But we are less than sixty days away from Election Day 2022, and I will admit-I'm stumped. I've written multiple versions of "I don't know what's happening" and as a result I'm not entirely sure what to write about anymore until we either have some version of actual movement or news in a major race or until we are close enough I can give my final predictions. But I'm not going to just not talk politics with nine weeks to go, so we're going to unearth this novelty article idea again for 2022. I will admit that I think that the most likely scenario of these four is some combination of #2 & #3, but all four remain deeply plausible. I hope you enjoy.
(As a reminder-this is just a hypothetical...any quotes are fictional and not real)
Despite public polling showing a potentially competitive election, Americans reverted to form in the midterm elections, sending a stinging rebuke to President Biden amid recession worries by putting Republicans in charge of both houses of Congress. Though House Democrats are still waiting for results in California & Arizona, their majority is no more as at least 30 Democratic seats have gone to the Republicans, including the longest-serving woman in the US House Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who lost to JR Majewski, who was in attendance at the riots on the Capitol on January 6th.
For the second cycle in a row, public polling vastly overestimated the number of Democratic supporters, with many major news networks chastising leading polling firms for indicating a close election when, like in 2020, Democratic support was nowhere near as strong as polls indicated. Republicans netted three Senate seats in Georgia, Arizona, & Nevada last night, though a potential recount in New Hampshire should deprive them of a fourth as Sen. Maggie Hassan is expected to survive a tight contest. Among the freshmen members of Mitch McConnell's new majority are television personality Mehmet Oz, who was elected the new senator from Pennsylvania despite polling as recent as Sunday indicating he was down in polls by 6-7 points.
Though out-of-office, former President Donald Trump was very much on the ballot, and wins across the country for his party likely won't sway him from making a third attempt at the Oval Office. Indeed, Trump, who reportedly spent most of the morning calling newly-elected Republicans, seemed jovial despite rumors that an obstruction of justice charge could be levied at him from the Justice Department as early as next week. Republicans rallied behind the former president in their acceptance speeches. Gov-Elect Kari Lake of Arizona stated "we will soon correct the great injustice of the 2020 presidential election" while Gov-Elect Doug Mastriano of Pennsylvania stated that he would spend his first months in office setting up an election task force, focusing on ways to address "widespread voter fraud" in the Keystone State that, according to Mastriano "led to Joe Biden being illegally elected president."
Democratic leaders sounded tired-but-optimistic that they would be able to find common ground with Republicans, knowing they still have the White House, but first they needed to find common ground with each other. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she had not made final plans on if she would step down from her role as leader, but is widely expected to announce her Congressional resignation effective at the end of this Congress. Moderate House Democrats, who lost much of their ranks in the election, were livid on a call with Pelosi this morning, with at least one defeated Texas Democratic congressman openly suggesting that "woke politics cost us our majority, and they're going to reelect Trump!"
Chuck Schumer appeared likely to run for another term as Minority Leader, though it wasn't clear after losing at least three seats whether he would go unchallenged. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren was publicly very critical of Schumer's time as leader, particularly his inability to get more judicial nominees through. Warren said this morning on MSNBC, "We have over 30 federal court nominations that we haven't voted on, and at least half of those haven't had judiciary hearings...McConnell is going to use every trick in the book to slow-walk these appointments, and it's been clear to our side for months that this might happen-where was the urgency from Chuck Schumer?" Warren said she would decide later this week whether or not she would officially make a play to challenge Schumer as leader, but her warnings about McConnell seem apt. A leaked quote from a Republican conference call said that McConnell would not hold judiciary hearings on any Biden appointments saying "the American people have spoken, and they don't want Joe Biden's radical agenda changing our Courts."
Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy will become the 53rd House Speaker after Republicans won back the US House last night, but who would lead the Senate remained murky. Though votes were still being counted in some West Coast states, House Republicans had gained at least 15 seats across the Midwest and South last night, ensuring that McCarthy will go into the next Congress with a majority. The size of his majority may matter greatly, as already members of his caucus, including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Rep-Elect JR Majewski of Ohio, have publicly stated that they won't support McCarthy's bid for Speaker unless he guarantees that they can start impeachment hearings for President Biden and Attorney General Merrick Garland. Indeed, multiple Republicans were seen on Fox News and Newsmax this morning suggesting that in addition to impeachment hearings against Biden & Garland, they would be launching congressional investigations into a wide variety of figures, including the president's son Hunter, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Dr. Anthony Fauci, and Rep. Liz Cheney, who lost a primary for reelection earlier this year. Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert even indicated that she would introduce legislation to ban members of "the Squad" including Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez & Ilhan Omar, from being able to sit on any committees. Current House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to announce later this week that she will step down from her role given the Democrats have lost their majority.
We will discover who won the Senate in a few weeks, as no party secured a clear majority of seats. Republicans picked up a Senate seat in Nevada, where incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto lost a state that Joe Biden won just two years ago, but slim victories for Sen. Mark Kelly (AZ) and Sen-Elect John Fetterman (PA) kept hope alive for Democrats thanks to no candidate securing a majority in Georgia, where former football star Herschel Walker led with 49.8% of the vote, just a few points shy of beating incumbent-Sen. Raphael Warnock outright. Despite the Senate still being in play, the loss of Cortez Masto combined with defeats in Ohio, North Carolina, & Wisconsin suggested a sense of melancholy for Democrats in the Senate, as public polling indicated they would perform better than this, though for the second cycle in the row it appears that polling firms did not successfully account for Republican enthusiasm, a stark problem for the industry as we approach the 2024 presidential primaries.
The nation's statehouses stayed largely static last night, with Democrats picking up seats in Maryland & Massachusetts, while Republicans won blue seats in Nevada, Kansas, & Wisconsin; Oregon will likely go to a recount, as Republican State House Minority Leader Chritine Drazan led State House Speaker Tina Kotek by just over 500 votes with at least some precincts still waiting to report. Former President Donald Trump spent the morning calling governors of key swing states, and indeed several of them mentioned him in their victory speeches last night. Gov-Elect Kari Lake of Arizona said "Donald Trump won in 2020...and as your governor, I'll make sure he wins for keeps in 2024!" Trump, despite potentially facing indictments from the Justice Department later this month, appears that he will announce a third bid for the White House by the end of the year, and public polling indicates that he is the current favorite in the GOP primaries.
Election 2022 is finally over, and the result is a split decision. Though he was waiting for results in California, Arizona, & Alaska, where several House incumbents looked to be on the cusp of losing, it appears that Rep. Kevin McCarthy has secured at least 218 House seats, and likely will have about 225-230 seats when all the votes are counted. It was not clear, however, that he would be able to secure the Speaker's gavel as the California congressman reportedly spent much of Tuesday night whip-counting, and according to insiders, does not have the commitment of 218 members yet, with several members of his caucus, including Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert, & Matt Gaetz who have made their Speaker votes conditional on McCarthy impeaching President Biden, Vice President Harris, & Attorney General Merrick Garland, as well as opening investigations into Hunter Biden and Dr. Anthony Fauci. Moderates in his caucus, though, are less interested in this path. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick said on CNN this morning that "Republicans will be less focused on retribution, and more in showing the American people a conservative approach to governance." Fitzpatrick expressed optimism that Democrats & Republicans could find common-ground, though they will do so without Nancy Pelosi, who is expected to step down as Democratic leader later this week.
Common ground will be necessary given the Democrats will definitely have a majority in the Senate next session, though it wasn't clear yet by how much. Democrats won at least fifty seats in the Senate last night, reelecting all of their incumbents while also picking up a Senate seat in Pennsylvania, where Lt. Gov. John Fetterman defeated television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz. However, in Georgia, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) was unable to secure 50% of the vote despite winning a plurality in the Peach State, so he will face former Heisman Trophy winner Herschel Walker in a runoff in December. While the majority is not in play, the stakes are still high-if Warnock is able to win, the Democrats will take an outright 51-seat majority, meaning they will be able to move Senate appointments, particularly judicial appointments, through the upper chamber considerably faster. Both Senate Leaders Schumer & McConnell are expected to stay on as leaders.
The race for the nation's governorships looked tight still this morning, with both Arizona & Wisconsin headed to likely recounts. In Arizona, Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs was expected to pull ahead later today as votes in Maricopa County continue to be counted, while Gov. Tony Evers in Wisconsin is behind by about 3000 votes, though reports this morning that not all votes were counted in deep blue Dane County kept hope alive for the incumbent. Outside of the still outstanding results in Arizona & Wisconsin, Democrats netted two governorships in Massachusetts & Maryland, while Republicans picked up the Kansas statehouse. Former President Donald Trump, who is expected to be indicted on multiple counts related to his handling of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate, was seen on Fox News this morning claiming mass election fraud in Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, & Pennsylvania, a message echoed by candidates in those state. Defeated Republican gubernatorial challenger Doug Mastriano said in Harrisburg this morning, "the Democrats will do whatever it takes to ensure democracy is destroyed under fake President Biden" leading to worries of violence similar to what was experienced in the wake of the 2020 presidential election.
In one of the most stunning moments in recent political history, Democrats held both the House and the Senate, making President Joe Biden the first president since George W. Bush to gain seats in both houses for his party in a midterm. Despite public polling indicating this was possible (indeed, public polling headed into the election indicated the Democrats were in reach of keeping both majorities), most pundits assumed that the polling was inaccurate in a similar fashion to how it had been in 2020, and had expected at least one house of Congress to flip. However, a combination of a recovering economy, reaction to the reversal of Roe vs. Wade, and the continued presence of Donald Trump in the national conversation effectively nullified Republicans' advantages, and led to Democrats staying in control of Congress for the remainder of Biden's first term in office.
House Democrats were still waiting on results in California, where they are expected to beat three incumbents based on pundit projections, but it appeared likely that they would net 5-6 seats on top of their current majority. This was based off of unexpectedly strong performance by their incumbents. As of this morning only three House Democratic incumbents (Al Lawson of Florida, Cindy Axne of Iowa, & Tom O'Halleran of Arizona) had lost, while twice that number seemed likely to go down in defeat amongst Republicans, assuming Democratic leads in California hold. Despite indications she might retire at the end of this year, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to stay on as leader for a fifth term, reportedly excited about the prospects of codifying abortion rights, gay marriage, & access to contraception into law with the increased majorities in the US House. Republican House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has not made a public statement yet, indicating that he was not conceding despite all major networks calling the House majority for the Democrats. According to reports, former President Trump is exploring throwing his support behind a leadership bid by either Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana or Elise Stefanik of New York, frustrated with McCarthy's inability to secure a majority. Indeed, with over two dozen members of his caucus publicly calling on cable news or social media this morning for McCarthy to resign if he doesn't win a majority, it is possible he will not be able to stay on past this Congress as the head of the House Republicans.
Senate Democrats have netted at least three Senate seats last night, a huge victory for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, now afforded some breathing room after two years with a 50/50 majority. All incumbent Democrats won reelection, including Sen. Raphael Warnock who barely avoided a runoff in Georgia, while they picked up seats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, & North Carolina. Democrats might win an additional seat in Ohio, where with more than 4.5 million votes cast, Rep. Tim Ryan is leading by just over 1000 votes against conservative author JD Vance; the contest is expected to go to a recount once ballots from all precincts are counted. With at least 53 senators in his caucus, it is widely expected that Schumer will be able to carve out exceptions in the filibuster to preserve abortion rights and pass wide-sweeping voting reforms; indeed, some pundits privately wondered whether Schumer would eliminate the filibuster all-together. Despite the losses in his caucus, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is not expected to face a serious challenger for the Republican leadership post.
Democrats enjoyed a strong performance in the nation's gubernatorial contests, losing no seats and picking up statehouses in Arizona, Maryland, & Massachusetts. Democrats could potentially pickup a fourth in Georgia, but they will have to wait a few weeks to find out, as incumbent-Gov. Brian Kemp came in just shy of 50% of the vote against former State House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, setting up a third vote between the two in December, as they also faced off in 2018. Despite calls from all major networks, Republican candidates in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, & Kansas refused to concede to defeat this morning, and former President Donald Trump, who is expected to face indictment on multiple charges related to his storage of classified documents at his Florida home, decried the results on Newsmax this morning, proclaiming that Republicans "should not accept these fake news results and let the radical Biden administration take away our victories." He said this despite no evidence of mass voter fraud.
No comments:
Post a Comment