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| Attorney General Lori Swanson (D-MN) |
The shocking thing about Swanson's announcement was not that she was running for governor, but that it took her so long. Swanson was rumored for months as a candidate for governor. After Tina Smith was appointed by Gov. Dayton in December, there was a brief moment where it looked like Swanson might consider challenging her for the seat, but she declined, with many assuming that she would run for governor. Later, she declined the run for governor in a bit of a shock, as there appeared to be room for her in the contest, but she also declined that race. It appeared that she would not follow in the footsteps of her longtime mentor Attorney General Mike Hatch, who for a while made a career of trying to win the governor's mansion with no success.
But Swanson entered the race in a big way on Monday, not only armed with the most name recognition in the race, but also with an impressive running-mate in Rick Nolan (more on that in a second). Plus, potentially her biggest direct competition (Rebecca Otto also is a statewide-elected official whose voters she's likely going to make a play for in the coming weeks), is out of the race now. Swanson will surely have an edge in terms of name recognition, though it remains to be seen if she can catch fire with the base or fundraise at a clip that will make her late entry successful. But she shouldn't be discounted for her late arrival or tepid reception at the convention, as Minnesota has a long history of not actually voting for the endorsed candidate.
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| State Rep. Erin Murphy (D-MN) |
This remains to be seen, but it surely changes the math. Many people assumed, even with Murphy winning the nomination, that she was an underdog in August for the primary in a 1-on-1 with Tim Walz. This was because while Murphy can rack up liberal votes in the Twin Cities, the endorsement doesn't mean that much when it comes to the actual election. Many figures (such as Jerry Janezich and Margaret Anderson Kelliher) have won the DFL endorsement but still failed to win the nomination, so Murphy wasn't a guarantee, and her politics would have been toxic outside of Hennepin/Ramsey, particularly with a running-mate whose first day on the trail she didn't know what E-85 was (a rookie mistake in Minnesota, one echoed by Judi Dutcher many years ago that basically ended her political career). With two establishment candidates in, though, Murphy doesn't have to hit 50%, she probably only needs 35-40%, which is more than achievable.
The big question is who is the candidate here who is going to hemorrhage support in the coming weeks. There will probably be a lot of anti-Murphy Democrats who worry that she won't be able to take on Pawlenty in the general and win (I'd be one of them), but it's not clear if Walz's head start is that much of an advantage. He's been a bit sluggish on the campaign trail (it's still weird he got trounced like that at the convention), and his instincts in the race so far have been weak. He's playing the game of running a general election campaign before he has the nomination, which is a critical mistake when he doesn't have the primary sewn up. That said, Swanson is a relatively centrist candidate in an era that doesn't allow them (particularly on organized labor and gun rights), which would probably make her formidable against Pawlenty in a way none of the other candidates are, but expect Murphy to make that a center-point of her campaign against Swanson. It's possible that this could end up mirroring 2010's election, where the more "old school" DFL choice (Mark Dayton) bests the upstart legislator from the Twin Cities (Margaret Anderson Kelliher) while a third candidate plays spoiler (Matt Entenza). It's just not clear yet whether or not Swanson or Walz is the Dayton or Entenza, and if Murphy can succeed where Anderson Kelliher couldn't.
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| Rep. Rick Nolan (D-MN) |
One of the great mysteries of Monday was how Lori Swanson got Rick Nolan on the ticket with her. The question as to why she wanted him is not an enigma-Nolan locks up the Duluth area on the map for Swanson, and is a very serious & credible option for her ticket. A sitting congressman, Nolan adds fundraising contacts and more fame to the team (Swanson/Nolan could essentially be branded the name recognition ticket), and he's a major coup for Swanson-one could argue that short of Mayor Don Ness getting onboard with her candidacy there's no better (plausible) running-mate she could have picked to add credibility to her contest.
But what's in it for him? Nolan very openly flirted with running for governor some months back, but purportedly stayed out of the race so that the DFL could hold his seat. He then retired, seemingly being done with politics (he's 74), leaving his seat vacant and extremely vulnerable to a takeover. So what is in it for him to run for lieutenant governor, a largely ceremonial position? Genuinely-I'm stumped here. He was a favorite for winning reelection in MN-8, and would have been a serious candidate for governor, possibly a more serious one than Walz, so taking what amounts to a voluntary second place seems bizarre. Is he doing a favor to Mike Hatch, who has long groomed his former deputy AG for this race? Is he just a really big fan of Swanson? Is he super anti-Murphy or Walz? It's hard to tell, and perhaps a mystery that will go unsolved, but it's worth asking.
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| Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN) |
Swanson's last minute entry set off a chain reaction in the state, with the top law enforcement officer's position being vacated, and considering how the AG spot has gained profile in the past few decades (both as a great launchpad to run for Governor or Senator, and, in the era of Trump, for ambitious Democratic pols to make a name for themselves), it makes sense that rising stars would get into the contest. Few stars have been bigger on the Minnesota map in recent years that Rep. Keith Ellison, who threw his hat into the ring for the contest, and is arguably the favorite for the nomination, though one could argue an underdog for the general.
Ellison was rumored for the position earlier this year when Swanson was flirting with a run, and his entry isn't all-too-shocking. It's probable that the way that Swanson entered might actually help him-we hadn't seen any public polling about Ellison prior to the filing deadline, so someone like State Rep. Ryan Winkler (who might otherwise have considered the spot), wouldn't have been able to gage the race. But Ellison comes with a lot of liabilities as a candidate. He is considerably more liberal than the state as a whole (lest we forget, Hillary Clinton won the state by less than two-points, and well short of 50%), and no Muslim candidate has ever won a statewide election in Minnesota (or, I believe, in any state). The Republicans didn't expect to beat Swanson, so this is a coup that this is even an opportunity for their party, but they do have two former state legislators competing on the GOP side, and would be formidable if the race becomes a referendum on Ellison.
Ellison's arguably most notorious opponent, Mike Hatch (a name that enrages as many as it excites on the Democratic side), has already dropped out of the race, though pointedly avoiding any praise for Ellison. It's probable in the coming week that the Hatch wing of the party will coalesce around a candidate (State Rep. Deb Hilstrom seems the most likely contender), pushing out other moderates like County Attorney Tom Foley and Commerce Commissioner Mike Rothman. That would leave Ellison in a threeway race against the Democratic-endorsed candidate (Pelikan) and Hilstrom. Were that to be the case, Ellison would probably still be the favorite, but the last time a congressman ran for this spot, he ended up losing to Lori Swanson (Bill Luther in 2006), so there should be no laurel-resting.
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| State Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) |
Ellison leaving Congress makes the Democratic Primary in August a free-for-all in the bluest district in the Gopher State (the winner of the primary is assured a seat in Congress in January). After the dust has settled (several candidates have already withdrawn from the race), there appears to be four serious candidates for the seat: State Sens. Bobby Joe Champion and Patricia Torres Ray, State Rep. Ilhan Omar, and former MN House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher.
Omar arguably is the most famous and well-known of the candidates (she was recently on the cover of Time), and I'd say is probably the frontrunner, though not without caveats. She's relatively new to elected Minnesota politics despite her fame, and though this is the most African-American district in the state, it's the second whitest House district in the country currently represented by an African-American Democrat (and third overall). This obviously shouldn't matter, but it would be unwise to assume that Ellison will automatically be replaced with a person of color (as is oftentimes the case in majority-minority districts, which this is not-only 17% of the populace is black and nearly 70% is white). Omar also will have to contend with another African-American in the race (Champion) with whom she could risk splitting the vote, and against three figures that are much better-established in the district than she is. It'll be worth noting if any of these candidates drop out in coming weeks, as that could complicate the math. Already we saw former State Sen. Julie Sabo drop out of the race-will anyone else follow suit? Champion and Torres Ray don't have to stand for election this November regardless, and Kelliher is a former office-holder so she has nothing at risk, but Omar is placing a very heavy bet on a very young political career against three well-known commodities (she can't run for her reelection if she loses here), so I'm curious to see how this shakes out.
2 comments:
"long history of not actually voting for the endorsed candidate" and "Many figures (such as Jerry Janezich and Margaret Anderson Kelliher) have won the DFL endorsement but still failed to win the nomination"
Twice. It's happened twice in the history of DFL gubernatorial endorsements, and one of the candidates that beat out the endorsed candidate was Mark Dayton who spent millions of dollars of his own money.
Those are two recent examples. There are other cases of it happening where the DFL-endorsed candidate loses the primary (Greg Gray comes to mind). The point is, the DFL endorsement doesn't carry as much weight in a contested primary as one would assume considering how many people drop out if they lose it.
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