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| Soon-to-be Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) |
But first, I want to set up our first State of the Senate by predicting which contests are most likely to decide who will control the Senate in the back half of Joe Biden's first term for president. The Democrats, after the swearing-in of Sens-Elect Raphael Warnock & Jon Ossoff later this month, will be 50/50, so Republicans will need to win only one Senate seat to win control of the Senate. To give you an idea of how accurate these predictions end up being in advance, here's a peak at our November 2018 predictions article compared to what races ended up being the actual closest:
November 2018 Predictions (Most Likely to Flip):
1. Alabama
2. Colorado
3. Arizona
4. Maine
5. North Carolina
6. Montana
7. Georgia
8. New Hampshire
9. Michigan
10. Iowa
November 2020 Actuals (the Top 5 flipped control):
1. Alabama
2. Colorado
3. Arizona
4. Georgia-B
5. Georgia
6. Michigan
7. North Carolina
8. Minnesota
9. New Mexico
10. Iowa
(Note: Georgia-B wasn't open when we wrote this in November 2018. If you didn't include this in the Nov-20 list, Maine would be 10th)
As you can see, seven of the ten races remained on the list, and Maine would've been on the list were it not for the Georgia special election. From our initial list, Steve Bullock's candidacy didn't takeoff, and no Republican was able to challenge Jeanne Shaheen despite some big names early on in the cycle. Minnesota & New Mexico might surprise some, but the former was a targeted presidential battleground seat (something we should keep in mind is important even with lesser candidates) and the latter was an open seat, which are always more competitive.
In creating our first 2022 list, then, I focused on a couple of things. First, we know now that at least two seats will be open (possibly there will be more); both are ranked high on this list for that reason. We also know that ticket-splitting has become increasingly uncommon, and that all the money in the world will not turn a blue or red state against an incumbent, even if that incumbent isn't well-liked, if they're partisan enough. So I have resisted listing figures like Rand Paul on this list, despite him being disliked by Democrats (and that his opponent will surely get a lot of money in a similar fashion to Amy McGrath & Jaime Harrison in 2020). With one exception I'll explain below, I've only picked states that either Joe Biden or Donald Trump won by less than 10-points, and I'll be honest right now-I don't think all of these seats will be competitive. Unless something unusual happens beyond the list (like a surprise retirement, primary victor, or scandal), it's probable that Democrats should focus only on the top 6-8 races on this list, and not try to reach like they did in 2020 (where tens of millions of dollars were essentially burned).
I will detail more below, but I figure that's enough introduction. As always, #1 on this list is the seat I think is most likely to flip. Let's begin...
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| Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) |
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| Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) |
I debated between Iowa & Alaska for this spot on the list, and settled on the latter because of the weirdness of this race. This is the only seat on this Top 10 that went for one candidate by more than ten-points (Donald Trump just barely cleared that distinction in 2020), but Alaska has now adapted to a Ranked-Choice Voting system, which will allow the Top 4 candidates to advance to the runoff regardless of party, and then RCV will set in for the general. This should help Sen. Lisa Murkowski hold the seat, as while she might not be the top choice of Republicans, Alaska's significant number of Libertarians & Democrats would outrank over someone like former Gov. Sarah Palin, who has publicly flirted with a run here. About the only situation where Murkowski would be vulnerable is if the Democrats ran a serious contender against her (like Dr. Al Gross) and Palin ran against them, putting Murkowski in a situation where she might end up in third in a RCV (thus being eliminated if she was the majority of voters' second choice, and setting up an opening for the Democrats against Palin). This is unlikely to happen, but it's a testament to how few competitive seats I see from this vantage point that the possibility of it happening makes me put it at #10 on this list (I don't think we will see very many competitive Senate races in 2022).
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| Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) |
Sen. Rob Portman is, like Murkowski, a heavy favorite for reelection. But Portman is running in a state that Trump won by less-than 10 points, and unlike Chuck Grassley, would potentially be vulnerable in a primary. The focus for the past two months has been on Gov. Mike DeWine (R) getting a Trump challenger from his right, but Portman did vote to certify the Trump results in November, and if that becomes an issue in the coming months, could attract a hard-right conservative challenger. I don't think this will happen, but it's a possibility and one of the biggest question marks of the Trump era-could we see a repeat of 2010 & 2012 where Republicans lost hard-right challenges in states like Colorado, Delaware, & Indiana...which resulted in Democrats taking/holding those seats. Democrats will need a palatable candidate, someone like Rep. Tim Ryan or Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, to run, but more to the point they'll need luck-Portman is going to be impossible to beat, and he's going to run for reelection. The only way they actually beat him is if he loses a primary.
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| Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) |
Unlike Portman, Sen. Marco Rubio is in a state that was close in 2020. Florida is always close, though it tends to favor Republicans by small margins. While not as heavily as Ohio, I think this state should be considered a solid bet for Republicans. Rubio is also vulnerable to a far-right challenge, especially after his votes to certify this past week. Someone like Rep. Matt Gaetz or First Daughter Ivanka Trump could attempt to run against Rubio in the primary, and considering their tight affinity to President Trump, that would be a worry for Rubio. This is probably the only way that a Democrat could sneak into this race (though it's easier to see Rubio going down in a general than Portman). Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D) has been seen as a probable option for a while, and we could see former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell take a look at the race as well. But both women if they ran would be underdogs, and would require some luck to best Rubio, as Florida has a slight (but very real) red tilt.
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| Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) |
New Hampshire went for Joe Biden by 7-points in 2020, a very healthy margin & bigger than Hillary Clinton. Thus, the biggest question here is not about competitiveness, but about candidate recruitment. We saw in 2020 that candidate recruitment isn't a guarantee (just ask Steve Bullock), but as evidenced by Jeanne Shaheen's big victory, the state leans blue, and Sen. Maggie Hassan is probably fine unless incumbent-Gov. Chris Sununu (R) runs against her. This is not theoretical-one of Sununu's top advisors tweeted days after his boss had won a third term as governor to Hassan "hey Senator, what is it like serving in the United States Senate this days? asking for a friend," clearly indicating that Sununu is exploring a bid for this seat. Sununu would be a serious contender, though I'd still maintain after watching Bullock this past year that he'd be a slight underdog, and is surely on the top of the NRSC recruitment list. Other candidates may emerge (like former Sen. Kelly Ayotte), but Sununu will largely decide if Hassan will be a heavy or slight favorite in 2022.
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| Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) |
I debated between Slots 5 & 6, and I'm going with Nevada next because I think it's the race more likely to have an incumbent running. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) won a tight race in 2016, and Nevada remains a close race. In 2020, it was the Hillary state that President-Elect Biden came the closest to losing, and as a result Cortez Masto shouldn't take anything for granted. Going in her favor, though, is that most of the top Republicans in the state (Rep. Mark Amodei, Sen. Dean Heller, LG Mark Hutchison, & AG Adam Lexalt) all look more interested in the governor's race, and former Gov. Brian Sandoval (who'd probably be the favorite over Cortez Masto) has shown little interest in running. It's probable that one of these five names go against Cortez Masto, but unless it's Sandoval she'd start as a slight favorite, and potentially a big one if President Biden remains popular. However, with this seat and the next five, it's near certain that this race will be on this list November of next year, and it could get very close. To paraphrase elections expert Jon Ralston on his beloved state, in 2022 "they will matter."
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| Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) |
The first question when looking at Wisconsin is whether or not Sen. Ron Johnson will run for reelection. Johnson ultimately did not decide to vote against certification this week (he had publicly said he would), but unlike other Republicans, I doubt you could primary from the right-there's just not room. Johnson had stated that he does not intend to run for a second term, but has publicly waffled on this (he's also said he might run for governor). You could see a number of the people like Rep. Sean Duffy & former LG Rebecca Kleefisch get into this race if Johnson steps aside; it's possible former Gov. Scott Walker might also consider it if Johnson were to skip the contest. If he runs, though, it'll be a big race. Unlike the contests against McConnell & Graham, Johnson is a lightning rod for the left that actually is vulnerable in 2022. Though narrowly, this is a state that Joe Biden won, and one where they need to compete. Democrats are looking at a brutal 2024 map (never forget, maintaining control of the Senate is a game of chess, and you need to make sure you're paying attention to what's going to happen 2-4 years out as much as what will happen now). It's probable that the Democrats will lose at least three seats in 2024, and so they should attempt to pickup three seats in 2022 to make up for those losses; Wisconsin is the third likeliest of those seats to flip. Democrats that could go against Johnson are LG Mandela Barnes, State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, and Rep. Ron Kind, the latter of whom might see the Senate as an easier path to stay in Congress than his increasingly red House seat. Whether Johnson runs or not, the Democrats need to take this seat seriously-it will not only be crucial for 2022, but also 2024 or 2026 if they want any hope of winning majorities in those two years.
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| Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) |
We move into Arizona now, where the Democrats barely won for the presidency, and where we have one of two 2020 challengers trying to win a full-term. Sen. Mark Kelly beat incumbent-Sen. Martha McSally in 2022, and will need to prove that his gargantuan fundraising prowess & crossover appeal will work again in 2022, when the Democrats will have to take on a midterms (with a Dem president), and will be attempting to win the governor's mansion for the first time in almost two decades. Kelly's best opponent would've been Gov. Doug Ducey, but considering President Trump's attacks on Ducey, I think he would struggle to win a primary (unless Trump becomes a distant memory pretty quickly after leaving office). Everyone else wouldn't compare to Ducey, even people like Reps. Matt Salmon or David Schweikert, who won't have the same kind of crossover appeal that Republicans are starting to need in a state that has become more diverse & friendly to moderate Democrats. This seat could also be susceptible to a hard-right challenge. If State GOP Chair Kelli Ward were to run against Kelly, this race would slide down the list (and don't scoff-it's not out-of-the-question). Republicans will have to decide if they want purity politics in places like Arizona in 2022, or if they're willing to make concessions to try and take on newly-elected incumbents.
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| State Sen. Jeff Jackson (D-NC) |
North Carolina is an open seat, and so it's higher than Wisconsin or Arizona, both of which feel more "flippable" based on their presidential performance. This is the second of three seats that the Democrats need to win to have a shot at the majority in 2024, and a lot of that will depend on candidate selection. In 2020, Democrats biffed badly by picking State Sen. Cal Cunningham (whose marital issues likely cost him his win), and can't repeat the same mistake in 2022. There will be a lot of appetite after 2020 for the Democrats to consider an African-American candidate (since Raphael Warnock won in Georgia), but it's worth noting that the African-American population in North Carolina is not as large as it is in Georgia, and State Sen. Erica Smith (the most-mentioned name) did not do well against Cunningham in 2020. Other names on the Democratic side include State Sen. Jeff Jackson, Rep. Deborah Ross (who ran against incumbent-Sen. Richard Burr in 2016), and Attorney General Josh Stein. Republicans have a long list too, including Reps. Mark Walker & Dan Bishop, former Gov. Pat McCrory, and Donald Trump's daughter-in-law Lara. It's hard to tell which side has the advantage until we start getting an idea of who might run, but considering the close race in 2020, this will be a battleground open seat election.
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| Sen-Elect Raphael Warnock (D-GA) |
Senator-Elect Raphael Warnock surprised many on Tuesday not just by winning, but by winning by a sizable amount. When the votes are done, it appears that he will have won by more than not just Jon Ossoff, but also Thom Tillis & Gary Peters. This portends will for the Democrats, but we should not forget it was as recently as 2018 that Democrats came up short across-the-board in Georgia when it came to statewide candidates. Warnock will have a powerful ally in Stacey Abrams (whom he'll likely be running with on a statewide ticket as she seeks a gubernatorial rematch), but this will be a seat the Republicans will want to win back, and prove that 2020 Georgia was just a fluke, and not a pattern. It's too soon to speculate who might run here, though the Republicans have a deep bench both statewide and in their House delegation. One word of caution here-there is a chance that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, one of the most important believers of the QAnon conspiracy theory and a freshman House member, could run for this seat. That would set up a titanic and ugly campaign, but it would also make it considerably easier for Warnock to win-if there's a "Trump" ally that the Republicans should most worry about in any of these races, it's Greene who would move this from a Tossup to a Lean/Likely Democrat pretty quickly, and take their best shot at the majority off-the-table.
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| Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) |
Unlike last year, where Alabama stayed #1 every single list, I don't necessarily view any of these races as lost causes. But Pennsylvania will be hard to move from the Top 3 for most of the race unless the Democrats completely flatline in the midterms, as it has the recipe for a big race. Sen. Pat Toomey (R) is retiring, and as a result the Democrats have an open seat in a state that Joe Biden won in 2020. That's huge, and there's virtually no chance the Democrats can hold the Senate majority in 2024 if they don't win here. While a lot of names are being bandied, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) starts as the best option on the Democratic side. Fetterman cuts an atypical profile for a politician. He grew up extremely poor but eventually got a Harvard education, and at 6'8" cuts an imposing figure, and has a candor that has made him extremely popular with Twitter users (which should help with fundraising). He'd be the frontrunner for the nomination if he ran. On the Republican side, there is some chatter about former Rep. Ryan Costello running, but it's not clear whether Costello could win a primary against a Trump-supporter, and so someone like Reps. Guy Reschenthaler or Mike Kelly might be better-suited for the race (though of course that runs the risk of them trying to be Trump in a state Trump just lost). This is a race to watch, and an important contest not just for 2022, but also 2024 & 2026.
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