Friday, December 29, 2017

2018 Predictions

It's nearly New Year's Eve, and that means resolution time.  I'll be getting to a resolution I have in a few days via a post, but in the meantime, I figured we should continue a longtime tradition on TMROJ with a number of predictions I have for the new year.  Keeping in the theme of this blog, I will go with 20 political predictions and 18 entertainment-based ones, and for the hell of it, seven personal predictions for myself.

(Note, since we live in the era of "Fake News"-these are just predictions, not things that are grounded in anything other than educated guesses...I have no actual proof these things will happen other than some gut instinct)

FBI Director Robert Mueller
Political

1. A government shutdown will occur in January, with Republicans trying to negotiate keeping Medicare/Social Security spending levels at their current rate while in the process sacrificing DACA (Democrats will demand both).  It will last two weeks, with Republicans getting most of what they want when Sens. Collins & Murkowski cave on their Medicaid demands
2. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will step down, being replaced by CIA Director Mike Pompeo, who will then be replaced by Sen. Tom Cotton (to the chagrin of Mitch McConnell, though Cotton will ultimately be replaced by a Republican).
3. Secretary of Defense James Mattis will become the focus of unexpected retirement rumors in mid-2018 that will ultimately go nowhere.
4. Robert Mueller's investigation will indict a number of key Trump advisors in February, though not yet Jared Kushner, which will lead to President Trump considering publicly firing Mueller, but ultimately deciding against it.
5. A major media storm will erupt early in the year when it is discovered that some portions of President Trump's physical results were not released to the public, causing major concerns over whether or not the president is suffering from some sort of dementia-related illness.
6. Marie Newman will defeat Rep. Dan Lipinski in a Democratic Primary in Illinois after a last-minute endorsement from Emily's List gives her a boost, which will largely cement the death of the pro-life Democrat in Congress.
7. Steve Bannon will have a mostly unsuccessful primary season, unable to defeat any elected Republican incumbent senator despite numerous attempts.
8. Kellyanne Conway will depart the White House to work at a DC think tank, and immediately get a 7-figure deal from a publishing house that will be roundly criticized due to her history with factual inaccuracies and the gag order she was forced to sign coming out of the White House.  The publishing company will take a bath after the book fails to meet sales expectations and receives tepid reviews.
9. Republican Sens. Thad Cochran and John McCain will both resign their Senate seats due to health concerns, being replaced by Tate Reeves & Martha McSally.  Neither will survive a Steve Bannon-backed challenger, and will be roundly criticized by President Trump after their primary losses.
10. Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch will ultimately decide to run for reelection, causing some to question whether Gov. Mitt Romney will run against him in the primary (he won't).
11. Sen. Dianne Feinstein will barely win a runoff against State Senate President Kevin de Leon.  De Leon's thin loss will have the press stating that Bernie Sanders could be the frontrunner for the nomination in 2020.
12. Jared Kushner will be indicted upon multiple counts by Robert Mueller in early September, setting up a constitutional crisis when President Trump fires Assistant Attorney General Rod Rosenstein in hopes of firing Mueller, but is surprised when Rachel Brand also refuses to fire Mueller.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
13. Following Rosenstein's firing and Brand's refusal to fire Mueller, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi says (based on enormous pressure from her political base) that she will bring articles of impeachment against Trump should he fire Brand or Mueller from their positions.  This will reframe an election that had largely been focused on the increasingly shaky economy and an unstable insurance market.
14. President Trump will stoop to the lowest approval ratings of any president since Harry Truman when the Gallup poll will show him at 23% approval rating in early October.  He will claim this is "fake news."
15. In a huge shock, Sen. Bob Menendez loses his primary against an unknown political science professor whom he vastly outspends but who catches onto the grassroots movement in the state while running on a "clean government" platform.  The professor still wins the seat, though does publicly flirt with not endorsing Sen. Schumer for Senate leader.
16. In a surprise move, Rep. Keith Ellison will challenge Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House after the Democrats pick up a surprisingly large 48 seats in the November midterms, mostly in suburban districts.  Pelosi will survive the challenge in large part due to a preview of the 2020 presidential election, as Ellison will receive the endorsement of Bernie Sanders, prompting his theoretical rivals for the nomination Kirsten Gillibrand & Kamala Harris to proclaim that Pelosi needs to stay on so there is a woman represented in congressional leadership.  Elizabeth Warren will not endorse in the contest, leading to speculation that she does not have the stomach to run for the White House.
17. In a nod to critics who say she is too old to stay on as Speaker, Pelosi will endorse Reps. Joaquin Castro and Terri Sewell for the #2 and #3 positions in the House.  Castro will best Steny Hoyer in a close contest, while Jim Clyburn will step aside and endorse Sewell, and then promptly retire.
18. After losing his Speaker's gavel, Paul Ryan will announce his retirement from the House, and in an echo of Denny Hastert in 2008, will be replaced by a Democrat, former Rep. Peter Barca (Randy "the Iron Stache" Bryce will lose the primary despite having the most cash-on-hand).
19. Senate Republicans will endure a massive loss in the November election, with all incumbent Democrats winning (despite Sens. Donnelly & McCaskill heading into Election Day behind in their RCP polling average), and losing 5 seats.  Reps. Kyrsten Sinema & Jacky Rosen both win by 5-points, while the open seats of Sens. McCain & Cochran both going to Democrats.  In the biggest surprise of Election Night, Rep. Beto O'Rourke defeats Sen. Ted Cruz by less than percentage point thanks to huge turnout amongst African-American and Latino strongholds in Dallas, Houston, and Austin.  Despite this, Sen. McConnell survives a leadership challenge from Sen. Mike Lee (though Lee is endorsed by McConnell's home-state senator Rand Paul).
20. A constitutional crisis is set off when Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy retires after the midterms, with Sen. McConnell trying to keep the appointed Republicans in office instead of seating the elected Sens. Mark Kelly and Brandon Presley in Arizona and Mississippi immediately after certification, respectively.  Ultimately, McConnell will emerge unsuccessful in his attempts as Kelly & Presley sue to be seated and are backed by federal judges.  Chuck Schumer will promptly declare a moratorium on seating any Trump judicial nominees until after the 2020 presidential elections, citing the "Garland Precedent."

Timothee Chalamet
Entertainment

1. After a tell-all interview with his ex-wife Amber Heard leads to other allegations of abuse, Johnny Depp will be forced to drop out of the Fantastic Beasts sequel and be replaced by Colin Farrell.  This will cost Warner Brothers upwards of $50 million, but ultimately will be considered worth it when Farrell's performance is widely praised.
2. The Oscars will endure an #OscarsSoStraight campaign after Call Me by Your Name misses in the Best Picture category despite solid reviews, one year after Moonlight picked up Best Picture.  Few will note that the film's staggered release schedule ultimately contributed to the film's missing of the nomination more than the gay content.
3. In what will be called a shock, Get Out will take the Best Picture & Director Oscars over more traditional fare The Post and Dunkirk.  The win will be overshadowed by President Trump making racially insensitive remarks about the film the following morning on Twitter, prompting filmmakers Steven Spielberg and Christopher Nolan to be forced to defend their losses.
4. In part a reaction to the #OscarsSoStraight campaign, Timothee Chalamet will win the Best Actor Oscar, becoming the youngest person ever to take the trophy.
5. Protests from women's groups will result in last year's Best Actor winner, Casey Affleck, to decline presenting the Best Actress award.  Acquiescing, the Oscars will instead have Ashley Judd present the category.
6. Frozen will open on Broadway to boffo box office but middling reviews, with most saying the new songs for the movie do not have the luster of the original.  Despite this, it will be nominated for the Best Musical Tony Award, but ultimately lose to The Band's Visit.
7. Seth MacFarlane will announce that Family Guy will have its final season in 2018-19.  In the series premiere in September, Stewie officially comes out of the closet.
8. Kim Kardashian and Kanye West endure numerous divorce rumors that ultimately go nowhere after West admits to infidelity on a surprise new album.
9. Robin Wright wins an Emmy Award for the final season of House of Cards, and does not thank longtime costar Kevin Spacey in her speech, a fact media outlets will call controversial, even though no one is actually saying she should have thanked him.
10. Veep receives poor reviews for its finale, when Jonah Ryan is elected president with Selina Meyer serving as his VP.  Critics call the ending predictable and bordering on sexist.
11. James Corden faces backlash for inviting Ivanka Trump to appear on his program in a segment of "Spill Your Guts or Fill Your Guts."
12. Jersey Shore: Family Vacation is considered a flop, with fans saying the characters are too tame, while the cast endures criticism over controversial parenting decisions on the series.  MTV does not renew.
13. Ashley Wagner will barely qualify for the US Olympic team in 2018, and will watch her fellow teammate Bradie Tennell best her Olympic dreams when Tennell takes a gold to Wagner's bronze.  Russian Evgenia Medvedeva will make headlines following the event by roundly criticizing both women, saying they only made the medal stand because she was forced to sit out due to the Russian boycott, which will cause an international uproar when Presidents Putin & Trump weigh in on her comments.
14. After an unsuccessful run at Wimbledon, tennis legend Venus Williams will announce her retirement from tennis.
15. Love, Simon will become the surprise hit of the spring, prompting many to ask for more diversity in high school movies.
16. Twitter will changes its policy on editing tweets, but will still face mounting criticism for not enforcing its hate speech policy fully enough.
17. Ralph Fiennes will be cast to replace Matt Smith on The Crown for Netflix, and it will also be announced that the series will take place in the 1970's, skipping most of the late 1960's in QEII's reign.
18. Ultimately Prince Harry and Meghan Markle's wedding will be televised, though to considerably smaller ratings than the Will & Kate wedding years earlier.

Andy Murray
Personal

1. I will once again have my vacation plans ruined by a Republican government shutdown, with the national park I'm visiting in a few weeks closed in a similar fashion to the sequester causing me to miss my flight to see Cinderella with Laura Osnes a few years ago.  I will make this joke on Facebook and get 27 impressions, mostly angry faces or thumbs up.
2. In mid-March, I will finish my novel after 15 years of editing and writing, and promptly start in on the second book, which I will complete by Christmas.  Despite protesting to friends that I don't want to publish it, I'll still research getting an agent without telling anyone, but ultimately decide it isn't worth the effort.
3. In early April, while I won't hit my "ideal weight," I will deem myself thin enough to start dating again.  I will celebrate this fact by going on a shopping spree for new clothes, and regret purchasing at least two items, but will have already thrown away the receipts before deciding the clothes are "too out there" for me.
4. In mid-May, I will meet my first serious boyfriend in a number of years, a 31-year-old science teacher named Ben.  This relationship will still be going into 2019, and will prompt a number of "I told you so's" from my friends who have had to endure a rousing chorus of "I will never find someone's" from me for a decade now, despite the fact that I will point out that I predicted this on my blog.  I will gladly endure these taunts, however, as I will be too happy to want to have been right.  Ben will be amused by this post when he finds it, since I got the name, age, and occupation wrong, but weirdly not the timing of our starting to date.
5. In late August, I will officially have less than 2000 Oscar Viewing Project films viewed, crossing that threshold with an obscure Best Sound nominee from 1947.
6. In Europe, I will visit Europe for the first time in 17 years, but first attend the US Open where I will meet several professional tennis players, but unfortunately not Andy Murray (though I will see him play and post my very first Insta story from the match).
7. In November, I will finally buy a house, my first ever, and promptly afterwards buy a dog.  He will be a small mixed breed that I get from the pound, and I will name him Harmonica, even though everyone I know thinks its weird.

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