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| Gov-elect Ralph Northam (D-VA) |
I have said for months that you would be able to tell if the Democrats had a good night if they won the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia. Anything less than winning both would be a failure, success in both would be a win-it was a pretty solid line in the concrete. Yesterday, they delivered in both, though it has to be said they won in an enormous fashion. Ambassador Phil Murphy's win in New Jersey, though the below-the-line race of the two, was actually the one that improved the Democrats numbers in gubernatorial counts which has turned anemic since 2014, since he will replace a Republican This marks the first time since 2013 that the Democrats have ended the night with a net gain in governorships, and also is a capper on the intense rise-and-fall of Chris Christie, who entered politics eight years ago a likely future president and leaves office a bitter punchline, the man who sold out for Donald Trump and then couldn't even end up in his cabinet. Murphy's win means that the Democrats have total control in New Jersey, sothere could be a pretty bold legislative agenda out of the Garden State come January.
The big race of the night, though, was in Virginia, where Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam had seen his polling numbers slip to a near tie in recent days, as former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie had gained ground with a nasty, Trump-style racist campaign that had received criticisms from all over the political punditry, but seemed to be working. Working, that is, until Election Day when Northam clobbered Gillespie, winning a huge number of voters in Northern and Eastern Virginia to shut down Gillespie in a rout. While the short-term picture here is that Northam (along with his fellow statewide Democrats Justin Fairfax and Mark Herring) helped the Democrats win all statewide races for the second cycle in a row in Virginia, the longer-term impact could be that Republicans don't have a solution for how to beat Democrats in marginally-blue territory with Trump in charge. Gillespie tried to pull a move from the Trump playbook, but it seemed to backfire without Trump actually making that play. And make no mistake-this was a massive referendum on Donald Trump, particularly from voters who until a year ago, equated he and Hillary Clinton as about the same.
Also, though I don't know that I take him seriously as a candidate quite yet, outgoing Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe won bigger than pretty much anyone last night if he wants to run a presidential campaign. Being the guy who says "I know how to beat Trump" and has the victories to prove it (his legacy was on the line last night) is a pretty solid campaign argument.
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| State Rep.-elect Cheryl Turpin (D-VA), one of the many Dems who beat Republican incumbents in Virginia last night |
Northam, though, wasn't that much of a surprise. I was nervous, admittedly, in the days leading up to last night, but I would have predicted Northam and Murphy both to win, albeit not quite by the margins that came out of the race. No, the real shock of last night was the Virginia General Assembly, where Democrats may well have won the legislative body. They apparently have picked up at least 14 of the 17 seats they needed (even the most optimistic of forecasts put their cap at ten), and depending on recounts, have enough seats in play where they could either enter a power-sharing agreement (even numbered legislature without a constitutional tiebreaker are so bizarre), or win the majority outright. That's a huge deal for Ralph Northam, who would then only need to peel off one vote from the State Senate to also have complete control of the Virginia legislature (expect McAuliffe's goal of getting the Medicaid Expansion to the Old Dominion to finally become reality in the next year or so).
These wins come with a catch though, one that Democrats need to notice-almost all of those wins were in seats won by Hillary Clinton. The Democrats largely took this not necessarily by overcoming gerrymandering (it says something still that they can't quite hit the majority while Northam is well above 50% statewide), but by running-the-board in districts that went for the Democrats in 2016, but have historically been friendly to Republicans down-ballot. So far only one district was won by Trump and flipped. While Democrats in Georgia and Michigan won special elections in seats that went to Trump, this could show some of the challenges presented to Nancy Pelosi in winning a House majority in 2018. That being said, it also shows that candidates like Erik Paulson, Barbara Comstock, and Darrell Issa, who are in rich suburban districts that went for Hillary Clinton, could be in more trouble than we've even anticipated.
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| State Rep.-elect Danica Roem (D-VA) |
Easily my favorite moment of last night was in Virginia's General Assembly, where homophobic Rep. Bob Marshall, one of the most anti-LGBT politicians in the country (and lately that's quite the competition) was defeated by Danica Roem, the first openly transgender woman ever elected to a state legislature anywhere. Marshall's campaign against Roem was deeply transphobic, with he himself referring to her as "a guy in a dress" and Roem's campaign, rather than shying away from being transgender, embraced it with a compelling personal advertisement that reverberated with the community. It's worth noting that in order to win, Roem had to have won over a number of traditionally Republican voters whom Marshall had won in the past, so this is a big sign of progress, and could make Roem a politician to watch in the future.
Roem wasn't the only LGBT success last night, though. In Minneapolis, Andrea Jenkins won a city on the City Council, making her the first trans person ever elected to a major city's governing body and one of the first trans women of color elected to any office in the United States. Dawn Adams became the first openly lesbian woman ever elected to the Virginia General Assembly in a surprise upset and Jenny Durkan became Seattle's first lesbian mayor. All-in-all, it was a splendid night for LGBT Democrats (and in particular Democratic women) running for public office, and a night of historic firsts.
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| Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-ME) |
Perhaps the biggest tangible win of last night may not have involved an elected office at all, but instead a ballot referendum in Maine. Last night Maine became the 33rd state to enact the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act, but the first to do so via a ballot initiative, with Democrats (headed by House Speaker Sara Gideon, a name I suspect we'll hear more of in the coming years), successfully winning approval despite Gov. Paul LePage's disapproval.
One of the under-sung aspects of 2018 may be the ballot initiative. 17 other states don't have the Medicaid expansion, which remains a popular measure in red states even if it's not popular with Republicans, and based on last night, I suspect that we could be seeing more states attempting to pass the Medicaid Expansion and other populist measures through ballot measure. Nine of those 17 states have measures in place that would allow this to go to a ballot initiative, including in states like Florida and Missouri where Democrats running in gubernatorial and Senate races may feel the added benefit of having a popular ballot measure that might attract lower-income voters (who are harder to convince to come to the polls) to get out the vote and help them through coattails. If I were Claire McCaskill or Bill Nelson, I'd be polling this yesterday. It's definitely something I anticipate we'll see discussed.
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| Charlotte Mayor-elect Vi Lyles (D-NC) |
One year ago today, the first female major-party candidate in history, despite winning by 3 million votes, lost the White House to a man who has been accused of sexual harassment by over a dozen women. This has not, however, deterred women, and in fact seems to have emboldened them, in a similar vein to what happened as a result of an all-male Senate Judiciary Panel grilling Anita Hill some 25 years ago.
Look for starters at the Virginia General Assembly. Though it's still up-in-the-air on who won the majority, Democrats are confirmed to have won 14 seats, ten of which went to female candidates. Almost all of these women were first-time candidates, many who said Hillary Clinton (or, by proxy, Donald Trump) inspired them to get into the race. This resulted in a number of firsts, not just for Danica Roem, but also Hala Ayala and Elizabeth Guzman (the first Latina members of the Virginia General Assembly) and Kathy Tran (the first Asian-American woman elected to the Virginia General Assembly. But all over the country women were enjoying historic firsts. The Washington State Senate switched to Democratic control thanks to Manka Dhingra winning a special election. Manchester, New Hampshire (the state's largest city) elected its first female mayor in Joyce Craig and Vi Lyles became the first African-American women ever elected mayor of Charlotte. Even Republican women had a decent night, with Michelle Kaufusi becoming the first woman ever elected mayor of Provo. And I have to throw in that my home town, a small rural community in Minnesota, elected its first female mayor as well. All-in-all, women continued to become a major part of the political conversation, proving Hillary Clinton's legacy may well outlast Donald Trump's.
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| Rep. Martha McSally (R-AZ) |
This isn't necessarily related to the election yesterday, but it has to be said since I'm now out of the blog until December 1st (don't worry-you'll continue getting a once-daily article in the meantime) that this could have huge repercussions for 2018. Yesterday three Republican members of the House announced (or indicated) that they would not be running for reelection: Frank LoBiondo (NJ), Martha McSally (AZ), and Ted Poe (TX). While McSally is not retiring, but instead running for the state's open Senate seat, it's a sign of Republicans either moving up or moving out in marginal districts. McSally, for example, is a Republican who is currently holding office in a district that Hillary Clinton won, and with her out it has to be assumed that former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick has the advantage to pick up the seat.
LoBiondo is another Republican that most Democrats are salivating at his retirement. While Donald Trump did win the district in 2016, so did Barack Obama, and the Democrats already have a very popular local legislator in moderate Democratic State Sen. Jeff van Drew who seems near-certain to run. Considering the routing that Republicans just had in the Garden State, they could be in for trouble if incumbents like LoBiondo decide to vacate, as last night's elections did nothing to inspire the GOP that Trump isn't going to be a weight around their neck, nor did it deter Democrats who might be coaxed into running for swing seats, even if they have well-established incumbents.
There's always more to discuss on Election Day, so have at it in the comments, but I'm ending it there so I can get back to NaNoWriMo. See you in a few weeks, but I'll be checking comments so feel free to join in!
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