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| Mayor Andrew Gillum (D-FL) |
Democratic primaries, by-and-large, have had three consistent themes: accurate polling, women triumphing over men, and Bernie Sanders having bad luck with endorsements. On Tuesday night, however, Florida Democrats defied all three of those trends by choosing Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum over Rep. Gwen Graham by roughly three points. Gillum was not expected to win this, and arguably this might be the cycle's biggest upset (or at least it's up there). While he'd enjoyed some resurgence in the polls, conventional wisdom favored Graham, the daughter of popular former Governor/Senator Bob Graham, to the point where pundits like Larry Sabato and Dave Wasserman were calling the race for Graham early in the evening just to see her lead collapse and then disappear as results came in from populous Broward County. Graham, the establishment choice, was the only woman in the race and was seen as a tentative favorite for the general election. It remains to be seen if Democrats can still win with Gillum, who is considerably more liberal than Graham, and may have to face questions about an FBI investigation into his leadership of Tallahassee. Still, though, Gillum's youth (he's only 39) and the historical nature of his candidacy (he'd become the first African-American governor of Florida) might help gin turnout for two demographics that Florida Democrats have struggled with in recent years. It's worth noting that Gillum's candidacy matters not only for this race, but his ability to turnout historically poor demographics may help with a more pertinent race-Bill Nelson's contest for the Senate, which needs to be a victory for the Democrats to have a shot at the majority.
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| Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) |
President Trump doesn't get to be called a "winner" very often these days, but he has shown an unusually strong penchant for picking GOP primary winners in the past two months. Last week he saw his preferred candidate disappear in the Wyoming governor's race, but this week he got a big win with Rep. Ron DeSantis dominating a race against Agriculture Commisioner Adam Putnam. This was a foregone conclusion in the days preceding the primary, but it's worth giving Trump some credit here-a year ago Putnam (and Gwen Graham, for that matter), seemed a near-certain general election candidate, and has been viewed for the past eight years as the likely successor to Rick Scott. Now DeSantis, normally too-conservative to win statewide (the ad where he teaches his daughter to be a Trump supporter would have been easy bait against Graham, who has run a mom-in-chief style campaign), may have gotten a lucky break running against Gillum, who will be easier to paint as too-liberal for the state, and DeSantis will unfortunately use dog-whistle tactics against Gillum, which was evident with a racist comment he made on cable news. This could be a close race, but I'd wager DeSantis has the thinnest of edges unless Gillum is a better candidate than I'm giving him credit for (he did beat Graham, after all). It's entirely possible that last night the Democrats gave up their shot at the governor's race to get a better hand in the bid for the Senate-we'll find out in November.
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| Rep. Martha McSally (R-AZ) |
Across the country in Arizona, we saw expected results in the race for the US Senate, as Rep. Martha McSally easily bested State Sen. Kelli Ward and (former convicted criminal) Sheriff Joe Arpaio in Arizona. Just days after the death of Sen. John McCain, McSally (easily the candidate most resembling McCain's politics), will now fight to serve the same state he represented for decades. McSally will have her work cut out for her, even though this is a red state and she's by-far the Republicans' best shot at a win. After all, though it's by a slimmer margin than over Ward or Arpaio, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema has led McSally in almost every poll, and has an RCP average at this date of +5, and Arizona is a state that appears to be friendlier to Democrats in the Trump era. I'm hoping to be doing a post-Labor Day "State of the Senate" next week, but as a preview-I think Arizona has now become the best chance either side has of a pickup, so the outcome of this race will play a big part in deciding who will win the Senate majority. Republicans need McSally to do better than she currently is to win here, but at least they avoided giving the seat away to Democrats last night.
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| Kevin Stitt (R-OK) |
It's picked up enough steam now that it's no longer the "best kept secret" in political punditry, but it's worth noting that Oklahoma Democrats may well win their first statewide race in a decade come November, in the form of the governor's mansion. Last night mortgage banker Kevin Stitt triumphed over Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett, the latter of whom most people considered the better candidate for the general election. While it's ruby-red and a solid Trump state, Oklahoma has an intensely unpopular governor in the form of Mary Fallin, and has been punishing the GOP relentlessly in special elections and even Republican primaries (eight State House Republicans have lost primaries already this year because they voted against a teacher's pay raise earlier this year, which has become a local issue that has dominated the cycle and is surely something Attorney General Drew Edmondson, the Democratic standard-bearer, is going to trumpet until November). This is still a red state, and Edmondson better get used to hearing the words Obama, Pelosi, and Hillary associated with his name for the new 69 days, but this is a clear opening for the Democrats and I'd rate this race as a tossup at this point. This race needed the Democrats to do everything right and the Republicans to make several unforced errors to end up with Gov. Edmondson...we're currently tracking for that to happen.
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| HHS Sec. Donna Shalala (D-FL) |
While Andrew Gillum was a big winner for the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, by-and-large the continued track record of establishment women winning continued last night for the House races. In Arizona, former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick got one step closer to returning to the House after she triumphed over State Rep. Matt Heinz. The primary between the two candidates had turned brutal in the past few weeks (Heinz compared Kirkpatrick to a meth addict at one point), but Kirkpatrick won after endorsements from the DCCC and Emily's List, and starts as the favorite headed into November in a seat currently held by Martha McSally, but that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. In Florida, Democrats got former HHS Secretary Donna Shalala as their candidate in FL-27, arguably the best House pickup on the map (though it may have to concede to NJ-2 at this rate). Shalala, who is 77 and some argued wasn't liberal/young enough to win this seat, is the strong favorite for a pickup here, and could become something akin to a "House Dean" considering her stature as a former cabinet secretary. Along with former Obama administration official Lauren Baer's win in FL-18 (another competitive pickup opportunity, though not quite as fruitful as AZ-2 and FL-27), the Democrats continued to view establishment women as their best path to a House majority this November.
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