1. Modern Family
2. Veep
3. The Big Bang Theory
4. Transparent
5. Louie
6. Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
7. Silicon Valley
The Lowdown: Before you start to complain, yes, I do think that Modern Family will almost certainly lose this season-the backlash is too high and it's at a point where it might pick up an acting trophy still, but the big enchilada is out of its reach. However, this is a prediction for the nominations, and it would be a massive upset if it missed a nomination, so it gets the top post, as do all of last year's eligible nominees. With Orange is the New Black now over in drama and the field expanded, that still leaves room for two, and because of the buzz I'm going with the Tina Fey-creation Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt and the zeitgeist-y Transparent over Jane the Virgin, though I feel like there might be a contingency of the Academy that wants to honor the CW for finally having a show that could compete here. If there's a surprise, it's Jane.
1. Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent)
2. Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)
3. Louis CK (Louie)
4. William H. Macy (Shameless)
5. Matt LeBlanc (Episodes)
6. Don Cheadle (House of Lies)
The Lowdown: That yawn you're feeling is collective, but what do you expect me to do here? This is a category that has seen finer days and is one that the Emmys just keep repeating and repeating and repeating. It says something that I went with five of last year's nominees (Ricky Gervais in Derek wasn't eligible) and the new guy is a six-time Emmy nominee who is almost certain to win. The only other major names are Billy Crystal in The Comedians and Anthony Anderson in Black-ish, neither of which are what you'd call new-and-exciting nominees. At least Tambor has never won before so we'll be crossing him off the list of actors who needed an Emmy this year.
1. Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)
2. Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation)
3. Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie)
4. Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
5. Lisa Kudrow (The Comeback)
6. Gina Rodriguez (Jane the Virgin)
The Lowdown: Unlike its comedic male counterpart but very much like its dramatic female counterpart, Lead Actress in a Comedy seems like a race both for nominations and for wins. We'll have to wait a few months to see if Amy Poehler gets a sentimental trophy after years of chasing one for Parks (though it seems likely she'll win for hosting the Globes so it might not be as emotional as we would like) or whether JLD gets another trophy, but both are in, as is perennial nominee Edie Falco. Lisa Kudrow got in about a decade ago for Valerie Cherish, and I think she has enough pull to make it again, as does Ellie Kemper as the title character on Kimmy Schmidt. For the final slot, I could have gone with legends Jane Fonda and Lily Tomlin for Grace & Frankie, but I have a feeling they'll cancel each other out (though Tomlin has a slight advantage in the polls), and Amy Schumer might have made it in a less-charged field, but I think that the new star buzz of Gina Rodriguez is going to get her just over the finish line (and potentially throw a monkey wrench in the process in the JLD v. Amy Poehler battle).
1. Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
2. Tony Hale (Veep)
3. Tituss Burgess (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
4. Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)
5. Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)
6. Hugh Laurie (Veep)
The Lowdown: It's always hard to tell which of the Modern Family guys is going to randomly make it and which aren't, so I'm going with the two from last year again and calling it a day (it could really be any combination of the four, though Burrell surely has to make it). Tony Hale and Andre Braugher are mandatory nominees at this point, and I suspect that Tituss Burgess is not only going to be the new man on the block, but probably will end up winning for his scene-stealing Titus. Finishing off the category could well be Hugh Laurie, a longtime Emmy bridesmaid still in the hunt for his first trophy. Depending on the strength of Grace & Frankie Martin Sheen or Sam Waterston, both Emmy perennials themselves could also make it, as could bonafide movie star Chris Pratt (lest we forget George Clooney started gaining nominations when he began headlining movies), but I'm sticking with these six for now.
1. Allison Janney (Mom)
2. Julie Bowen (Modern Family)
3. Anna Chlumsky (Veep)
4. Judith Light (Transparent)
5. Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
6. Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory)
The Lowdown: I feel like the Top 5 are set in stone. You have endless nominees like Janney and Bowen, Kate McKinnon who is basically just getting warm-up citations for next year, when she will likely win for her Hillary Clinton election-season performance (she's the new Amy Poehler, except I think she might actually take it), Anna Chlumsky who benefits from a less competitive field and two previous nominations to have a base of support, and Judith Light, a TV icon who has only one nomination to her name and has a plum role in a major series. The final slot comes down to a few questions. I feel like love for The Big Bang Theory slipped quite a bit this season, and Bialik is vulnerable despite three previous nods for the same role, but there's only really two contenders who could take her out. One is Sofia Vergara, who is on a show that people are also a bit tired of (and let's face it, hasn't had the best year, press-wise) and the other is a new show with Emmy favorite Jane Krakowski (Kimmy Schmidt), which could be stronger than we expect, but her role is definitely the third showiest-will that be enough? I could honestly see Vergara or Krakowski both sneaking in at this point, but without some more proof I'm sticking with Bialik.
And there you have it-we still have Miniseries to go, but in the meantime, share your thoughts on whom you think should and will win, and which nominees I was crazy to skip!
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