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| City Solicitor Susan Wild (D-PA) |
Arguably the Keystone State is the most critical spot on the map for the DCCC this November (give-or-take California). This is because Pennsylvania's mid-decade redistricting resulted in a huge number of potentially competitive seats, including a near-certain pickup for the Democrats in PA-5. As a result, these candidates will be crucial for picking up the majority in November, and last night in the so-called "Year of the Woman" (a ridiculous moniker, but one that's being lived up to right now), the Democrats bet on female candidates to take this thing home.
Of the five seats (PA-1, PA-5, PA-6, PA-7, and PA-17), Democrats picked 60% women, with School Board Member Mary Gay Scanlon (PA-5), USAF Veteran Chrissy Houlahan, and City Solicitor Susan Wild being amongst the candidates to score their nominations. Houlahan and Scanlon, in particular, now enter their general elections as the frontrunners to pick up these seats. In addition, an open bright-blue seat in PA-4 went to State Rep. Madeleine Dean. This is all the more remarkable because in the current Pennsylvania delegation, there are no women on either side of the aisle.
In order to win these seats, these women had to best a number of well-backed candidates, and proved last night that male candidates as varied as John Morganelli (a very conservative Democrat who once asked to be in Trump's cabinet) or Rich Lazer (a candidate personally endorsed by Bernie Sanders) could be susceptible to an increasingly blue, female wave. The only major female candidate to lose last night was Rachel Reddick in PA-1, and she was badly outspent by self-funder Scott Wallace. Overall, though, this could be telling for future competitive primaries that female candidates have a leg-up.
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| Kara Eastman (D-NE) |
By far the biggest upset of last night, and perhaps the biggest upset this year, was in Nebraska's 2nd district, where social worker Kara Eastman pulled off a huge victory over former Rep. Brad Ashford in Nebraska's swing-y second district. Ashford was largely expected to cruise through to the general, where he'd face a rematch with Rep. Don Bacon. The DCCC was so confident that they'd see Ashford in the general election that they added him to the "Red to Blue" program, despite them being criticized for messing with primaries in the past.
Eastman's victory shows a couple things. First, it's yet another sign that this is a year where Democratic women are coming out very successfully. Eastman was the only female candidate in the race, and as Pennsylvania showed (and Idaho-we'll get there in a second), women dominated in last night's primaries and have continued to be the main story when it comes to Democratic politics. Two years after Hillary Clinton's shocking defeat was followed by the largest single-day protest in US history, women are stepping forward at the ballot box. Expect Emily's List to be busy this fall (though they strangely didn't endorse Eastman prior to the primary...a fact I think they'll quickly rectify now).
The second thing is that this could be a hint toward the Democrats having a bit of a Tea Party problem of their own. Eastman was far more socially progressive than Ashford, which could pose a challenge in a close-but-red district. Ashford surely would have made this competitive in the fall (I'd be willing to assume that a good chunk of the electorate would still think he's the incumbent), but it's hard to tell if Eastman will have that same advantage, particularly she's much further to his left. Already Kyle Kondik at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved this from "Tossup" to "Leans R," an ominous sign for the Democrats. Republicans watched a number of seats disappear in 2010 and 2012 when they went with hard-right candidates...if Eastman loses this November, it's possible mainstream Democrats will be having similar complaints toward their progressive counterparts.
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| State Rep. Paulette Jordan (D-ID) |
Even in Idaho, progressives were doing surprisingly well, as State Rep. Paulette Jordan pulled off an upset victory over Boise School Board Member (and 2014 nominee for governor) AJ Balukoff. Balukoff, the more moderate candidate, was expected to win the nomination and had most of the backing of the Gem State Democrats, but Jordan was able to come across as a younger, more progressive candidate (and once again, a victory for women).
Unlike Eastman, Jordan isn't entering a race she or Balukoff were expected to win-the Republicans should be able to take this seat with ease. But it does point to the Democratic Party wanting to take a few more risks than they usually do in red states, and also shows a changing of the guard. Jordan, roughly half Balukoff's age and a woman-of-color, looks more like what the Democratic Party resembles in 2018 than even a few years ago, and it's a strong indication that younger, female, and persons-of-color want to see themselves in the people who represent them when she pulls off a victory over the establishment's "preferred" candidate. Jordan also heralds a sign that the Bernie Sanders' wing of the party wasn't just about Bernie (and though the Vermont Senator had a mixed bag last night with two of his favored candidates getting trounced in Pennsylvania, Eastman and Jordan's wins bode well for his chances in 2020 to score the Democratic nomination).
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| Rep. Raul Labrador (R-ID) |
Last week, we saw Republican congressmen get destroyed when they ran for promotions. Indeed, Reps. Todd Rokita, Evan Jenkins, and Luke Messner all lost to state-politics-focused Republicans in their primaries, showing that the GOP's electorate remains angry at DC Republicans no matter how conservative they might be. That continued this week, as one of the most right-wing members of the House of Representatives, Raul Labrador, fell to Lt. Gov. Brad Little in the Idaho Republican Primary. Adding in Robert Pittenger, it's worth noting that five sitting members of the House GOP conference have already lost elections this year.
This probably should be a bigger story than it will be, as Labrador was once seen as a rising star in the Republican Party, even once being floated as a far-right candidate for Speaker. His run against Little is strange as arguably Little is less conservative than he is (a different tune than most Republican primaries), but Labrador struggled in raising funds for this race, and Little dominated with the state party, which seemed to matter more for the Republicans than the Democrats (in an odd twist). In a state where there are very few chances for Republicans to move up the ladder, it's probable that Labrador's political career is over at age 50 (though you can never discount a second act for him in the Trump administration).
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| State Rep. Rick Saccone (R-PA) |
Speaking of careers that are over, State Rep. Rick Saccone watched his chances at Congress disappear last night as he faced a second high-profile defeat in the Republican Primary for Pennsylvania's 14th district. Saccone a few months ago took what surely should have been an easy victory and transformed it into one of the most competitive special elections in years, in the end losing a deep-red district to now Congressman Conor Lamb by a minuscule margin. However, it looked like Saccone might end up redeeming himself, perhaps even serving in Congress alongside Lamb, when mid-decade redistricting made the 14th district un-winnable for a Democrat, and Lamb decided to run in the 17th.
However, the powers that be (including disgraced former Rep. Tim Murphy, who publicly backed Saccone's opponent with money from his own campaign coffers) saw things differently, and Saccone lost what essentially was a general election to State Sen. Guy Reschenthaler (whom Saccone defeated in the initial primary to succeed Murphy). Reschenthaler will now almost certainly be going to Congress (possibly in a seat-for-life situation), while Saccone seems likely to be out of politics indefinitely (it's hard to find someone who lost two elections in such rapid succession who then went on to any sort of meaningful career). Meanwhile, Lamb was unopposed in the 17th, but is pitted against Rep. Keith Rothfus in one of the tightest-looking races of the November midterms.
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