Honorable Mention: We're adding back an Honorable Mention because I do think there's potential for more than ten competitive races at this point. People keep talking about Kentucky, but I don't buy it. Mitch McConnell is unpopular in his state, but better Democrats than Amy McGrath have taken on McConnell & couldn't pull this off; the mountain of cash in her coffers is the Democrats thinking with their hearts, not their heads. The same is true for South Carolina & Lindsey Graham-these contests wouldn't be competitive unless Trump's support starts hitting the mid-30's nationally, and even then Slots 7-10 are a better bet to fall than either of these two polarizing figures). A more plausible set of contests would be the two seats in Georgia, but the runoff keeps me from thinking this is an option. Biden may well win Georgia, or at least out-perform, but 2018 showed that a Democrat in a non-presidential race just can't get to 50%, and they need to do so in order to win. Until we start seeing polling showing that the Democrats could get to that number, I don't think they deserve to be on this list, but don't be shocked if one of them shows up again.
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| Major MJ Hegar (D-TX) |
I said if Biden became the nominee I might bring Texas onto this list, and I'm doing that today. Unlike Georgia, Texas only does runoffs in their primaries, not their generals, and while the Democrats don't have as high-profile of a candidate in 2020 as they did with Beto O'Rourke last cycle, that might not matter as much. MJ Hegar, a former Air Force veteran and candidate who nearly won in 2018, still needs to win the runoff, but has the cash to do so. It's certain that Hegar won't be able to compete with incumbent-Sen. John Cornyn financially, which means her biggest calling card might be how well Biden does, and if Beto awoke a sleeping giant last cycle. Let's keep in mind that there are a number of well-funded Democrats in swing districts that could help do some of Hegar's work for her, with her focusing on the major blue metropolitan areas in Austin, Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio. Texas is probably more "relatively red" than purple, but it's shown that a Democrat can, under the best of circumstances, be within striking distance. I discounted Hegar at the beginning of the cycle, and only a few would bet against Cornyn right now, but if Trump starts to falter a bit, and especially if Biden is actually competitive in the Lone Star State, Hegar is someone you should at least have in your purview. (Previous Ranking: N/A)
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| John James (R-MI) |
Michigan is hard to read. By all accounts, Sen. Gary Peters (D) is running a paltry campaign compared to businessman John James (R)-frequently being out-raised and not upping his name recognition. But the problem for James is that Donald Trump is making it very, very hard to run as a Republican in this state in 2020. While there's no guarantee that Gretchen Whitmer will remain popular, as of now she's considerably more well-liked than he is, and with Michigan being disproportionately affected by a lack of PPE (with a lot of that blame falling onto Trump's lap), James may have to outrun Trump here. Combined with Biden being uniquely-positioned to win this state (he polls well here, and the Obama administration's impact on General Motors should not be discounted), and you have a race that probably should be more competitive than it is. I wouldn't say that Peters is out of the woods, but it's hard to imagine an incumbent Democrat losing a state that Biden wins without some sort of scandal, which Peters doesn't have. Democrats should probably hope that Peters figures out a way to better establish himself, though, as the lackluster campaign he's running now wouldn't succeed under other circumstances. But right now that feels like a problem six years out. (Previous Ranking: 6)
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| Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R-KS) |
Kansas moves down slightly on this list mostly because I still cannot get a read on what will happen in the Republican primary, but it does appear that the establishment Republicans are staying behind Rep. Roger Marshall. There has been talk about bringing in a wealthy businessman, but ultimately I think the GOP is smarter to stick to Marshall, a vanilla Republican in a state that favors them. Still, without a runoff law here, and with a third candidate in the race (Senate President Susan Wagle), the Republicans are at risk of former Secretary of State Kris Kobach getting the nomination, especially since he still courts Trump's good graces. If Kobach is the nominee, all bets are off, and this race moves up the list (conversely it goes off the list if he loses the primary-consider Slot 3 "Schrodinger's Senate Race"). Kansas has a history of siding with a moderate Democrat in cases where the hard-right favored a Republican that was too extreme for moderates in the middle. Kobach is Exhibit A of such a problem, having lost both the 2018 Governor's race and a 2004 House race in exactly that way. If he's the nominee, while he'd still be a plausible option in the general, I'd say he'd be a tossup against State Sen. Barbara Bollier. Bollier could well be an after-thought against Marshall, but against Kobach she could pull off something similar to what Joe Donnelly did in 2012-a big bet that the Republicans will screw themselves out of purity politics, and she gets to gain from the lack of humility. But the amount of "if's" keep this lower on the list. (Previous Ranking: 7)
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| Theresa Greenfield (D-IA) |
We move Iowa up slightly for three reasons. The first is Biden. Iowa Caucus voters are very different than the ones who end up actually voting (caucus voters tend to favor the extremes of the party-look at nearby Minnesota for an example of how switching from a caucus to a primary can expand your voter base and moderate it), and Biden being a textbook "Generic Democrat" on the list will keep Democrat Theresa Greenfield from having to answer tough questions about Medicare-4-All or energy policy that would be unpopular with large swaths of Iowa voters. The second is that Joni Ernst is unpopular. Her approval ratings have dipped sharply in recent months, to the point where she's now the third most unpopular senator in the body, behind only Mitch McConnell & Susan Collins. While McConnell is proof that that doesn't always matter, it doesn't help Ernst, who isn't as established or as powerful as McConnell. And lastly, Democrats seem to really want to make this a race. Both the Senate Democratic and Republican Super PAC's have booked 8-digit ad buys here for the fall, more on-par with races in North Carolina or Maine than Georgia or Texas. The thought process might be that Ernst is the favorite, but due to her lack of popularity, there's a risk of her under-running Donald Trump here (I suspect you'll see a similar phenomena in Arizona & North Carolina this year)-something that Republicans don't really have a lot of room for. Ernst is a well-funded incumbent in a state that loves to reelect their politicians, but they also usually like their politicians-if Biden keeps this close, Greenfield should not be counted out as an alternative to Ernst. (Previous Ranking: 8)
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| Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) |
The biggest addition to this list since our last outing would be in Montana, as we have what will surely be the final major candidate recruit of 2020: Gov. Steve Bullock. Bullock's addition to this essentially moves this race from Sold R to Lean R, perhaps even Slight Lean R depending on polling. This is still a red state-Bullock is not John Hickenlooper, essentially coming into a race where he'll be the prohibitive frontrunner, but he is the only shot the Democrats have of winning. We discussed this race in-depth a week ago (see here), but suffice it to say that Bullock comes with some baggage (a failed presidential run that Republicans will mine for more liberal policy positions than he had as governor), but he also comes with some strength. The biggest one might be his handling of the COVID-19 crisis. Bullock has done well in Montana, and while it hasn't gained the national press of an Andrew Cuomo or a Gavin Newsom, that doesn't mean that it goes unnoticed in Montana. Bullock will be able to counter his decisive actions in the face of the pandemic against his opponent Steve Daines, attacking Daines for failing to convince Mitch McConnell to act faster for the American people; few figures will be more ripe for attack than Daines to Mitch McConnell's "three-day weekend." This is a red state, but sitting governors do very well when they are well-liked and run for the Senate-Bullock is both. (Previous Ranking: N/A)
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| State Sen. Cal Cunningham (D-NC) |
The top five remain unmoved in ranking, but don't confuse that for being unmoved in position. One of the biggest reasons I think that Joe Biden is going to help the Democrats is the Top 5 right now is filled with candidates who can easily run with him (Slots 2-5 could all be in states that are now on the table for the Democrats to win in the electoral college thanks to Biden), but the Republicans have struggled to run with Donald Trump. That's proof in North Carolina, where Democratic State Sen. Cal Cunningham has shown a consistent single-digit lead over incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis, who has struggled to gain a connection with North Carolina voters, and only has this seat because of a toxic midterm in 2014. North Carolina has a long history of discarding their senators, so Tillis' incumbency is unlikely to help him, and he seems to under-run Donald Trump in polls. If Biden can also win this state (and polls repeatedly show he can), one of the biggest assets of Biden's campaign would be that he'd probably drag Cunningham along with him. The Democrats need a net gain of four seats-North Carolina is currently the tipping point state on this list, and (gun-to-my-head) I'd bet on Cunningham at this point over Tillis. A long campaign to go, but it's possible Biden's nomination could also have won him a razor-thin Senate majority. (Previous Ranking: 5)
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| Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) |
Biden also spells trouble for Susan Collins in Maine, though I have to admit that Bernie Sanders might have been able to flex some New England muscle here. Collins has made a career out of outrunning Democrats and winning over persuadable Maine independents who voted blue for the White House but were more-than-willing to vote red on down-ballot races. Trump has destroyed that brand, though. Collins' votes to confirm Brett Kavanaugh & to acquit Donald Trump have made her something of a national joke ("concern" riddles her mentions on social media), and Trump has repaid her by firing the man she said "he'd learned his lesson" to avoid, as well as by denying Maine's hospitals PPE. This is a slight-blue state, and while Collins is now the most unpopular senator in the country, that doesn't mean that Democrats should under-estimate her. Considering her power in Washington, she'll be able to fundraise virtually any number she wants, and likely will be able to demand McConnell give her some token bipartisan legislation to get a vote across; her perch in the middle gives her a long list of legislation she can point to in campaign ads, and unlike some other candidates on this list, she'll definitely outrun Trump. But Speaker Sara Gideon has beaten her in both polls conducted in 2020, and someone like Biden (who has known Collins for decades) has no incentive to take it easy on her like Democrats have done in the past considering her defeat is the easiest path to a majority. (Previous Ranking: 4)
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| Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) |
I talked above how it seemed like Joni Ernst & Thom Tillis might be vulnerable to not doing as well as Donald Trump in their respective states, but no one seems to be suffering from such a fate more than Sen. Martha McSally (R). In hindsight, Gov. Doug Ducey made a mistake putting her in the position. When Kyrsten Sinema beat her in 2012, becoming the first Democrat in thirty years to win a Senate seat, the party should have tossed McSally to the wolves and picked a different option, but there isn't a large bench here that wouldn't be impervious to a rightward attack, and so McSally got a second chance. Her opponent Mark Kelly, though, will seal the fate of her career. Kelly has led McSally in every since September, and has out-raised her every quarter since he entered the race. Kelly, thus, is outrunning Joe Biden in a state that Biden polls ahead of Donald Trump-that's a huge problem for McSally, who already has some animosity for getting a seat in the Senate even though she lost the last race, and hasn't been able to make a connection to the electorate. You can state the requisite "it's early" and "this is still a pretty Republican state" but it's a state that's shifting leftward, and McSally has already been rejected once here. It's not hard to see it happening again. (Previous Ranking: 3)
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| Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) |
The top two races feel interchangeable to me at #1, and maybe someday I'll switch them up for the heck of it. In both, the incumbent is a vast underdog. Here, that benefits the Democrats. Gov. John Hickenlooper was not needed here (an argument I made at the time), as pretty much any reputable Democrat was going to best Sen. Cory Gardner, but since he is here, it's worth wondering if the Democrats might just simply take this seat with no trouble. Gardner polls badly-there's been a shortage of polling match-ups in 2020, but Hickenlooper regularly beats Gardner by double digits in a way that probably Andrew Romanoff or Alice Mdden might not have. Hickenlooper is to the right of those two (though one wonder is he'll veer left in DC considering that Colorado has gotten bluer since he first was elected governor), but if the Democrats don't have to spend much money to get a win here, Hickenlooper as the nominee could lead to, say, Bollier or Greenfield winning their race because of freed-up funds (a much better trade than Romanoff for Hickenlooper). Either way, though, Cory Gardner lost the day that Donald Trump won-that continues to be true now more than ever. (Previous Ranking: 2)
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| Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) |
And Doug Jones lost the day he was elected. Doug Jones will remain someone that we'll talk about a lot in our politically nerdy articles-in many ways he's the Democratic Scott Brown, someone who came in, shook up the party establishment, and whose presence had a profound effect on healthcare legislation. But Jones isn't winning this race. Polling shows both Tommy Tuberville and former Attorney General Jeff Sessions with a strong lead over Jones, who may well outrun Joe Biden by 20-points...and still lose. Jones' best bet here is to run a respectable race, one where he doesn't say anything controversial or bad-mouth Biden too badly, and come out of this as a very likely nominee to be the next Attorney General, making Jones move from an historical curiosity to potentially a very powerful Justice Department head (considering he'll be running any investigations into a former President Trump's administration). But any math that Democrats do to keep a Senate majority will not include the junior senator from Alabama. (Previous Ranking: 1)
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