All right, we didn't do any political articles last week, and honestly there's not a lot to report on this week. I focus on this blog in terms of electoral politics, not necessarily covering the politics of actual governance, and for the last few weeks, that's been the focus. The government, though not as efficiently as some would hope is actually working-we passed a gigantic Covid relief bill that seems certain to go to President Biden's desk, and it appears that Sen. Joe Manchin is willing to allow some concessions on the filibuster, perhaps pushing it back to being an actual speaking filibuster so that the Democrats can pass HR-1 through the Senate, a monumental bill that seemed unthinkable a few weeks ago. I could write about Manchin and his fellow moderate Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, but there's not a lot of interesting things to say from the outside. Manchin seems to genuinely like the position of power he's in, able to pick-and-choose what goes into bills, and while I question his judgment (the minimum wage bill is one thing since it had no chance of passing without filibuster reform, the transgender student rights bill is another since were it not for Lisa Murkowski that would've passed, basically making the entire Covid bill untenable to the House...Manchin either knew Murkowski was doing that or seriously put his power at risk on that one), Manchin seems to be playing the game well. He's got the Democrats of the country angry at him...while he's at-the-end-of-the-day backing most of the bills that matter. In a similar way he's playing the same game Susan Collins did during the Trump years-appearing moderate, while ultimately backing the party. Sinema's play is unusual (I think the criticisms of her flippant vote against the minimum wage & her curtsy were tacky, and I do think it's worth asking if Arizona progressives can flip the governor's races & hold Mark Kelly's seat in 2022 whether or not a more progressive senator can hold her seat), but she is playing a similar game to Manchin-getting what she wants while ultimately supporting the Democratic priorities.
So since there isn't a lot of new news on the elections front, I thought it was time we finished up another "State Of" time capsule this week. We did this with the Senate a few weeks ago, but we haven't done it with the governors or House races yet. The House is impossible to do this with in a serious way right now. With once-a-decade redistricting coming up, there are too many variables to say anything with certainty. Not only do we not know precisely how many seats each state will have (though we have guesses), we also don't know who will be drawing the districts in each state. It's possible that if HR-1 passes (and Joe Manchin gave a tell Sunday that he's willing to negotiate the filibuster a bit to ensure it does) that partisan gerrymandering could be a thing of the past, in which case the race for the House in 2022 would be totally upended.
But we can do the governors races, and that's where we're at today. From 2021-22, 38 states will hold their governors elections, and they're largely split down the middle with 20 Republicans & 18 Democrats up. Obviously there are a few dynamics at play here. The first is it's a governor's race and not a federal race-those play by a different partisan math. States like Maryland, Kansas, & Massachusetts have governors of a party they wouldn't dream of voting for in a Senate contest, and that could continue in 2022 even in an era of lessened ticket-splitting. We also don't know what the issues of the day will be in November, much less next year. Issues like Covid vaccination, mask mandates, & school closures may last in the public memory, but they (hopefully) won't be top-of-mind come next year, as President Biden's swift vaccination rollout (swifter in some states than others...looking at you Georgia & Alabama) could cause herd immunity as early as late-Summer (and in some states with better rollout plans, it could be even earlier). So keep that in mind as we move ahead-I'll base this in part on issues right now, but more on where I think the races will head, as partisanship & a potentially recovering economy may matter more this November & next as people head-to-the-polls. As always, the #1 state on this list is the one I think is most likely to flip.
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| Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) |
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| Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX) |
I try to keep these conversations as nonpartisan as possible, as I don't want to let my opinions color my judgment of how these races will shake out (as you'll see, there's an equal number of Democrats in this Top 10 as there are Republicans). That being said, if Gov. Greg Abbott loses, it'll be because he has earned the title of "Worst Governor in America." Weeks after his citizenry was freezing to death (literally) in their homes because he was incapable of preparing his state's power grid for a blizzard, he lifted the mask mandate at a time when Texas is #46 in vaccine rollout, risking considerably more disease & death, and potentially prolonging the pandemic as a result if the increased cases lead to a mutation that the vaccines can't fight. The Democrats are once again looking to Rep. Beto O'Rourke as their savior here, and it looks increasingly plausible that the former congressman will give the race a run after his near-miss Senate bid in 2018. Abbott is a Republican in a state that leans red, which is why he's #10, and it's possible that partisanship (and bad memories) might save him, but this is not a state that is trending his way, and at some point Blexas is inevitable (Texas is too diverse & changing to not have Democrats win in a similar fashion to Arizona in 2018 or Georgia in 2021). It's just a question of if it's Abbott that causes the breakthrough.
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| Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R-NV) |
Nevada was the one Hillary state in 2020 that looked like it might slip from Joe Biden's grip, and as a result it's one that I think Democrats need to focus on. Democrats assume that the Latino voting block is uniform at their own peril, and obviously in order to win they need Latino men to take Nevada. Gov. Steve Sisolak is (so far) attracting more high-profile challengers than Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, which intimates to me that he's more vulnerable than she is, with both former Sen. Dean Heller & Rep. Mark Amodei looking at the race. The bigger problem for the the GOP in 2022 in beating out Democratic incumbents in Biden states is that Trump did lose here-they can't just run Trump Redux candidates and assume that trend lines will save them. This is a problem particularly if former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who is a Trump devotee & the most bombastic candidate available, gets into the race, which he may well might. Sisolak (or Cortez Masto) would be heavy favorites against him, and this will move down the list if he's the nominee.
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| Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) |
Gov. Ron DeSantis is the exact reason why I don't use my own personal metrics for a candidate when I assess if they are going to win or not. DeSantis has attracted near constant controversy for the poor way that he has handled the Covid pandemic, putting people's lives in danger with lax social distancing & mask usage, but the state does seem to like him, and the state GOP worships him. DeSantis, if Donald Trump doesn't run in 2024, is one of the frontrunners at this point for the Republican nomination, and so the Democrats definitely want to take him out. Their best opportunity to do so would be State Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, currently the only statewide-elected Democrat, but DeSantis will be tough to beat in Florida, and Fried will need to find some way to stop the hemorrhaging of Latino voters in the Miami area that cost Joe Biden the state last year...there's a reason that Democrats haven't won this seat in a generation.
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| Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) |
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) has become a folk hero to Democrats in a similar fashion to DeSantis for the Republicans, and I kind of put them in the same boat electorally. Whitmer is a bit more vulnerable if only because Michigan has more recently elected a Republican as governor, but unlike DeSantis with Fried, it's not clear the Republicans have an obvious choice to run against Whitmer. With former Secretary of State Candice Miller out (Miller is the only candidate who could conceivably have cleared-the-field), it's possible that the Republicans could have a bloody primary between someone like State Sen. Patrick Colbeck, a devoted Trump acolyte, and Rep. Lisa McClain, who may be more palatable to the swing voters who backed Trump in 2016 but went with Biden in 2020. Who ends up taking on Whitmer will dictate to a large extent how vulnerable she ends up being in the general election.
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| State House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D-GA) |
Georgia is a weird state, in that while it is a Republican-held contest, one that has an incumbent that will run for reelection, it's the Democrat that I'm most certain of for who will be on the ballot next November. Former State House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams has become a national celebrity in the past year, first for helping to flip the state blue on a presidential level, and then for helping to flip both of the state's Senate seats. She turned down both of those Senate seats & a cabinet position with her eye clearly on a rematch against Gov. Brian Kemp (R), and there's no way the Democrats don't give it to her at this point. Abrams' opponent could be Kemp, but Donald Trump's attacks on Kemp have made him vulnerable to a right-wing challenger, though the most prominent option, former Rep. Doug Collins, has his eye on a challenge to freshman Sen. Raphael Warnock (D). Kemp would be tougher to beat if he made it through to the general, and Abrams has her work cut out for her...but Georgia turned blue twice in the last year, and so the Democrats have a recipe to get a third victory (and put Abrams on a surefire path to a national campaign in the next decade) if they can get the ingredients right.
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| Chief of Staff Reince Priebus (R-WI) |
Gov. Tony Evers (D) is a low-key guy, someone who was not the Democrats' first choice in 2018, but whose win has helped keep the Badger State from going full-on red tilt despite it being competitive for the presidency. Evers is in a situation similar to Gretchen Whitmer-his vulnerability will depend in large part on who the Republicans pick to go against him. I think, personally, that someone like former Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch would be the best bet for the GOP, a more establishment Republican who could run the kind of campaign that made Scott Walker a force here for a decade. But it's possible that Kleefisch will feel too moderate, and the Republicans will go with someone like Reince Priebus, Donald Trump's former Chief of Staff. Priebus will find it impossible to shake Donald Trump in this race, and he might not want to (he'll be an asset in the primary), but while Wisconsin was close in 2020, it flipped for a reason-Trump's brand of politics wasn't popular there, and Evers can win with just Joe Biden voters, thus he'll be hoping for someone who clings to Trump as much as possible.
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| Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) |
We now enter the tossup races. Arizona has transformed since Gov. Doug Ducey was first elected in 2014 from a red state to a purple one, one that could be blue if the Republicans aren't careful. Like Georgia, Nevada, & Wisconsin, Arizona comes paired with a competitive Senate race, so it'll be harder for ticket-splitting & it will be difficult to focus on local issues. That could be a problem for the Republicans. Ducey probably would prefer a more staid choice like State Treasurer Kimberly Yee or his former Chief of Staff Kirk Adams as the Republican nominee, but it's probable that Rep. Andy Biggs will run somewhere on the Republican ticket, and considering his strong hug of Donald Trump, could be the nominee. The Arizona Republicans have avoided an unelectable candidate so far (keeping races close), but Biggs could sink the entire ticket, even if he's not in the governor's race, because he'll force the R nominee to side with him or risk a schism in the party. Democrats have been weirdly silent about their intentions here, despite it being a plum promotion opportunity, with names like Secretary of State Katie Hobbs & Rep. Greg Stanton floated but no one forming an exploratory committee yet. That will change though, especially once Biggs makes his announcement official.
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| Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D-PA) |
This is slightly higher that Arizona for two reasons. The first is that Pennsylvania has a weird history of alternating between Democrats & Republicans every eight years, and it would be time for the Republicans to take over again after eight years of Gov. Tom Wolf. The second is that the Pennsylvania GOP doesn't (currently) have someone like Biggs threatening to get into the race. The GOP does have these figures, one of them being State Sen. Doug Mastriano (who was a key ally of Rudy Giuliani in perpetrating the lie that the 2020 election was not legitimate), but none of them have announced or started to attract the kind of attention that Biggs has in Arizona. If one does, though, it's possible that Democrats could extend their position in Pennsylvania. Despite there being two spots for ambitious Democrats to pursue a statewide race in 2022 (unlike in Arizona, where the Senate nomination is sewn up by Mark Kelly), the Democrats basically have their nominee here in Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who has all-but-announced for the seat & with Lt. Gov. John Fetterman running for the Senate, is the de facto frontrunner.
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| Gov. Laura Kelly (D-KS) |
The most vulnerable incumbent governor in the country in 2022 is Laura Kelly. Kelly won in 2018 in part because of an unpopular outgoing Brownback administration & in part because Secretary of State Kris Kobach, her opponent, was unpalatable to large swaths of Kansas moderate Republicans. But 2020 proved that Kelly was the anomaly, and that the blue-leaning Kansas City suburbs weren't enough to make the state purple or even pink. Kelly has a long list of potential opponents, including former Gov. Jeff Colyer, who is already running, and former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who obviously has his sights set on a future bid for president, and will need a perch in which to run. Kelly isn't DOA here-Kansas has reelected Democratic incumbents, and it's possible someone like Pompeo, who has a lot of potential scandal in his closet from the Trump administration, might be beatable in such a scenario, but she is vulnerable in a state that Republicans will (rightly) view as their best pickup opportunity.
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| Rep. Anthony Brown (D-MD) |
On the flip side there's Maryland. While incumbent Gov. Larry Hogan (R) is popular, he's also term-limited, and Maryland is one of the bluest states in the nation. It's difficult to see someone finding the balance that Hogan did in the state, and the Republicans will need to both get a nominee who has Hogan's more moderate sensibilities (difficult in the modern day GOP), and a lousy Democratic challenger. I don't think either of these things will happen, and as a result the big question is whom the Democrats chose as their nominee. With both Senate seats full, ambitious House Democrats like Dave Trone, Anthony Brown, John Sarbanes, & John Delaney could all run, as could statewide Comptroller Peter Franchot (he's actually already in the race), or former DNC Chair Tom Perez. Whomever gets the nomination would start next year as the heavy frontrunner in the one race on this list that escapes even a Tossup status-right now it's a Lean/Likely Democratic contest.
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