading by 5-points. Rep. Matt Cartwright, despite representing a district that went to Donald Trump by 3-points, continues to poll well in his rural Pennsylvanian district, as does Elissa Slotkin in a district Biden won by less-than-a-point. And newly-elected Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) is showing very strong runoff numbers in her district as two Republicans tear each other to shreds.
There is no guarantee that all of these districts go blue, but you can’t deny that the Democrats have good news for all five them, all five being districts that SHOULD be going red in a normal midterm environment. We don’t talk about the House very often on this blog primarily because with 435 seats up every two years, honestly it’s hard to put into the kind of article we have on this blog. But it cannot be denied that the Republicans appear to be leaving a lot of easy wins on the table in the past couple of weeks. Losing these five seats in a normal election wouldn’t matter (it’s rare that the House majority comes down to such a small number), but at what point do all of the seats that Republicans are making considerably harder on themselves give Democrats an opening at the House? A world where Malinowski, Pappas, Cartwright, Slotkin, & Peltola are all sworn in in January seems to me like a world where they’d be sworn into a majority given the kinds of districts they represent…just how many easy wins can Republicans give up before their assumed majority is put at risk?
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