The State of the Governors

Frequently lost in the shuffle of an election year, particularly a presidential year, is that there is more to life than the District of Columbia.  We have taken a look at the Senate and the White House, but today we're going to continue our April looks at where the elections stand for the Governors races, as yes, there are a number of Governors' races this fall, and has been proven with the COVID pandemic this spring, who the governor is matters, and increasingly their ideology can have life-and-death consequences.  In our last Governors article, we had both the 2019 and 2020 elections, where the Democrats ended up netting one seat (Kentucky), with the other two races staying with their incumbent governors.  That puts the majority of governorships barely in the hands of the GOP; this obviously doesn't matter pragmatically, but it is worth noting since the Republicans have had that majority longer than they have their majorities in the Senate (2014) or White House (2016)-the Democrats have not held a majority of the governorships since 2010-can they pick up enough to tie or have the bigger number outright?  Let's find out; as always, the #1 seat is the contest I think is most likely to switch parties; because of the small number of contests, we'll only do a Top 5.

State Auditor Nicole Galloway (D-MO)

5. Missouri

Missouri joins this list more because three genuinely competitive races (the three contests in 2019) are off the list.  As you go forward, you're going to find a surprisingly large number of contests that heavily favor the incumbent party.  Missouri is on this list, however, instead of North Dakota, Utah, or West Virginia because it could plausibly get competitive.  For starters, Gov. Mike Parson (R) is facing voters for the first time at the top job-Eric Greitens' resignation in the middle of a sex scandal means that Parson wasn't elected to this job, and while his approval ratings are solid (49% in Q4), his handling of the COVID pandemic has drawn criticisms from some corners.  He also faces a real opponent.  State Auditor Nicole Galloway is the only statewide elected Democrat, and was able to hold that distinction in 2018 while Sen. Claire McCaskill was losing statewide.  Galloway is by far the best the Democrats could hope for here, but starts as an underdog.  There's little indication that Trump won't win Missouri in November, and as a result Galloway will have to win over his supporters.  That'll be tougher to do in a presidential election than a midterm, but I'm curious to see if Parson's handling of COVID makes him more vulnerable to Galloway.  As we'll see below, voters do appear capable of splitting their ballots.  (Previous Ranking: N/A)

Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH)

4. New Hampshire

Here's the thing.  Under almost any circumstance, Chris Sununu (R) would be favored to win this seat.  He is wildly popular, he's in a state that, while blue, isn't so blue that he should struggle, and New England has long developed crushes on Republican governors.  The reason I still put this on the list is A) he's a Republican running in a state that Biden is favored to win-always a risk in this "don't split your ticket" world and B) New Hampshire is quite prone to falling for waves.  We saw this in 2018 when Sununu's opponent did better-than-expected on election day, matching the higher end of her polling numbers despite limited national contribution.  Sununu has a real opponent in 2020 (Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky), one who will be better-prepared for this race than Molly Kelly was in 2018, but unless this becomes hyper-partisan (and it could), Sununu has to be considered the favorite.  (Previous Ranking: 5)

Education Secretary Rebecca Holcombe (D-VT)

3. Vermont

The same should be able to be said for Vermont Gov. Phil Scott (R).  Like Sununu, he's also a popular Republican governor in New England that should be fine for reelection.  Scott even has some advantages that Sununu doesn't.  For starters, he romped to an easy victory in 2018 over Christine Hallquist, and arguably the most compelling reason to vote against him (that if he won, he'd get to replace Bernie Sanders in the Senate) became moot when Sanders failed to secure the Democratic presidential nomination.  Scott is listed higher than Sununu because his state is so blue (Biden will probably win here by 20-30 points), and because he has genuinely decent candidates running against him.  Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman and Education Secretary Rebecca Holcombe are arguably more qualified than Hallquist, and come with a stronger incentive for party-liners to go for them.  Scott should be fine, but keep in mind he's going to have to pick off loads of Biden voters, something that'll be harder to do with Trump attacking Biden at the top of the ticket. (Previous Ranking: N/A)

Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R-NC)

2. North Carolina

Again, North Carolina moves up the list because of lack of competitive races, not because it's evenly matched.  The big thing here is the presidential race.  Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is popular right now, and though COVID politics could change that (he, like most Democrats, have been relatively strict with shelter-in-place orders, which comes with its own MAGA backlash), it's impossible to see him losing if Biden loses, even against a relatively decent candidate in Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R).  Polling shows Cooper in much better shape than Biden, but since right now I'd very tentatively bet on Biden taking the Tarheel State, it's easy to assume Cooper wins.  If Trump takes it, Cooper proved in 2016 he can outrun Trump, though it's obviously a question of how much.  (Previous Ranking: 4)

Whitney Williams (D-MT)

1. Montana

Montana is the only true tossup on this list.  I'd normally think this is a "Lean R" and I'd probably bet on that if forced to, but the Republicans have a couple of road blocks that could extend the Democrats' winning streak here into a fifth term.  For starters, Steve Bullock running for Senate means that there's a federal interest in keeping money and GOTV dollars in Montana; without that, Biden surely wouldn't have cared about this seat and it might have fallen by the wayside as Democrats move to spend more on other contests.  Secondly, Republicans have a nasty primary ahead of them, with Rep. Greg Gianforte (who has run for this office and has a pretty hard-right reputation) taking on Attorney General Tim Fox (who would be more palatable to general election voters).  If Gianforte wins the nomination, he'd be vulnerable here (he had a close call last year for reelection and lost to Bullock in 2016), and he's currently ahead in the polls.  The Democrats have Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney and businesswoman Whitney Williams, the daughter of former Rep. Pat Williams, who is getting pushed hard by Emily's List in a year where they don't have a lot of option to expand the list of Democratic female governors.  Cooney has lead in polling, but that's been almost non-existent in this contest.  The same can be said for the general, but it has to be assumed it will be close as Montana loves its Democratic governors, but loves Trump a little bit more.  All-in-all-this is the race to watch this fall if you're into gubernatorial matchups.  (Previous Ranking: N/A)