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| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) |
In by-far the biggest political upset of the year so far, House Democratic Caucus Chair Joe Crowley lost last night by a wide margin to activist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democratic Socialist who just one year ago was a bartender in the Bronx & is now headed to Congress as (most-likely) the youngest woman to ever serve in the body. It's hard to underscore what a big victory this was for Ocasio-Cortez, who had to take on a man who has run the Queens Democratic Party with an iron grip for decades, and who most people assumed was next-in-line to take over as Speaker of the House of Representatives. While Crowley didn't have the national name ID of Eric Cantor, it's impossible not to note the similarities here, as both men were seen as the future of their party while the actual citizens begged to differ (and before you say that's bad news, remember that the Republicans got a tsunami in the wake of the Cantor loss, albeit one that came with a price in the form of Donald Trump two years later).
In a night with a number of Democratic challengers to incumbents, Crowley was the only one to fall. Diana DeGette & Elliot Engel both easily won their races (to the point where you could argue the threat of them losing was overblown), while Carolyn Maloney took hers by a fine if underwhelming 17-points. Yvette Clarke barely won hers, and quite frankly probably would have lost if people knew there was more of a possibility of her losing considering her underwhelming performance on the campaign trail. Crowley could be a harbinger of things to come, but honestly there's not that many races left to embolden challengers; almost every filing deadline has passed, and the only obvious spot on the House map with a Democratic challenger who could be trouble for an incumbent is MA-7, where Rep. Mike Capuano is clearly vulnerable (and probably about to call his nephew Captain America (aka Chris Evans) to come campaign with him as he'll need the help). It has to be said, though, that in the wake of Crowley's loss Cynthia Nixon, who has the support of Ocasio-Cortez & was at her victory party last night, surely got a bump as the 28-year-old future congresswoman's win likely scared the crap out of Andrew Cuomo.
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| House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) |
The larger message of last night-Nancy Pelosi has a problem. If you follow me on Twitter, you know that I have been banging my head against a wall struggling with the Democratic Party in their calls for civility against protesters who are now going to restaurants and public spaces to follow around key Republican leaders (peacefully, I might add). I texted this last night, and it bares repeating "Nancy Pelosi picked the wrong week to defend Sarah Sanders & criticize Maxine Waters."
Crowley's loss should be a wakeup call to Pelosi that she is no longer in-touch with what her party wants, and you can only sustain leadership so long before you become irrelevant if that's the case. I like Pelosi, but even I have my limits, and they're being reached when you can't realize your base is begging for you to be harder on the president, while you're calculating what will play best in Grand Junction & Duluth as if it's still 2005. Pelosi is smart, and I wouldn't count her out (Boehner made it through most of his first year even after the 2014 midterms basically told him he wasn't in-line with the GOP anymore), but she's got a massive problem on her hands, and it's unlikely that Steny Hoyer or Jim Clyburn will be able to last even if she does after last night. Arguably the biggest winner in the Democratic leadership is Linda Sanchez, who may well have secured her spot as Pelosi's strongest challenger (or the candidate that could most easily become a consensus candidate for moderates and liberals alike if the Democrats win the majority, or quite frankly even if they don't).
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| President Donald Trump with Gov. Henry McMaster (R-SC) |
It's hard to put into words all of Donald Trump's struggles while in public office, but one of the more under-written ones has been his inability to get people actually elected to public office. His endorsements for Luther Strange (then Roy Moore), Rick Saccone, and Ed Gillespie ultimately did nothing, with Strange even losing his primary. Last week, though, Trump helped out Katie Arrington when she shocked Mark Sanford and avoided a runoff in South Carolina, and this week that continued, with an easy win for Rep. Dan Donovan (who crushed Michael Grimm, a candidate taking a page out of Trump's playbook while losing in large part because he couldn't secure the president's endorsement), and Gov. Henry McMaster, a close Trump ally, emerging victorious in a closer-than-expected runoff. Trump is not shy about proclaiming victory even when it's not his (he took credit for Crowley's loss last night, for crying out loud, and if anything Crowley lost more because of him than in spite of him), but these are both tangible proof that he can at least use his podium to help in Republican primaries. I'd expect in the coming weeks for him to perhaps stretch this power, as there are still a number of competitive primaries still on the map where his endorsement would mean a lot (AZ Sen, MN Gov, GA Gov, AK Gov, & WI Sen all come to mind).
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| Rep. Jared Polis (D-CO) |
I have to say on a night where Alexandria Ocasio Cortez was making a shocking win for Socialists (it has to be said this is by-far the best night Bernie Sanders has had all season), the Democrats also showed a weird affinity for self-funders last night, which feels deeply discouraging after we've railed against Trump for doing the same thing for nearly two years. Weeks after JB Pritzker defeated local office-holder Daniel Biss in Illinois, Democrats picked three self-funders in Colorado, New York, and Maryland. Probably the biggest of these is Colorado, where Rep. Jared Polis is now the favorite to become the first openly gay governor of a state after defeating State Treasurer Cary Kennedy. Polis, one of the wealthiest members of Congress, spent over $6 million in the race, a discouraging sign for a party that has in recent years embraced small-dollar donations in a big way, but at least he's a former officeholder. In Maryland, Dave Trone (after losing the primary in a neighboring district two years ago), defeated State Del. Aruna Miller after spending over $10 million of his own money (Trone founded the Total Wine retail chain). Miller was poised to be the only woman in the state's delegation, and without her Maryland is now likely to be the largest state in the country without a woman in its delegation (its biggest competition will be Tennessee). Finally, in New York, Perry Gershon put nearly $600k into his race to defeat local officeholder Kate Browning in NY-1, setting him up for a potentially competitive House race in the general.
All of these men might have progressive platforms, but I do think it's discouraging that the only major party that actually wants campaign finance reform finds self-funding of races (basically buying off races and making it so that only millionaires can afford to be in Congress) a bit of a bummer. I'd prefer it if people like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose income level is more in-line with the average voter, were the norm & not an anomaly in Congress.
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| Attorney General Drew Edomondson (D-OK) |
Lost in the Crowley/Ocasio-Cortez drama of last night was a bit of an eyebrow-raiser in the Sooner State. Oklahoma's main event was the gubernatorial primary for its open seat, as unpopular Gov. Mary Fallin is term-limited out of office headed into November. The Democratic primary went largely as expected, with former Attorney General Drew Edmondson easily winning over State Sen. Connie Johnson, and the Republican primary ending in an expected runoff, with Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb (perhaps too tainted by his roles in the Fallin administration), coming in third to Oklahoma City Mayor Mike Cornett & mortgage banker Kevin Stitt. But where the shock was was in turnout; numbers differ a bit on this, but turnout percentage was well over 100% lift for the Democrats despite Edmondson being a foregone conclusion in his race, and nearly a 2:1 lift for turnout for the left against the Republicans. While this doesn't guarantee victory (Oklahoma is a ruby red state), it does show potential. Keep in mind that Fallin succeeded a Democratic governor (Brad Henry), and states like Oklahoma have a fairly recent history of voting for Democrats to the governor's mansion even as their entire congressional delegation remains red. Combine that with an unpopular outgoing governor, a blue wave, a top-tier Democrat in Edmondson, and a sure-to-be-nasty primary between Stitt & Cornett, and you could have an interesting sleeper headed into November here.
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