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| Michael Shannon is once again precursor- deficient, but still in the hunt for Oscar |
With 2006 more than ten years away, we are now in a position where every single year for the past decade, we have had at least one person each year where they missed for the two most reliable televised American precursors, but broke through when it came to the Oscar lineup:
2016: Michael Shannon
2015: Charlotte Rampling, Tom Hardy, and Mark Ruffalo
2014: Bradley Cooper, Marion Cotillard, and Laura Dern
2015: Charlotte Rampling, Tom Hardy, and Mark Ruffalo
2014: Bradley Cooper, Marion Cotillard, and Laura Dern
2013: Jonah Hill
2012: Quvenzhane Wallis, Emannuelle Riva, and Jacki Weaver
2011: Gary Oldman and Max von Sydow
2010: Javier Bardem
2009: Maggie Gyllenhaal
2008: Michael Shannon
2007: Laura Linney and Tommy Lee Jones
The last year that didn't duplicate this feat was 2006, due almost entirely to a truly bizarre Best Supporting Actor race (where the Globes/SAG Awards nominated nine different contenders, basically unheard of since). Part of me wonders, though, if this is likely to repeat in 2017. While the year has ended relatively strongly, it's not a standout filmic year overall, and as a result awards bodies are more prone to group-think, and quite frankly in some categories (particularly the male acting fields), there's not a deep bench of competition other than what's already been cited. Plucking someone out of obscurity is going to be harder than in recent years. However, one could have said the same thing last year, or in 2009, and yet they managed to find a contender, so without further adieu, here are the ten people I think are most likely to make it on this list in a few weeks despite missing with HFPA/SAG:
(Editor's Note: You'll notice I didn't include a single contender for Best Actress which is a first for this series, and that's on-purpose. The field seems relatively locked up with Hawkins/McDormand/Robbie/Streep/Ronan all seeming pretty safe, and if one falls Globe-nominated trio Chastain/Dench/Williams will represent the one who picks up the open spot. Annette Bening & Gal Gadot are both theoretically possible, but honestly, the former is in a film too obscure to pop up with such a late release date and the latter really needed the Globes. All-in-all, I would be truly stunned if the "No Globe/SAG" nomination were to come in Lead Actress)
10. Patrick Stewart (Logan)
For Him: He's a longtime British actor, perhaps more character when it comes to film than his leading man status in television or theater, but he's a trouper who has been working as a thespian for 50+ years without notice from Oscar. His surprise BFCA nomination (we don't speak of that awards show on this blog as a rule, because they simply serve as an "Oscar predictions" site at this point, but it's worth noting here as they are particularly good at calling Oscar nominees), surely helps. Plus, Logan had very good reviews early on in the year.
Against Him: Does anyone remember those reviews? Logan could be a stealth candidate for Oscar, but Jackman's minimal heat will probably go to The Greatest Showman, and it's near impossible to be nominated for acting in a superhero movie. Stewart would be a strange inclusion, one almost without precedent, considering he missed major precursors.
9. Catherine Keener (Get Out)
For Her: When you're guessing the "No Globe/SAG" nominees, you want to remember to bet on overlooked players in Best Picture contenders and people that have been nominated for Oscar before (but generally those who haven't won yet). Two-time nominee Catherine Keener, who is starring in what I consider to be the Best Picture frontrunner, fits that bill to a tee. She's got a showy part in the film, which has been doing better with acting trophies than one would suspect (note that SAG Cast nomination), and in a lot of ways this pulls a page out of the "Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook" strategy.
Against Her: Will internal competition from Allison Williams (who I thought about for this list, but category confusion probably will hurt her thin chances as it is) be too much? Williams and Betty Gabriel both get showy parts as well, arguably more impressive than Keener's, and she hasn't been out working the crowds with this part. Can she be noticed from nowhere?
8. Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
For Her: Late-breaking word on this film is that it's good, and that Manville is a major attraction. That could help-Day-Lewis has assisted supporting ladies in the past (Fricker, Ryder, Field), and British character actors tend to be well-liked when it comes to Oscar. Another Year showed that she has the goods to land a part if it's written well, and they do get enthused for PTA.
Against Her: Is she famous enough to get a nomination out of nowhere? Note that most of the people on the above lists were movie stars when they landed the plane. Manville's going to probably get seen, but she's in the most-crowded field of the year, and will people know her well-enough to write down her name against more traditional options like Octavia Spencer or Holly Hunter?
7. Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)
For Her: Considering her role, this is the sort of nomination that feels tailor-made for Oscar. Quippy, transformed by makeup, and a long-suffering/supporting wife, KST is a former Oscar nominee in a film I think is still going to land for Best Picture citations (after watching it, I find it hard to believe that a film so in AMPAS' wheelhouse doesn't get cited for multiple categories). She deserves to have more than one nomination to her name, and she's famous enough for a sneak attack.
Against Her: The role is prominent, but not a stretch. She doesn't really have a "scene" in the way that Oldman or even Mendelsohn do. Could it be that in a year this competitive for Supporting Actress, old tropes just won't work for Oscar?
6. Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour)
For Him: Unlike KST, Mendelsohn does get a showy scene (toward the end of the picture), and is playing royalty, always a winner with the Oscars. This isn't a particularly deep bench of contenders (unlike Supporting Actress), so a nomination could be easier to come by, and while he's newer than some of these figures to film success, I have to assume that he's on Oscar's "to honor" list when it comes to character actors.
Against Him: He's not as famous as KST (give her fame to his role and I think we'd have the #1 spot on this list), and Darkest Hour isn't quite hitting the home runs I'd suspect from precursors. They just honored this role a few years ago with Colin Firth-might it feel too repetitive?
5. Julia Roberts (Wonder)
For Her: She's an Oscar favorite in a crowd-pleasing hit that is actually better than it had any right to be. AMPAS loves Julia, and has nominated her four times already (lest we forget, it's not just Erin Brockovich), and this feels like the sort of movie that would get watched at the holidays when it comes to screeners. Could she be a surprise nominee ala Tommy Lee Jones a few years back, scoring her film's sole nomination despite little precursors?
Against Her: It's hard to imagine Julia Roberts getting in with Oscar when she missed at the Globes. This isn't a traditional Oscar movie, as it's very teenage/high school, and she's not campaigning that hard for it. If there's a lot of vote-splitting, it could happen, but I think it needed precursor love to land.
4. Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
For Him: He's done this before, twice. Shannon is that rare actor who has two Oscar-nominated roles that weren't cited by the Globes (weirdly, the one time he did score at the Globes, AMPAS skipped him). That proves that they like him, even in non-traditional parts, and his role in The Shape of Water is very showy. If they really like it (very possible), might this get the double nomination rather than Three Billboards or CMBYN?
Against Him: It feels weird to think he could do this a third time, and Richard Jenkins is getting the lion's share of the credit here for a reason-he has more "Oscar Bait" scenes and doesn't play an odious villain. Shannon will have others-they may want to share the wealth in a year that really focuses on giving character actors their due.
3. Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
For Him: Gyllenhaal is arguably the best male American actor of his generation, and this is a very showy, good role. It's also well-acted and quite frankly it's a crime that someone who is so consistently terrific doesn't have a second Oscar nomination by now. They tend to like uplifting real-life stories, and Stronger is surely that.
Against Him: I don't think people remember this movie anymore. I do feel like Best Actor is rife for an upset, which is why he's in the Top 3 (Kaaluya would be a very unusual Oscar nominee considering the nature of his role (same for James Franco), and Day-Lewis/Hanks/Washington feels both vote split-prone as well as a bit uninspired for Oscar as all have been more celebrated, and recently), but no one is talking about Gyllenhaal despite that Critics Choice nomination. Do they just not like him?
2. Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)
For Her: Melissa McCarthy also was hit-and-miss with the precursor awards and still made it, and it's hard to deny that Haddish has a star-making role in one of the year's most surprising hits. Her SNL hosting gig proved that she's out there wanting this, and the combination of the NYFCC Award & the Critics Choice nomination prove that she's in the hunt here. Hong Chau in particular feels like a weak fifth slot nomination, particularly considering the poor reviews her film is getting, and could be vulnerable to someone like Haddish.
Against Her: It's a bawdy role for a conservative AMPAS, and it's worth noting that McCarthy did score the SAG nomination even if she missed at the Globes (which should have been a much easier sell for Haddish). Chau is still formidable even if she's an odd frontrunner for the final nomination, and even if she falls, that's no guarantee that Haddish can best Octavia Spencer, Kristin Scott Thomas, and Julia Roberts.
1. Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)
For Him: He's in three Best Picture frontrunners this year, and he's a long-time character actor who has never gotten his due from Oscar. Stuhlbarg seems popular and has worked with everyone, so this could be a nice way to acknowledge him. Plus, he's really good in Call Me by Your Name, and it's difficult to imagine viewers not being moved by his big scene toward the end of the picture.
Against Him: Internal competition from Hammer, and perhaps as the weak box office is indicating, not enough affection for CMBYN. Honestly, though, if one of these nominations happens I think it'll be Haddish or Stuhlbarg, with the latter getting the top position because A) I don't think Christopher Plummer can sustain momentum through voting, and Woody Harrelson's role is so inconsequential to the back half of his movie and B) it's a really good performance from a man they're going to see everywhere on screeners. I wouldn't bet on it quite yet (I have him in sixth, though in a near tie with Hammer), but it wouldn't shock me.
The last year that didn't duplicate this feat was 2006, due almost entirely to a truly bizarre Best Supporting Actor race (where the Globes/SAG Awards nominated nine different contenders, basically unheard of since). Part of me wonders, though, if this is likely to repeat in 2017. While the year has ended relatively strongly, it's not a standout filmic year overall, and as a result awards bodies are more prone to group-think, and quite frankly in some categories (particularly the male acting fields), there's not a deep bench of competition other than what's already been cited. Plucking someone out of obscurity is going to be harder than in recent years. However, one could have said the same thing last year, or in 2009, and yet they managed to find a contender, so without further adieu, here are the ten people I think are most likely to make it on this list in a few weeks despite missing with HFPA/SAG:
(Editor's Note: You'll notice I didn't include a single contender for Best Actress which is a first for this series, and that's on-purpose. The field seems relatively locked up with Hawkins/McDormand/Robbie/Streep/Ronan all seeming pretty safe, and if one falls Globe-nominated trio Chastain/Dench/Williams will represent the one who picks up the open spot. Annette Bening & Gal Gadot are both theoretically possible, but honestly, the former is in a film too obscure to pop up with such a late release date and the latter really needed the Globes. All-in-all, I would be truly stunned if the "No Globe/SAG" nomination were to come in Lead Actress)
For Him: He's a longtime British actor, perhaps more character when it comes to film than his leading man status in television or theater, but he's a trouper who has been working as a thespian for 50+ years without notice from Oscar. His surprise BFCA nomination (we don't speak of that awards show on this blog as a rule, because they simply serve as an "Oscar predictions" site at this point, but it's worth noting here as they are particularly good at calling Oscar nominees), surely helps. Plus, Logan had very good reviews early on in the year.
Against Him: Does anyone remember those reviews? Logan could be a stealth candidate for Oscar, but Jackman's minimal heat will probably go to The Greatest Showman, and it's near impossible to be nominated for acting in a superhero movie. Stewart would be a strange inclusion, one almost without precedent, considering he missed major precursors.
For Her: When you're guessing the "No Globe/SAG" nominees, you want to remember to bet on overlooked players in Best Picture contenders and people that have been nominated for Oscar before (but generally those who haven't won yet). Two-time nominee Catherine Keener, who is starring in what I consider to be the Best Picture frontrunner, fits that bill to a tee. She's got a showy part in the film, which has been doing better with acting trophies than one would suspect (note that SAG Cast nomination), and in a lot of ways this pulls a page out of the "Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook" strategy.
Against Her: Will internal competition from Allison Williams (who I thought about for this list, but category confusion probably will hurt her thin chances as it is) be too much? Williams and Betty Gabriel both get showy parts as well, arguably more impressive than Keener's, and she hasn't been out working the crowds with this part. Can she be noticed from nowhere?
For Her: Late-breaking word on this film is that it's good, and that Manville is a major attraction. That could help-Day-Lewis has assisted supporting ladies in the past (Fricker, Ryder, Field), and British character actors tend to be well-liked when it comes to Oscar. Another Year showed that she has the goods to land a part if it's written well, and they do get enthused for PTA.
Against Her: Is she famous enough to get a nomination out of nowhere? Note that most of the people on the above lists were movie stars when they landed the plane. Manville's going to probably get seen, but she's in the most-crowded field of the year, and will people know her well-enough to write down her name against more traditional options like Octavia Spencer or Holly Hunter?
For Her: Considering her role, this is the sort of nomination that feels tailor-made for Oscar. Quippy, transformed by makeup, and a long-suffering/supporting wife, KST is a former Oscar nominee in a film I think is still going to land for Best Picture citations (after watching it, I find it hard to believe that a film so in AMPAS' wheelhouse doesn't get cited for multiple categories). She deserves to have more than one nomination to her name, and she's famous enough for a sneak attack.
Against Her: The role is prominent, but not a stretch. She doesn't really have a "scene" in the way that Oldman or even Mendelsohn do. Could it be that in a year this competitive for Supporting Actress, old tropes just won't work for Oscar?
For Him: Unlike KST, Mendelsohn does get a showy scene (toward the end of the picture), and is playing royalty, always a winner with the Oscars. This isn't a particularly deep bench of contenders (unlike Supporting Actress), so a nomination could be easier to come by, and while he's newer than some of these figures to film success, I have to assume that he's on Oscar's "to honor" list when it comes to character actors.
Against Him: He's not as famous as KST (give her fame to his role and I think we'd have the #1 spot on this list), and Darkest Hour isn't quite hitting the home runs I'd suspect from precursors. They just honored this role a few years ago with Colin Firth-might it feel too repetitive?
For Her: She's an Oscar favorite in a crowd-pleasing hit that is actually better than it had any right to be. AMPAS loves Julia, and has nominated her four times already (lest we forget, it's not just Erin Brockovich), and this feels like the sort of movie that would get watched at the holidays when it comes to screeners. Could she be a surprise nominee ala Tommy Lee Jones a few years back, scoring her film's sole nomination despite little precursors?
Against Her: It's hard to imagine Julia Roberts getting in with Oscar when she missed at the Globes. This isn't a traditional Oscar movie, as it's very teenage/high school, and she's not campaigning that hard for it. If there's a lot of vote-splitting, it could happen, but I think it needed precursor love to land.
For Him: He's done this before, twice. Shannon is that rare actor who has two Oscar-nominated roles that weren't cited by the Globes (weirdly, the one time he did score at the Globes, AMPAS skipped him). That proves that they like him, even in non-traditional parts, and his role in The Shape of Water is very showy. If they really like it (very possible), might this get the double nomination rather than Three Billboards or CMBYN?
Against Him: It feels weird to think he could do this a third time, and Richard Jenkins is getting the lion's share of the credit here for a reason-he has more "Oscar Bait" scenes and doesn't play an odious villain. Shannon will have others-they may want to share the wealth in a year that really focuses on giving character actors their due.
For Him: Gyllenhaal is arguably the best male American actor of his generation, and this is a very showy, good role. It's also well-acted and quite frankly it's a crime that someone who is so consistently terrific doesn't have a second Oscar nomination by now. They tend to like uplifting real-life stories, and Stronger is surely that.
Against Him: I don't think people remember this movie anymore. I do feel like Best Actor is rife for an upset, which is why he's in the Top 3 (Kaaluya would be a very unusual Oscar nominee considering the nature of his role (same for James Franco), and Day-Lewis/Hanks/Washington feels both vote split-prone as well as a bit uninspired for Oscar as all have been more celebrated, and recently), but no one is talking about Gyllenhaal despite that Critics Choice nomination. Do they just not like him?
For Her: Melissa McCarthy also was hit-and-miss with the precursor awards and still made it, and it's hard to deny that Haddish has a star-making role in one of the year's most surprising hits. Her SNL hosting gig proved that she's out there wanting this, and the combination of the NYFCC Award & the Critics Choice nomination prove that she's in the hunt here. Hong Chau in particular feels like a weak fifth slot nomination, particularly considering the poor reviews her film is getting, and could be vulnerable to someone like Haddish.
Against Her: It's a bawdy role for a conservative AMPAS, and it's worth noting that McCarthy did score the SAG nomination even if she missed at the Globes (which should have been a much easier sell for Haddish). Chau is still formidable even if she's an odd frontrunner for the final nomination, and even if she falls, that's no guarantee that Haddish can best Octavia Spencer, Kristin Scott Thomas, and Julia Roberts.
For Him: He's in three Best Picture frontrunners this year, and he's a long-time character actor who has never gotten his due from Oscar. Stuhlbarg seems popular and has worked with everyone, so this could be a nice way to acknowledge him. Plus, he's really good in Call Me by Your Name, and it's difficult to imagine viewers not being moved by his big scene toward the end of the picture.
Against Him: Internal competition from Hammer, and perhaps as the weak box office is indicating, not enough affection for CMBYN. Honestly, though, if one of these nominations happens I think it'll be Haddish or Stuhlbarg, with the latter getting the top position because A) I don't think Christopher Plummer can sustain momentum through voting, and Woody Harrelson's role is so inconsequential to the back half of his movie and B) it's a really good performance from a man they're going to see everywhere on screeners. I wouldn't bet on it quite yet (I have him in sixth, though in a near tie with Hammer), but it wouldn't shock me.
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