The Hillary Dilemma

Sec. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY)

The recent run of polls from Quinnipiac where Hillary Clinton is running behind in three key swing states (Virginia, Colorado, and Iowa) to Scott Walker, Jeb Bush, and Marco Rubio has gotten a lot of attention.  I'm pretty sure the editors over at Breitbart had a collective orgasm (my apologies for that mental picture).  Most pundits rightly pointed out that a poll of a single state is meaningless at this juncture-if the past three presidential cycles are any indication, national polls are more important at this state of the game.  In 2004 President Bush won almost every single swing state, and in 2008/2012, the same could be said for President Obama (keep in mind that North Carolina was closer to going to Obama than Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia were to going for Mitt Romney).  As a result, national polling showing her down would be more telling, and even that would be questionable considering that all of them (with the possible exception of Jeb Bush) are more likely "generic Republican" than an actual candidate in the minds of voters, and generic candidates always do better than actual candidates because you can run against someone.

That being said, it needs to be acknowledged since we are months out from Sec. Clinton's announcement that it's not going well.  In fact, it's been a pretty poor campaign so far.  I am a Democrat, I will admit, but I try to be as objective as possible when observing both parties, and as a result I can tell when one of my own is screwing things up.  While I don't see him as an actual threat to Clinton winning the nomination, I do think the fact that Sen. Bernie Sanders, a man who doesn't even call himself a Democrat, can get thousands of people to his rallies and continues to inch up in the polls is eyebrow-raising. I think it's more telling that Vice President Joe Biden, possibly the only Democrat in the country who could actually beat Clinton in a primary, is actually looking at these polls and seems more and more inclined to make a stab at the presidency.  Make no mistake about it-Clinton is curious about Sanders, but worried about Biden.  The reality is, though, that a poor campaign is causing these sorts of discrepancies, and making her weak in polling.

It's clear now that it was a mistake to ignore the national media as long as she did, and that perhaps Clinton's team (or Clinton herself) doesn't quite get the new social media game.  Whatever Hillary Clinton does makes news (just look at the Chipotle coverage), in the same way that whatever Donald Trump or Jeb Bush does makes news-she's a celebrity, a big-time celebrity who sells clicks and retweets, and so ignoring the media was never an option since they were going to get a story regardless, but what it did do was play into a lot of the stereotypes that the country has about Hillary Clinton.  Fair or unfair, while Clinton demands a lot of admiration, she has a few key flaws a lot of people believe about her: that she's hiding something, untrustworthy, and that she's out-of-touch.  If her goal was to reestablish herself, possibly the single worst way to do that was to ignore the media.  While questions regarding the Clinton Foundation and her email account at the State Department raged on, she answered no questions, and in fact literally kept the press roped off in a photo opp that was so atrocious she had to go on CNN.  I don't remotely understand why she didn't get out there right away, and make this election about ALL the people, and not just the people of Iowa and New Hampshire, because the rest of the country isn't getting to meet her one-on-one.  They're expecting CNN, NBC, ABC, HuffPo, and all of their social media to carry interviews and comments regarding the potential future president to feel part of her campaign.

The reality is, though, that Hillary Clinton may be accomplished and could well be a superb president, but she has always been a lousy candidate.  Both of the Clintons share an unwavering loyalty to their inner-circle that makes them far too insulated and they maintain a guard and need for control that even for a politician borders on the comical.  Mrs. Clinton doesn't come across as warm in interviews, everything feels too rehearsed and by-the-script.  For decades people have said they wish the public could see the "real Hillary," but at this point she's been one of the country's most famous citizens for 24 years-if it hasn't happened yet, it's not going to happen.  In many ways she recalls Mitt Romney, but with an entirely different set of beliefs.  Romney had executive experience, and demanded a lot of respect, but he's a lousy politician as he can't connect with voters.  People like Bill Clinton, Joe Biden, and Barack Obama have that ease with voters where they can appear in-the-moment, off-the-cuff, and like they're speaking directly to you and not to the camera recording behind you.  The same can be said for women like Amy Klobuchar, Claire McCaskill, and Heidi Heitkamp.  Hillary Clinton does not have that ease, and considering that she's been in the public purview for 24 years, it's doubtful she is going to gain that skill.

This isn't to say she can't be president.  George HW Bush frequently came across as stiff, out-of-touch, and wasn't remotely the public speaker that Ronald Reagan was, but he still won the 1988 election, and likely could have won in 1992 had Ross Perot not campaigned as a third party candidate.  Hillary Clinton can certainly win-the dynamics of the electoral college still are in her favor (it says something that she doesn't necessarily need Colorado, Virginia, and Iowa, whereas the Republicans basically have to have them).  However, as a member of the party, if I don't start seeing some improvements in her campaign, I'm going to start looking awfully close at Joe Biden and seeing if he has a shot.  Because if Hillary Clinton can't nail down a Democratic Primary that has been laid out in front of her as a coronation, and not start improving her skills (which appear damn rusty right now), she's going to lose the White House and all of the Supreme Court nominations, environmental protection laws, and the hundreds of other issues Democrats have worked so hard under President Obama to gain and improve.  There's still a lot of work to be done, and if Clinton's not up to the task, it's better to find that out while we can still pick another candidate.