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| Josh Harder (D-CA) |
For weeks we had heard about the potential for the Democrats to be shut out in three Clinton-won districts in California (the 39th, 48th, and 49th) because of the top-two system in the state, and last night they seemed to avoid that catastrophe, as they'll surely need to win 1-2 of those seats come November if they want the majority. California's election counting rules ensure we won't know for weeks who the ultimate second places are, but things look pretty good in all of these places. The 39th and 49th seem assured second places for the Democrats (though neither have been called by the AP yet), though in the latter's case it's still a question mark as to which Democrat wins the nomination. The 48th (and a surprisingly weak performance by the Democrats in the 10th), are more question marks, but the Democrats will probably carry Josh Harder across the finish line in the 10th and in the 48th Democrats Harley Rouda & Hans Keirstead are dueling in 2nd and 3rd (they're separated by less than 200 votes last I checked) with a Republican not-far-behind in fourth. We won't know the nominees for a few days, so this could change, but right now it appears that the DCCC will have candidates in all 7 Hillary-won seats in November, albeit not necessarily the candidates they wanted.
Democrats, though, still don't have a clear victory last night. It's worth noting that with the exception of the 49th district, in none of the competitive primaries save the 49th did the Democrats hold the Republicans to below 50% of the vote. CA-21 is a bit of an outlier (it didn't have a competitive primary), but in the rest of the districts Hillary Clinton-won, the Republicans won 50-55% of the vote (with them getting 48.3% of the vote in CA-49). This will also change as more votes are counted, but this indicates that none of these districts, particularly the ones with incumbents, are going to be easy turns for the left in November. Democrats have beaten these odds before (in 2012, Ami Bera, Raul Ruiz, and Mark Takano watched the GOP crack 50% in the primary and then lose on Election Day), but it's worth noting. Democrats also couldn't advance two Democrats in the gubernatorial primary and lost a State Senate seat (losing their super-majority), so it was a mixed bag for the party in The Golden State. But the big win (advancing seven candidates in the ridiculous top-two system) appears accomplished.
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| Rep. Martha Roby (R-AL) |
There were, in fact, primaries in other states Tuesday night than California, and in Alabama the Republicans said that Donald Trump is the only voice that matters in the party. Rep. Martha Roby, who in 2016 was quite critical of then-candidate Donald Trump, had a shockingly close general election and was probably saved in the primary because no one serious thought to challenge her. That wasn't the case last night, as Roby garnered an anemic 37% of the vote, and is looking to advance to a runoff against former Rep. Bobby Bright (a former Democrat, but one who is hugging Donald Trump extra tightly right now).
Roby's poor performance is perhaps a reflection of what Republican Primary voters want in their candidates this year, and could be telling in some upcoming primaries (particularly Minnesota's gubernatorial contest, where Jeff Johnson is making a hard right-swing against Tim Pawlenty for not backing Trump more, or theoretically the Arizona Republican Primary where Martha McSally is fending off Trump loyalists Kelli Ward & Joe Arpaio). She's been a pretty loyal supporter of Trump during the past term, but GOP voters seem to have long memories, and it's not often an incumbent comes back from 37% of the vote to win a runoff. Expect Roby to tie Bright to Nancy Pelosi (who was leader of the House when he was a Democratic congressman), but that might not be enough in a landscape where Trump is King of the GOP.
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| Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) |
For months, I have been complaining about how no Democrats in New Jersey had enough spine to challenge Sen. Bob Menendez in the primary. Menendez was involved in a campaign finance scandal, and while charges were dismissed, it was apparent that he had not acted above-board or at the standards of how a US Senator should act. As a result, I had been hoping-against-hope that a serious Democrat would challenge him for the nomination, proving the Democrats wouldn't stand for corruption. I ended up being mistaken, but apparently not wrong, as we saw on Tuesday night.
That's because nearly 40% of the vote went to an unknown candidate with no money (newspaper publisher Lisa McCormick), proving that New Jersey Democrats were disgusted by Menendez. This is arguably the biggest shock of last night, and one few saw coming, including most-likely Menendez. Democrats now have to worry at least tangentially that Menendez may be toxic in the general election with a section of the voters (see David Vitter in 2015 for the most serious corollary), perhaps dampening turnout against a deep-pocked Republican. Had a serious candidate like Rush Holt or Donald Norcross run for this seat, it's probable they could have made a contest, and perhaps won it, giving Democrats a solid message of anti-corruption headed into November, and not had to worry about the seat. This is a sign that the DC Democrats don't quite know what the grassroots wants, as they all pretty quickly coalesced around Menendez, perhaps to their own chagrin.
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| Rep. Kristi Noem (R-SD) |
For weeks, we have seen House Republicans fail repeatedly in their quest to get promotions. Reps. Todd Rokita, Luke Messner, Evan Jenkins, and Raul Labrador all lost to local politicians in statewide races, indicating the Republican electorate is not happy with congressional Republicans. Before Tuesday, this was a worry for South Dakota Congresswoman Kristi Noem, who was locked in a tight race with Attorney General Marty Jackley. Or at least it seemed tight until last night, when Noem destroyed Jackley in an easy victory. Noem will now advance to a general election where she'll be the heavy favorite, and thanks to her victory, could become a major star in the party-at only 46, we could be looking at a future presidential candidate emerging this week.
Noem also showed a strong sign for women on the right in a year that has been a mixed bag for women running in the GOP. The same could not be said for Democrats, as last night the streak of Democratic women out-performing continued. Party Chair Deb Haaland will almost certainly become the first Native American woman to serve in Congress after last night, where she advanced in the safely blue NM-1. In New Jersey we saw Mikie Sherrill advance to the general election as the favorite(?) to pickup the 11th, in Montana we saw State Rep. Kathleen Williams best her better-funded male challengers, and in Iowa, State Rep. Abby Finkenauer and community activist Cindy Axne both made it through to the primary. Axne, in particular, was locked in a tight race she won by a large margin, and in a way that might spell trouble for the GOP in a seat that was "Lean R" for most people who may have underestimated her. Emily's List will have a lot of campaigns to invest in come November, and we're still not remotely done with primary season.
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| Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) |
One of the underwritten stories of the 2018 midterms has been the failure of Bernie Sanders' Our Revolution candidates, and that continued on Tuesday night as some of their highest-profile endorsements fell hard. Pete D'Alessandro, a former campaign staffer on the Sanders campaign, lost in a landslide to Cindy Axne in IA-3, while Cathy Glasson was one of the few noteworthy female candidates to lose on Tuesday nights in her race for governor. Sanders also saw endorsed candidates in New Jersey, California, and Montana all sputter, with really no major victory to speak of this cycle (it still seems bizarre that Kara Eastman was a victory Sanders surely could have claimed...had he chosen not to sit out that race as a favor to Jane Kleeb).
So far the question has been begged all season over whether this simply means that Sanders isn't trasnferrable as a candidate, in a similar fashion to Donald Trump, where people will follow him, but not necessarily go to the people he endorses, but perhaps it's time to play devil's advocate considering Sanders isn't leading all of the Democrats in 2020 matchups by much: is it possible that Bernie Sanders has less appeal than the media thinks? Sanders may, in fact, have simply been a protest against Hillary Clinton, rather than people actually attracted to his message, and as a result may be less important in 2020 than most people thought. This could be conjecture (I still think he's a frontrunner for 2020, if not the frontrunner), but when equally progressive (as well as younger, hipper candidates) than Hillary Clinton get into the race in 2020, it's entirely possible that Bernie Sanders less becomes Mitt Romney and more becomes Rick Santorum, a former silver medalist in the primary who took that position as a result of a weak field, not because he actually was any good.
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