Ranting On...Erin Murphy & the Politics of Geography

House Majority Leader Erin Murphy and State Rep. Erin Maye Quade
(both D-MN)

This weekend, the Republican and Democratic Parties of Minnesota held their conventions.  You'll notice on this blog that I sometimes lean a little heavier into Minnesota politics since I'm from here, but I wanted to talk about one of the bigger takeaways from the weekend: the Murphy/Maye Quade ticket that could become historic for a number of reasons.

Generally I don't follow caucuses, and this weekend is perhaps the best indication as to why.  Arguably I'm a bit more of a pragmatic progressive in terms of my politics-I'm someone who is personally very liberal, but is also not willing to support ultra-liberal politicians unless they can actually win.  As a result, I was eyebrow-raising when we saw Tim Walz and Lori Swanson both lose their nominations (the Lori Swanson story, in particular, is a giant question mark and part of me wonders if she's going to stage an 11th-hour bid for the governor's mansion with Walz clearly suffering in his campaign & Murphy surging), as they were both more left-of-center politicians who certainly would have made the more palatable nominees in the general election.

The larger issue for me, though, is caucuses are hyper-undemocratic.  Like, I struggle to find a way to choose your party's nominees that would be less democratic save perhaps just having a joint-committee of unelected party elders doing it.  Caucuses allow only those who can take three days off from their lives to go to a convention in a city that might be hundreds of miles from your home in order to choose your party's nominees.  It's abhorrent that Democrats in my state continue to do this clubbish, elitist activity rather than have a proper statewide election, and from now until August I will grit my teeth whenever the DFL decides to push Murphy (or any of the other preferred nominees) just because "the chosen few" got to pick her (and I say this as someone who has been involved in caucuses in the past).

The bigger thing here, though, is that Erin Murphy's ticket is a daring one, and a big risk for the Democratic Party.  So far, the Democrats haven't really nominated someone that is DOA on Election Day for a major race, and it's worth noting that Murphy isn't the nominee yet.  Tim Walz will still run in the primary in August, and it's highly possible that Lori Swanson could join him if any of the rumors spreading right now are true.  But Murphy might be as close to a lost cause as the Democrats can get, and it's hard to imagine her beating Tim Pawlenty this November unless the electorate of Minnesota is much more progressive than they've ever shown themselves to be in past gubernatorial races...which I sincerely doubt.

Murphy and her running-mate both live in the Twin Cities, making geographic imbalance a struggle.  It's worth noting that historically the tickets for the Democrats have been split between metro/non-metro politicians (putting aside the Dayton/Smith Ticket of 2014 since Tina Smith had not been Dayton's original choice for LG, this could be the first time since 1994 that the DFL has endorsed an all-metro area Democratic ticket).  That ticket in 1994 (John Marty/Nancy Larson) went on to be an utter disaster for the DFL, with Marty losing by 30-points (even getting overtaken in Hennepin and Ramsey Counties, which is basically impossible for Democrats).  Murphy/Maye Quade not hailing from other parts of the state stands in direct contrast to the leading Republican ticket (where Tim Pawlenty hails from the metro but his running-mate Michelle Fischbach does not) or the other major DFL ticket (where Tim Walz is not from the metro but his running-mate Peggy Flanagan is).  We see time-and-again that lay supporters of politics don't care as much about geographic balance on a ticket, but it ends up mattering in close elections, and this feels a bit isolated against the trends in the Gopher State.

That's because in the last election, while Hillary Clinton won the state, she became the first Democrat to win by less than two-points since 1984 in a state that, quite frankly, wasn't even on her political radar.  Clinton won because she hemorrhaged voters outside of the metro area, and in part only won because of Minnesota's strong propensity for third party candidates (both Gary Johnson & Evan McMullin got more votes (each) than the margin Clinton won by, therefore acting as spoilers for President Trump).  This could be a fluke, but it feels awfully risky to bet on Murphy in such a situation, particularly considering that thanks to GOP gains in the state legislature under Gov. Dayton, it's entirely possible that the Democrats will lose full control of the state for the first time in decades.  Considering how that's fared for Democrats in neighboring Wisconsin, Murphy feels like a risky bet.

It's also worth noting that Murphy would have to make history to win the governor's mansion.  That's because no all-female ticket has ever won the governor's mansion in the history of the country.  Ever.  Only four, in fact, have ever even been the nominees (Clark/Netsch in 1994, Martin/Cornelius in 1999, Buono/Silva in 2013, and Wismer/Blake in 2014)...the closest any of these tickets came was in 2013 when Buono/Silva still lost by 22-points.  This isn't to say that any of these tickets were doomed due to an all-female ticket (none of these candidacies likely would have won with a male running-mate either), but it does prove that what Murphy is attempting to do here is unprecedented, and adds to the risky nature of her candidacy.  I'm uncomfortable cautioning against an all-female ticket (we certainly have had all-male tickets in Minnesota, though not since 1978 has one been successful), but it's perhaps more of an issue that Murphy is picking someone with identical politics, geography, and even the same first name as her running-mate, indicating she's only going after a select slice of the electorate in November when she'll need a broad coalition to win.

As a result, I do question the wisdom of the DFL here, and will probably be voting for Walz come August even if I might politically-align more with Murphy (I'm holding out to see if Swanson is indeed running before making a final decision).  Political risk occasionally comes with reward, but this feels like a pretty big one to make in a year where so much is at stake for Minnesota nationally (we will still have President Trump in charge come January), as well as with the high-risk that Democrats lose all control in the state just two years ahead of redistricting & with the specter of Scott Walker peering from across the St. Croix River.  With Mark Dayton also a factor (it's always a hard sell to keep the governor's mansion in the same party three terms in a row), Erin Murphy is a risk I'm not willing to take in August.