The State of the Senate

Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Mitch McConnell (R-KY)-
who will be smiling come November?

We are entering the post-Labor Day period for the Midterm elections, and while this feels preposterous to political junkie me, this is about the time of year where most people actually start tuning into elections.  As a result, the list below, though it's been relatively immobile this year, could swing pretty dramatically still in the next couple of weeks as most Americans start to figure out who they'll be voting for in the general elections.  Still, I wanted a time capsule look at the most competitive races so that we can look back and either marvel at my accuracy or laugh at my stupidity.

We're going to start with the State of the Senate, as it's the race that will probably suck up most of the oxygen this fall even though the House battle is more interesting (there's more famous names in the Battle for the Senate, as well as less of them, so it's an easier media narrative but ultimately the Democrats will be measured by whether or not they win the House in terms of "success").  The Republicans sincerely lucked out this cycle with the races they pulled.  Were the Democrats facing, say, the 2020 Senate seats or 2022 ones, we'd be talking about how they will take the majority back in just over 60 days, but 2018 gave them almost no (obvious) pickup opportunities and ten Trump-state incumbents that they had to defend.  The left has arguably done everything it could think of to make the Senate competitive this fall (no retirements, expanding the map to get 4-5 competitive states, and most importantly, electing Doug Jones last December), but I still have the Republicans as heavy favorites for November.  If the Democrats are going to win, they'll need to draw an inside straight, and probably are going to take at least a few of the below races completely off-of-the-map, while getting at least one more pickup opportunity into proper "tossup" status.

I'll do a bit more analysis as we go through the below races, but if the election was held today, my hunch says that states ranked 1-3 would be pickups for the opposite party, 4-6 would be tossups, and 7-10 would be mildly favorable to the incumbent party, though definitely single-digit victories.  In this world, the best case scenario would be a Democratic net gain of +1, which is one seat short of victory, though it's worth noting that of course means that there's only one seat that needs to either surprise or stay Democratic in order for the party to get to 51.  The Democrats' odds are not great, but they're also obviously there (I'd wager about a 25% shot they win).  What they need is for several states (namely the Trump states) to care more about tried-and-tested incumbents who have won before, while the other four possible pickups to have voters who either vote for the person or who have become turned off by the GOP thanks to the president & just don't vote.  Will that happen?  We'll see in the next few weeks.  But for now, these are the ten races to watch in the contest for the upper chamber.

Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN)

Honorable Mentions: I toyed with keeping Wisconsin on this race, but honestly with Texas emerging as an option and Scott Walker's underwater approval ratings in the Badger State, it's hard to see the GOP spending much time on Tammy Baldwin, assuming that they have bigger fish to fry and probably waiting for a better cycle like 2024 to go after her.  A better option, at least according to polling, is Bob Menendez and considering his poor poll numbers it's extremely likely that the DSCC and the New Jersey Democratic Party is regretting not supporting a primary challenge against the scandal-plagued incumbent.  In a neutral cycle, I would think Bob Hugin's endless pockets and Menendez's low approval ratings would matter, but a blue wave should lead to enough Democrats holding their noses this November.  Still, if the DSCC has to spend a dime here the Republicans have already won because a Donald Norcross or Rush Holt would have had this sewn up for free.  Finally, Tina Smith's poll numbers have largely stayed in the single digits and though she's an incumbent, there's enough unknowns here (Democrats still mad about Franken giving up his seat, the closeness of Minnesota in 2016, the shifting politics of the Iron Range, her being more liberal than Minnesota's other senator Amy Klobuchar) that it's hard to imagine she's in a much better position than Baldwin.  All three of these, in the current environment, are holds for the Democrats but if Republicans gain ground in the polls in the next few months, they could be vulnerable to surprises.

Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT)

10. Montana

Donald Trump is popular in Montana.  Jon Tester is popular in Montana.  That is the juxtaposition that feels odd, but is clearly the case in the Treasure State, where both have 50%+ approval ratings.  The question may be will people view a vote for Tester as a choice between he and Trump, in which case Tester is hurt and could see his voters slide over to State Auditor Matt Rosendale, or is it possible that Tester is seen as just running against Rosendale, in which case his personal popularity will land him a "W."  The latter is clearly the hope for Tester, who of the "deep red" senators (the Democratic incumbents running in states that Trump won by double digits), he's done most consistently in the polls.  Tester is an odd duck in a lot of ways, particularly since he's struck out more among this quintet of senators against Trump, giving Rosendale fodder, but the GOP can't seem to take advantage.  It's honestly starting to look like Tester will win simply by both his own personal popularity & drawing a weak opponent, with Trump sealing his fate the day he chose Ryan Zinke for his cabinet, depriving Mitch McConnell of his best chance this fall.  If the Democrats pull off the miracle in November, there will be a lot of finger-pointing, likely from the president himself, but that decision is going to hang as one of his worst ones considering it took arguably the senator he likes the least (after perhaps Elizabeth Warren & Richard Blumenthal) off the table as particularly competitive, and if the GOP loses their majority, it's possible it was because Ryan Zinke was viewed as optional when he wasn't. (Previous Ranking: 9)

Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN)

9. Tennessee

This is a race where conventional wisdom is going up against the reality that we haven't had a midterm that favored the Democrats in a while.  In normal circumstances, Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) would be the heavy favorite to win this seat.  After all, retiring Sen. Bob Corker isn't retiring because he particularly wants to, but because the conservative factions in his party don't want him around anymore.  Corker's too moderate (that word has lost all meaning in the past ten years), too tough-on-Trump, and as a result the Republicans basically bullied him out of the primary.  Blackburn is hugely popular with the Club for Growth set, particularly when it comes to her strong anti-abortion beliefs.  But Blackburn has struggled in polling, mostly because the Democrats got a star recruit in the form of Phil Bredesen, who held the governor's office from 2003-2011 and was quite popular during that time.  In the past decade, since Bredesen left office, we've seen a sharp turn toward straight-ticket voting, and in the process once-popular Democrats have shown that they cannot translate their previous success into victory in this hyper-partisan era (look at people like Bob Kerrey or Evan Bayh for examples), and so it's difficult for me to imagine Bredesen winning this race.  But he's running a good contest, aided in no small part by Corker who clearly loathes Blackburn and likes Bredesen personally, meaning he's only lukewarm in his comments about the race.  If Bredesen can translate his once significant popularity into a victory here, it'll be because the CW about straight-ticket voting is wrong in the era of Trump.  We'll see how polling goes once more voters get to know Blackburn this fall, but until then I keep this toward the back of the Top 10, but still on the list. (Previous Ranking: 7)

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV)

8. West Virginia

Much like Jon Tester, I wonder if Joe Manchin's entire fate is going to depend on whether or not he can convince his voters that he's running against a random Republican, and not the popular Donald Trump (he is in West Virginia, at least), and like Tester, I'm starting to feel like Manchin might be able to pull it off.  Donald Trump did better in West Virginia than virtually any other state, but Joe Manchin isn't some wallflower Democrat, consistently being one of the more conservative members of his party (this is someone who is actually a moderate and not just someone who occasionally says bad things about Trump but has a 98% Club for Growth score).  Manchin hasn't gotten everything he wanted in this race (Don Blankenship is not on the ballot this fall), but POTUS seems to like him all right, so he might not run as hard against him as he will, say, Jon Tester or Claire McCaskill, and he's still personally popular while his opponent, Attorney General Patrick Morrissey, appears to be an underwhelming candidate.  West Virginia is also odd that while it gives presidential elections easily to the Republicans, it makes the GOP work for other races, as is evident by Jim Justice winning as a Democrat alongside Donald Trump in 2016, and the likelihood that State Sen. Richard Ojeda is going to win the open 3rd district, where Joe Manchin is also expected to do quite well.  Tester & Manchin's races are more competitive in theory than in practice at this point, and while a more alert electorate may make their seats more-in-play, it's entirely possible both simply are Democrats like Sherrod Brown or Bob Casey who won't have to worry at all about the actual win in November, just about the margin.  If the DSCC doesn't have to spend money in WV/MT, that's a big coup as it limits the GOP's options, and gives the Democrats cash to play offense in some of the below states, specifically... (Previous Ranking: 8)

Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)

7. Texas

I had been SO reluctant to include this race in the actual Top 10 (it's making its debut), oftentimes listing it as a theoretically competitive race but not one where the Democrats had a legit shot at winning.  Something's changed here in the past two weeks, though, to the point where I have to admit this is possible.  Texas is the Great White Whale for Democrats, always talking about how it'll be competitive with the right candidate, but then they see their hopes destroyed by a double-digit loss.  However, I don't remember polling like this race ever in a Texas contest (Emerson has Sen. Ted Cruz up by only one point), and Hillary Clinton did lose this by less than ten points.  Almost all of this has to do with the kind of contest that Rep. Beto O'Rourke is running: populist, of-the-people (his goal to swear off PAC money was a genius move in hindsight), and one that's less about politics and more about the future.  O'Rourke is running less like Joe Manchin and more like Barack Obama, which is a risky game to play in the Lone Star State, but it's yielding results, and the GOP is clearly nervous.  Look at the poorly-executed series of attack ads on O'Rourke (targeting his DUI arrest in 1990 and his past as a member of a band), which made him look less like a hippie liberal and more like a cool guy who's made mistakes and learned from him...and, let's face, it made him look kind of hot.  Frequently we hear people say "the candidate you'd most want to have a beer with is the candidate who wins in close elections," and it's had to imagine the people of Texas siding with the Harvard-educated John Birch Society-esque Cruz (whose own kids don't seem to like him) over the chill, former member of a band named Beto.  It's early, O'Rourke is still a Democrat in the most famously Republican state in the country, and he's yet to lead in an actual, reputable poll, but the Republicans wouldn't be sending Donald Trump to Texas this October if they thought this was in-the-bag.  Cruz should be worried, and if this falls, Chuck Schumer may well win the majority as a result of the Democrats finding a potential future president in the most unlikely state imaginable. (Previous Ranking: N/A)

State Rep. Mike Braun (R-IN)

6. Indiana

The least-polled race on this list, it's hard to tell what kind of a contest this actually is.  The dynamics of it feel like it should be one of the toughest races on the map for the Democrats.  Six years ago, then-Rep. Joe Donnelly was headed to a close loss, but State Treasurer Richard Mourdock had a Todd Akin-moment that landed Donnelly as that cycle's "accidental senator."  This year, the Republicans didn't make the same mistake, choosing arguably their best primary candidate in State Rep. Mike Braun.  However, polling has shown this to either be a razor-thin race or one where Donnelly is winning in a blowout (look at that bizarre Trafalgar poll that had him up by 12-points).  It's possible that Donnelly, who is running largely as a "non-partisan" candidate who avoids party labels (unless he's attacking his opponent on healthcare, specifically preexisting conditions), has gained a foothold in Indiana politics in a way pundits quite comprehend.  He is, after all, a rather bland politician who is pretty much a standard backbencher (then again, Bob Casey's made a career of that in nearby Pennsylvania, so it could just work for Great Lakes Democrats), and he's got a winning closing argument considering Braun's company laying off blue-collar workers and outsourcing jobs to China (there's some killer attack ads if Donnelly pursues that route, and it's probable he will).  Without polling, it's hard to tell if Donnelly is more a Heitkamp/Nelson-style coin flip race or if he's positioned himself in-line with Tester/Manchin, so until I know for certain (oh polling overlords, please survey this race), I'm keeping it in the middle. (Previous Ranking: 6)

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO)

5. Missouri

Unlike Indiana, this race I can get a better sense of where it's headed (though like Indiana, I would love a few more polls here...seriously, we don't need to keep polling in Pennsylvania, we all know Casey & Wolf are up by double digits).  Six years ago, Sen. Claire McCaskill, arguably the best political strategist in the Senate, won by picking her Republican opponent, and then letting him hang himself by talking about "legitimate rape."  It's worth noting in hindsight that had Akin not said that, McCaskill may well have still won considering how well Democrats did nationally & the fact that he wasn't a stellar candidate even before becoming a punchline, but regardless, McCaskill has become synonymous with being a savvy pol, a double-edged sword for a woman (I'll play the sexism card right now and say that McCaskill would be winning by Tester-like numbers if she didn't have to fight people's prejudices against smart women), but one that she can use to her advantage.  Her opponent is not a joke this cycle, but McCaskill has been working hard to paint him as out-of-touch with Missourians (particularly by linking him to Eric Greitens and making him look like a DC Republican already).  Hawley has rebounded in polls, and it's entirely possible that McCaskill can't win without her opponent imploding, but I'm guessing she closes well in a wave, and is able to land punches better against Hawley than the other way around (look at how he seems to be overplaying the "she rode in a private plane" aspect of her campaign, which won't actually change anyone's mind).  This is a tossup, but I'd still bet on Claire if I was forced to do so, mostly because she seems like a sharper lawyer who can better prepare a closing argument (Previous Ranking: 4)

Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL)

4. Florida

This was nearly #3 on this list, and two weeks ago I was toying with putting it #2.  Regardless, it's more competitive than it should be, and that's because Florida is the rare state that is bucking the trend of lousy Republican candidate & solid Democratic candidate.  In fact, it's pretty clear to see that Gov. Rick Scott is running the better campaign than Sen.Bill Nelson.  Scott, who won tight races in Republican waves, has used his personal fortune to paint Nelson as out-of-touch with Florida voters, and has dominated the airwaves in his quest to win this Senate seat.  His popularity after Hurricane Irma last year has sustained, and he's well-liked in a tight swing state that almost always sides with Republicans at the end-of-the-day.  Nelson's campaign has been lethargic, and while part of that is a lack of money, he's clearly not up for a ruthless campaign against Scott.  I'd argue that best saving grace for Nelson ended up being last week's surprise victory of Andrew Gillum in the governor's race.  While I'm still skeptical that Gillum can win, he's doing pretty well in polling since the contest (Nelson has also rebounded a bit there), which makes me wonder-could Gillum, a relative political novice, drag a three-term senator across the finish line by exciting pockets of the base that Nelson was struggling with?  It's entirely possible that Gillum, who is 39 and African-American, could draw Millennials and black voters (two groups Nelson needs in huge numbers in order to win a fourth term) out while Nelson keeps his expected strong numbers in South Florida to save this seat for the Democrats.  Always remember-the passion for which you vote for someone doesn't matter when it comes to ballot-counting, and if progressives voters who might otherwise not have cared turn out for Gillum, they're going to cast apathetic votes for Nelson, which will surely help him.  It's possible that Gillum wins the Democrats a Senate seat while losing his own race, or that the divergent groups within the Democratic Party that they excite carry Gillum/Nelson across-the-finish-line.  Suffice it to say, Rick Scott is probably not happy he's stuck with Ron DeSantis while Nelson gets a potential lifesaver in Gillum. (Previous Ranking: 5)

Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)

3. North Dakota

Like I said above, I'm currently wagering that every seat above this ultimately stays with the incumbent party, though seats 4-6 in particular could flip if the Democrats don't continue to gain momentum heading to November.  We now enter the races where I think the seat flips hands, and as a result North Dakota is arguably the most important race on the map for both parties.  Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is a perfect fit for North Dakota-moderate, into getting subsidies for farmers while also a strong friend to the energy industry, and someone who is sharp but always nice when it comes to campaigns.  Were she a Republican, she'd be winning this seat by 30-points, but she's not-she's a Democrat, and that's what she's fighting in her contest against Rep. Kevin Cramer.  Heitkamp is a more skilled politician than Cramer, and strong enough that she won this seat six years ago despite every pundit assuming she wouldn't (even President Trump seems to admire her, which Heitkamp has used to her advantage), but North Dakota is deeply pro-Trump, and increasingly just pro-Republican. Heitkamp is not DOA this November, and if any Democrat can win this race it's her, but I need more evidence from her campaign or the national environment that she can actually pull it off before I start giving her the benefit of the doubt.  Right now, I think the party that wins this race wins the Senate, and as a result I'm thinking the Republicans maintain...but Kevin Cramer can't be caught slouching (Previous Ranking: 3)

Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-NV)

2. Nevada

I believe every time we have tracked Senate races this cycle, I have picked Nevada as my #1 seat that is most likely to exchange hands.  It says something good for the Democrats though possibly a little bad for Jacky Rosen that it is now being demoted.  The reason for that is mostly because our #1 state has simply favored the Democrats more than I ever could have anticipated (a good sign for the Democrats), but it also shows that Rep. Jacky Rosen isn't quite the candidate that Democrats probably wanted here.  Sen. Dean Heller got dealt a rough hand, running as a Republican in a Hillary-state, but he also seems well-liked in the state, and has been a major force in Nevada politics for years, unlike Rosen who just made a foray into elected politics in 2016.  Heller has managed to stay competitive long enough now that he'll get national funding (that was a risk if he collapsed earlier that the Republicans would write this seat off and move to places like Missouri and Indiana exclusively), and I'd argue in a neutral environment we'd be looking at him winning by 4-5 points.  That said, this isn't a neutral environment and Heller over-performed polls in 2012 (besting Shelley Berkley by less than two points while almost every poll showed he'd win by more), giving Rosen an edge.  I oftentimes talk about which candidate is "better" in these writeups, but it's worth pointing out that the "better" candidate doesn't always win, it's just that they ran the smarter campaign and got swept out by a wave.  The same thing happened to Kay Hagen in 2014, and I suspect will happen to Heller this year.  Rosen isn't running the better campaign, but it's probable she's running the winning one. (Previous Ranking: 1)

Rep. Martha McSally (R-AZ)

1. Arizona

The candidates have settled, and the Republicans have to be happy.  We'll never entirely know whether or not John McCain's death helped Martha McSally (I wager it did a bit, though not enough to have made the difference as she would have won regardless), but the Republicans avoided catastrophe by not nominating Kelli Ward or Joe Arpaio.  Now, though, they are faced with the uncomfortable truth that their candidate, even their preferred one, might not be good enough to actually win this election.  Polling has shown a consistent trend of Kyrsten Sinema winning the entire race (McSally has not led a poll since they both entered the contest), and while there are technically races where the candidate can rebound from that sort of deficit, it's very, very uncommon-at least some polling should be going McSally's way.  It's possible that Sinema won't be able to stand up to the attack ads (so far she's been able to escape them this cycle), but McSally had to run hard-right to win her primary, and while this is a Trump state, he didn't win it by much.  Wave elections oftentimes give normally competitive (or even polarized) states easy victories for the minority party (think Ohio in 2006 or New Hampshire in 2010)...is it possible that Sinema was just always destined to win this race, regardless of who the Republicans nominate?  We'll find out in a few weeks, but the burden-of-proof is on McSally at this point. (Previous Ranking: 2)

The Lowdown: All-in-all, the Republicans are still the favorites, though less heavily so than they were two months ago.  They avoided disaster in Arizona, and Missouri/Florida/North Dakota/Indiana are close enough they could theoretically even make gains in November.  If you're looking for signs that the Democrats are going to win the Senate in the coming weeks, there are five that I can list.  First, the Republicans start giving up on either Montana or West Virginia (or both); it's pretty rare for both parties to be waging "real" battles in a full ten seats by November, and unless Morrissey or Rosendale can start getting their act together, they might just cut their losses here in a similar fashion to what I assume they'll do for Smith & Baldwin.  Second, if Martha McSally can't start leading in some non-partisan polls by the end of September, assume the GOP has given up on that race and is focusing its attentions elsewhere; it's quite common for a party to give up on one or two of their own seats, and while that hasn't happened yet this cycle, Sinema's position in the polls is hard to ignore & McSally has a ticking clock on her campaign.

Third, watch the numbers in Jacky Rosen's race.  This is a seat the Democrats must have to be competitive, and quite frankly one I think they need to practically-speaking have locked up by November.  If Rosen can start posting numbers that look insurmountable (say a 5-7 point lead over Heller) by Election Day, it's probable that the Democrats have enough oomph to hold most of their incumbent seats.  Fourth, look at the polling numbers of Andrew Gillum, and see if he's helping Bill Nelson.  If my theory is correct, Nelson's going to gain at least 3-4 points off of Gillum's entry into the race, which is enough him to win.  If Gillum isn't a particularly competitive candidate, though, the voters that would turn out to see him win might still skip the race, costing Nelson his advantge.  And finally, watch TN/TX to make sure they're still competitive come Election Day.  While it's entirely possible the Republicans win 2-3 seats, thus making a Democratic majority impossible, waves rarely allow for incumbents of one party to lose (we'll be profiling the few instances where this happened later this week), so I don't think McCaskill/Donnelly/Heitkamp/Nelson will all come crashing down.  I do, however, think it's likely at least one of them falls, in which case the Democrats need either O'Rourke or Bredesen to make up the difference.  If one (or both) of them is in a position to win on Election Day, the Democrats still have a fighting shot at the general.  If not, I don't think the odds are strong enough that they actually win, just that they come close.