5 What If's for the 2016 Presidential Election

Growing up, one of my favorite comic book series was What If, a series by Marvel where we get an alternative history of a known event, one that caused out our current aspect of the Marvel universe.  These sorts of comic books often led to fanciful (and frequently disastrous) consequences, but were always interesting in the way that "alternate history" usually is.  I sometimes wonder about these "What If?" comics when approaching an election season.  So much of an election is based upon the fact that a candidate or series of candidates were just damn lucky.  Skill is only part of the equation-luck is a bigger part of the answer, and the five points below illustrate this theory.

1. What If...Rudy Giuliani had stayed in the Senate race in 2000?

Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)

It seems like ancient history now, but once upon a time Rudy Giuliani was a major political force in America and was seen as a serious candidate to succeed Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan in New York.  At the time it was emerging as what would become one of the ugliest and most marquee Senate races in American political history: the mayor of the world's largest city, and one of the country's most noted politicians, was willing to run against the sitting First Lady in a state she'd never called her home.  Giuliani was forced out of the race, amidst a cancer revelation and an ugly public divorce with Donna Hanover that dominated the New York tabloids, and Hillary went on to win the seat.

However, it's not to say he was DOA if he had stayed in the race.  Clinton went on to face Rep. Rick Lazio, who ran a lackluster campaign denouncing Clinton as a carpetbagger, but was just as disorganized as Clinton (whose first Senate campaign was hardly a model in political savviness).  Had Rudy been in the race, those moments where she nearly lost the race (polling showed close races on a regular basis, especially over the summer) could have been more frequent.  Rudy pulling off the upset would have been possible (Ben Nelson, for example, won Nebraska as a Democrat that year despite Al Gore losing it in a landslide in 2000) and would have ended Hillary's electoral career before it began.  Without Hillary in the race, the Democrats have a completely different attitude toward 2008 and 2016.  In 2008, more of the Democrats' heavy-hitters (Al Gore, Gov. Mark Warner, Gov. Howard Dean) may have taken a more serious look at the race, and some of the candidates that ran behind Obama/Clinton could well have emerged from the pack.  Particularly worrisome for the Democrats would be the fact that John Edwards would have been a formidable opponent to Barack Obama in a way that Hillary wasn't, and may have kept Rielle Hunter at bay long enough to win the nomination.  This also would have meant a completely different race in 2016, of course, with perhaps Barack Obama just now emerging as a presidential hopeful, or again names like Gore, Elizabeth Warren, and Joe Biden coming into play.

2. What If...Charlie Crist hadn't backed the stimulus bill in 2009?

Gov. Charlie Crist (R/I/D-FL)

It's hard to imagine that Charlie Crist used to be a major political force in American politics, but in 2009 he certainly was.  The governor of Florida, coming off a robust win in the quintessential swing state, had gained a following amongst establishment Republicans, and many people thought he would run for president in 2012.  I remember thinking at the time that his decision to forego a reelection run and instead run for the Senate seat seemed opportunistic and foolish, but it also was a race he was certain to win, especially in a primary that seemed cleared for him and where the Democrats were probably going to end up with a poor candidate in Rep. Kendrick Meek.

However, Crist backed the stimulus bill in 2009, which he had no way of knowing would be a huge catalyst for the Tea Party movement, and would eventually cause Marco Rubio, a state legislator with little chance prior to that of upending a sitting a governor, to find a way into the race.  If he had taken a stronger hardline early on, he would have ended Rubio's fledgling career (at the time everyone thought Rubio was a fool for running, including the NRSC who endorsed Crist initially) and would have been the presidential contender in 2012 or 2016, not the young man who eventually became a first-tier candidate in 2016.

3. What if...the Democrats hadn't recalled Scott Walker?

Mayor Tom Barrett (D-WI)

In 2012, the Wisconsin Democrats did what may have been one of the most foolish political moves I've ever seen: they ran a recall race against Gov. Scott Walker.  At the time I thought this was complete idiocy-Walker had done nothing illegal, was fairly elected in the Badger State in 2010, and while he had rightfully drawn the ire of labor and teachers' unions, he had done nothing that seemed to warrant a recall.  The Democrats in the state couldn't stand the idea of Walker staying in office for another two years, however, and so they sought to run a race against Walker, attempting to recall him with the same man that he lost to two years earlier, Mayor Tom Barrett.  The result was that Walker ended up becoming a folk hero in the Republican Party, the man who took on the unions and not only won, but ended up making the Democrats the villains in a blue state.  The Democrats made certain that he went into 2014 with an advantage, and had no bench outside of Barrett, who was damaged goods after two statewide losses.

If the Democrats had had some patience, however, the tale may have been different.  They could have run a perfect storm candidacy in 2014, tacking union hatred on with the state's sluggish economic numbers, and probably would have been able to run Barrett again instead of the unproven Mary Burke.  In that situation, they may well have defeated the man who would become a favorite of the conservative movement, giving rise to less palatable candidates like Ted Cruz or Rick Perry to gain in the primaries.

4. What if...no one had taped Mitt Romney's 47% comment?

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)

If there was ever a nail in Mitt Romney's 2012 chances, it was the video of him saying that 47% of the country only is voting for Obama for the "free stuff" that they received.  Romney, already in hot water over his alleged elitism, couldn't overcome the uncaring-rich-man persona that came from this video, which was seen as a banner that the Democrats could carry across the country, and in conjunction with his missing tax returns, put him in a position where people didn't trust him AND couldn't relate to him, a deadly combination for any candidate, particularly one running against one who was held in such high-esteem by his base.

But subtract this video from the fold, and you have a very different race.  The Democrats don't have the luxury of running against Mitt Romney, and instead have to do more of running for Barack Obama, a candidate who was greeted with vitriol in a variety of corners.  One could argue that while Obama may well have won against Romney without this comment, it would have surely been closer and possibly even resulted in him losing the White House (or at least the popular vote).  A Mitt Romney presidency adds a new name to the 2016 crowd: former President Barack Obama, pulling a Grover Cleveland (I have a theory that in this system where only a few people seem like they can seriously compete for the presidency, the next one-term president who loses reelection will make a serious stab at winning a second term four years later).  Even if Mitt Romney were to lose, he would have a closer election and would have an easier time re-framing the 2016 election, which I'm guessing he would have run for if he had had a closer election.

5. What if...Jeb Bush had never said "probably nothing?"

President George W. Bush (R-TX)

1994 was a Holy Grail year for Republicans across the country.  Every one of them was winning elections, ousting political legends left-and-right, and even seeing the Speaker of the House lose his reelection race in Washington.  In Florida, this meant that beloved Governor Lawton Chiles, seemingly untouchable in the state, was in a ridiculously close race against Jeb Bush, the son of former President George H.W. Bush.  Jeb Bush may well have won amidst the landslide, but flubbed badly on a question on what his election would do for the state's growing minority community, to which Bush replied, "probably nothing."  The Democrats seized on this, and Chiles won reelection by less than 70,000 votes out of 4 million cast.

Get rid of this comment, and Jeb would have joined his brother George that year in ousting an iconic Democratic governor in the South, and as a result may have been the more palatable choice to run for the presidency in 2000.  After all, it's long been assumed that Jeb was the brother with ambition and with the superior intellect in the family.  He didn't win election until 1998, when George had four years on him-add the fact that he was already a swing state incumbent and Jeb may well have been president in 2000, sixteen years before he finally made a stab at the office.

Those are my five biggest "What If's" of the cycle-what about yours?  Share your thoughts in the comments about other elections that strongly impacted this upcoming presidential cycle!