Honorable Mention: It's worth noting that while I don't think either are particularly competitive here, it's still not out-of-the-question that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) could either retire or lose in a primary, opening up a challenge from a moderate Democrat like former Surgeon General Richard Carmona or that Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO) could be vulnerable if Hillary Clinton is competitive in Missouri to a challenge from Secretary of State Jason Kander, who was by far the best candidate the Democrats could have hoped for in the Show-Me State. However at this point it appears these are competitive on paper, but not in reality, so they stay off the top ten.
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| Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) |
The Tarheel State is playing a game of wait-and-see right now, as everyone is wondering what will former U.S. Senator Kay Hagan do. Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) appears likely to run for a third term despite retirement rumors to the contrary last year, and would probably be the frontrunner against any Democrat (despite its swing state nature, North Carolina is still slightly Republican nationally and that should help Burr eek out those crucial final couple of points). However, Hagan ran a pitch-perfect campaign in 2014 and nearly won despite the entire national tide being against her (she would have won and handily had the race taken place in 2012). She's a proven fundraiser and I would imagine that the DSCC is pretty much begging her to run right now. Were she to skip the race I suspect that the Democrats would turn to State Treasurer Janet Cowell, who is a formidable opponent but nowhere near what Hagan would be if she ran. This is also a question of whether Hagan is done with electoral politics (I cannot imagine she'll ever have as strong of an opportunity to re-enter the political fray, particularly with a competitive White House and governor's race also on the ballot). If she does, this race moves up, but until I hear more from her I'm keeping it right at the bottom of the list.
9. Indiana
This race moves onto the list with the announcement that Sen. Dan Coats (R) will retire rather than seek a non-consecutive fourth term. His announcement sets up an all-out war within the Republican caucus, with Reps. Jackie Walorski, Martin Stutzman, Todd Young, Todd Rokita, and Susan Brooks (as well as Coats' Chief of Staff Eric Holcomb) all considering a race here (it's worth noting that some will probably sit out and wait to take on sitting Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly in 2018, but a sitting senator is not the opportunity that an open seat in a presidential year would be, and they all know this). The Democrats have an incredibly thin bench after the 2010 elections, though I would imagine that despite some refusals late Tuesday that former Sen. Evan Bayh will be asked pretty hard by the DSCC to re-consider running considering that he's only 59, has likely seen his chances at ever running for the White House disappear (he was once the Golden Boy of the Democratic Party, but returning to the Senate is probably the best he could do at this point), and most importantly has $10 million still left in his campaign account, giving him an almost insurmountable financial advantage. Were he to refuse we'd see either former Rep. Baron Hill run or perhaps State Superintendent Glenda Ritz, who is the only statewide-elected Democrat other than Sen. Donnelly and is in an ugly public brawl right now with Gov. Mike Pence over her job (and may want to leverage Democratic anger in the state to a higher position). Either way, this race got considerably more competitive this week even if the Republicans maintain an edge.
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| Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) |
The good thing for the Democrats is that they have perhaps their best candidate possible, but the bad news is that that still might not be enough. Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) got what may be the best the Democrats have to offer (former Governor Ted Strickland), but he's still a very well-respected senator that probably fits his moderate state just a teensy bit better. Plus, Strickland's age (he'll be 75 on Election Day) may affect his performance even if he's about as close to an incumbent as a non-incumbent can be (considering his decades of public service). Strickland also needs to dethrone a potential up-and-comer in PG Sittenfeld (a City Councilman, not a mystery novelist), though he should be able to dispatch him.
All this being said, if Hillary Clinton can approach the numbers that Barack Obama did in 2008, taking on the Republican by 5-points or more in the Buckeye State, all bets are off. Vote-splitting is an endangered species in America, and to expect very partisan swing voters to go off-base that much for a man they elected statewide in 2006 and almost did in 2010-that's a stretch. All things being equal I'd bet on Portman, but a wind for the Democrats could turn this seat to Strickland.
7. Colorado
With Sen. Cory Gardner currently occupying the Senate seat that Mark Udall won in 2008, the Democrats recent run of good luck (three Senate elections, three governor's races, and two bids for the White House all going blue) finally ended, and Colorado started to look more like the swing state it is supposed to be. Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) doesn't seem to have the same poor campaigning skills as Mark Udall, though, and will probably benefit from higher Hispanic turnout in the 2016 election (one of the big question marks is will Hillary Clinton be able to duplicate the high turnout of Hispanic voters in 2016 that Barack Obama did in his elections, and that's doubly important when we see who is going to carry the Centennial State). The leading contenders for the seat appear to be, oddly enough, a married couple: Rep. Mike Coffman and his wife Attorney General Cynthia Coffman are at the top of the NRSC's recruitment efforts, though considering that Mrs. Coffman just won her office it appears that Mr. Coffman may be the more likely contender. Mike Coffman represents one of the most liberal seats in the country held by a Republican, so were he to make a stab at the Senate, he would almost assuredly be giving the DCCC one of the thirty seats it's looking at to win the majority.
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| Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) |
Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) has not been the conservative firebrand he was once billed when he was in the House, taking a much quieter approach as Pennsylvania's junior senator, which is a good thing considering that this is a state that Hillary Clinton is likely to do well in next year (Pennsylvania has gone Democratic every year since 1988). The Democrats are obviously not satisfied with former Rep. Joe Sestak, who lost this seat in a nail-biter six years ago and is reportedly not a team player, but there's not a lot of options yet. Several of their top contenders either have shown no interest (Rep. Allyson Schwartz, Montgomery County Chairman Josh Shapiro) or are embroiled in scandal (Attorney General Kathleen Kane). Alleghany County Executive Rich Fitzgerald is frequently mentioned, but Sestak has such a lead right now and is such a ferocious campaigner (he did oust a legend and sitting senator six years ago in Arlen Specter) that I wouldn't bet against him. The DSCC and Pennsylvania Democrats will probably get over their aversion to Sestak pretty fast if he wins the primary, as with 4-5 seats needed to win the majority (depending on who is Vice President), Pennsylvania is too important to not go full throttle, regardless of whether or not someone is seen as a maverick.
5. New Hampshire
Every Democrat worth his or her salt is waiting on the decision of Gov. Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire. While races in Wisconsin, Pennyslvania, and Ohio have started to form and we have a decent idea of whom our candidate will be, New Hampshire is a wait-and-see game for Democrats, as the popular governor will have to decide whether or not she will pursue the Senate or run for re-election. Republicans (and some Democrats) seem to think it will be the former, and have already started to campaign on behalf of sitting Sen. Kelly Ayotte. An early poll in the state showed that Hassan led the incumbent by four-points, and while New Hampshire has shown a weirdly sporadic nature in its elections recently (just ask Carol Shea-Porter, who has won 60% of her House races depending on the waves), they've been pretty damn blue in presidential years, being the only state that went for Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. If Hassan passes, Democrats will try their luck with either former Gov. John Lynch (who seems reluctant to re-enter the political world), Rep. Ann McLane Kuster, or perhaps even Shea-Porter (who seems more likely to once again seek her old seat but may not want to have to acquiesce to the Granite State electorate every two years). But none of them would start out with the positioning that Hassan would, and considering that she's been rumored to want even higher office than governor or senator, the national platform that a Senate seat provides may be too appealing to pass up.
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| Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-FL) |
This one goes way up the list for me for three reasons. The first, and most important, is that it appears that Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) will be forgoing a run for reelection in favor of a play for the White House (or more likely, Number One Observatory Circle). Rubio isn't invincible, but he surely would be the favorite if he had run for reelection, while an open seat election in a year where Florida will be critically important for both parties means that this will be high turnout, helping the Democrats in a way they weren't able to be six years ago. The second is that with Rubio out there is going to be a grand march of Republicans running for the seat, ranging from Reps. Vern Buchanan and Curt Clawson to Lt. Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera to State CFO Jeff Atwater-this could turn bloody and could result in a Tea Party style candidate winning in a state where Republicans cannot afford one. And third, the Democrats seem to have coalesced around their best possible candidate: Rep. Patrick Murphy. While there are still rumblings that someone like Rep. Alan Grayson may run, these seem much adieu about nothing, and Murphy has the moderate (and relatively bland) profile that someone like Sen. Bill Nelson has coasted on for years to win statewide and he's a voracious campaigner. It's worth noting that in an inverse of Mike Coffman, the Democrats may be sacrificing a House seat to win a Senate seat here, as Murphy represents one of the only districts in the country won by Mitt Romney but currently held by a Democrat.
3. Nevada
Nevada is in a weird position right now. On a presidential level, its results are looking less like a swing state and more like simply a light blue state, but thanks to poor performance in Midterms and a nail-biter Senate race in 2012, they still have statewide races that look very competitive. The Democrats appear to be running Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, who is wildly unpopular in his home state but is the sort of fighter that you should never totally bet against. The grand matchup against the state's wildly popular Republican Governor Brian Sandoval and Reid seems not to be happening, as Sandoval is more likely to wait and see if he'll be asked to the Vice Presidential Prom (or to run on his own for the White House in 2020 if Hillary wins), so the Democrats will likely have to contend with either Lt. Governor Mark Hutchison or State Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson. I am on record as saying that, with Sandoval all but out of a Senate race regardless of Reid's stance, the Democrats would be better off if Reid just retired, as he is too much damaged goods and we could go with Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, who is Reid's chosen successor without all of his baggage, but that plan doesn't appear to be happening, so it's very possible the Democrats win the 4-5 seats they need to take the majority but still cannot take the majority because of Harry Reid's stubbornness.
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| Rep. Robin Kelly (D-FL) |
The Land of Lincoln is currently sitting, waiting for the popcorn to start popping in the Democratic Primary. At the moment four Democratic members of the House (Reps. Cheri Bustos, Robin Kelly, Bill Foster, and Tammy Duckworth) are all exploring a Senate bid against Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL). There's a good reason for this: Illinois is the most liberal state in the country currently represented by a Republican, and is Hillary Clinton's home state. The Democrats are sure to win the state on a presidential level, likely by double-digits, which means that Kirk will need an insanely high number of crossover votes which simply won't be possible with a decent Democratic challenger. With Attorney General Lisa Madigan likely to clear the field for the gubernatorial election in 2018 and Sen. Dick Durbin seemingly staying in the Senate forever, this is probably the best shot any of these ambitious pols have to win a promotion for a while, and they know it. Expect a pretty bloody primary, which will only help Kirk, but for the Democrat to start out with an advantage in the general. My personal preference would be Kelly, whose seat isn't a risk to go red (like Bustos's) and hasn't recently lost a high-profile race just to come back and win (like Foster and Duckworth, the latter of whom is clearly the DSCC's favorite).
1. Wisconsin
It's become a running joke at this point, but it appears that Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) has not been told that he is a Republican in a blue state, because his staunch conservative voting record clearly doesn't imply he is aware of this fact. Johnson appears to be getting a rematch from former Sen. Russ Feingold (D) who can clear the field and has passed on potentially easier races (the 2012 Senate race, the 2014 governor's race) probably with a bit of bitterness against Johnson, so expect this race to get nasty and quick. The big question for Democrats is how will Feingold, most famous for his crusades for campaign finance reform, operate in a post-Citizens United world. Either way, it may not matter-this is a state that Hillary Clinton will probably start as a frontrunner in (with or without Scott Walker) and that may be enough for Feingold to get across the finish line similar to Tammy Baldwin in 2016. It's worth noting that with Feingold, Hagan, and Bayh all potentially running in 2016 the Democrats may well have a lot of very familiar-looking freshmen in 2017.
And there you have it-my look at next year's Senate elections. What are your thoughts? How would you change the order and what race are you most looking forward to? Share in the comments!
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