2014 Oscar Predictions

Well, we're just a few hours away from the big ceremony, so at this point, after months of hemming, analyzing, and hawing, it's time to put my money where my mouth is and just predict!  Let's jump in at the top prize:

Picture: I'm aware that the collective internet has moved to Birdman as their prediction, but I just cannot help but shake the fact that Boyhood has such a special narrative that could lead into its winning.  My head is saying Birdman, my heart is saying Boyhood, and I'm going to do something rare (and oftentimes foolish) with Oscar predictions and go with my heart.  Boyhood takes the most competitive Best Picture race in twelve years.

Director: I know that with the DGA I should be going with Inarritu and Birdman, but Boyhood's Richard Linklater has to be considered a slight favorite if only for the ambition of his project (he's going to have to win somewhere, after all).  I'll stick with Linklater here, as I think if there's going to be a split Birdman/Linklater seems the most logical.

Actor: The collective internet has been running around comparing Adrian Brody to Bradley Cooper with utter abandon, but I think that Cooper's just going to have to sit this one out (surprises like that don't happen every day).  It's weird that Keaton can't seem to catch the headwinds that Birdman have been providing at most of the guild awards, but he can't so I'm going to side with Eddie Remayne for the victory.

Actress: Okay, we're now in non-competitive races (side note: don't you HATE how the print issue of Entertainment Weekly tries to make every race competitive when it clearly isn't?).  Either way, Julianne Moore will finally take an Oscar after five nominations and one of the best-orchestrated campaigns I've seen in years.  It's hard to tell even who is in second place (I could imagine 80-90% of the ballots will bear Ms. Moore's name)-probably Reese or Felicity, but who knows?  Not us, since Juli will win.

Supporting Actor: I'm a bit flummoxed every year when a middling Supporting Actor performance seems to stampede to this win, but JK Simmons is a massive favorite and will trump eternal bridesmaids Mark Ruffalo and Edward Norton.

Supporting Actress: Similarly, Patricia Arquette has ridden the Boyhood wave to victory all season and there's no reason to assume she won't do it again.  Keira Knightley and Emma Stone will just have to wait for a less lock-step season to pick up their trophies.

Original Screenplay: Returning to competitive categories, this appears to be a three-way race between the writer-directors of Birdman, Boyhood, and The Grand Budapest Hotel.  Since I'm predicting Boyhood for the big two, I will skip it here in a spread-your-ballot sort of way and give it to Inarritu over Wes Anderson, since Birdman's going to have to win a few trophies somewhere.

Damien Chazelle, writer of Whiplash

Adapted Screenplay: Nick Davis compared this race to 2009's Adapted Screenplay race, when we all thought Up in the Air would win its sole Oscar here and then it ended up being another one for Precious.  The same thing could happen five years later with The Imitation Game losing its one slam dunk to Whiplash, but I'm not ballsy enough to predict it.  Harvey gets his one Oscar here.

Foreign Language Film: It's hard to tell if the Academy is feeling particularly political this year, in which case a bit of a middle finger to Vladimir Putin through voting for Leviathan may be in order.  However, I think it's going to be the end of Poland's long drought with Ida finally winning the country its first Oscar nomination.  It's also worth noting that occasionally things surprise here, and if there's a surprise look to Argentina's Wild Tales, the lightest of these five films.

Documentary Feature: I've heard criticisms of CtizenFour's formatting, but despite upstart campaigns by Virunga and Last Days of Vietnam (which, if it were to win, would likely be the first time a president's niece ever won an Oscar) its subject matter seems too perfectly-tailored to the past year not to win.  Here's to hoping the victors get political, as that's always fun during the Documentary races.

Documentary Short Subject: Again, it's hard to imagine a film that better encapsulates outrage over the past year than Crisis Hotline, a film about veterans dealing with PTSD and suicide.  If the film seems too-polished (it was made by HBO and feels like something you'd see on TV), they might go with the cancer documentary Joanna, but I am going with Crisis Hotline for my prediction.

Emmanuel Lubezki

Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki is such a strong cinematographer it seems deeply unlikely that anyone will begrudge him back-to-back Oscars, so I see him taking this for Birdman, though the whole digital vs. film argument could result in an upset for Robert Yeoman's The Grand Budapest Hotel (who benefits by being the only nominee made on film).

Film Editing: Without Birdman to contend with, this appears to be a battle between first-time nominees Sandra Adair (Boyhood) and Tom Cross (Whiplash).  One of the great questions of tonight is "what is the strength of Whiplash?" as it could easily end up with four trophies or just one.  My gut is this is one it misses (Adair's twelve-year journey is probably going to impress lay people at the Oscars even if she didn't have that much to edit since they included almost everything that was filmed in the final picture), and Boyhood wins.

Production Design: We now enter the Grand Budapest portion of the evening, as it's difficult to see anything over-coming its sets.  Second place is probably a battle between the fairy tale excess of Into the Woods and the space-work of Interstellar, but neither of them will come close to gold.

Milena Canonero

Costume: Pity poor Anna Shephard, who is the only non-winner nominated in this category and is almost certainly in fifth place for Maleficent (she'll have others, I suppose, as this category likes to repeat).  My money is on three-time winner Milena Canonero (The Grand Budapest Hotel) trumping three-time winner Colleen Atwood (Into the Woods) since Production Design and Costume usually go hand-in-hand.

Original Score: Perhaps the hardest-to-call below-the-line category, I would say that if Alexandre Desplat only had one nomination he'd probably be the victor in a "it's time" sort of way (he's never won despite perpetual nominations), but his work in Imitation Game and Grand Budapest will surely split the vote leaving first-time nominee Johan Johansson (The Theory of Everything) with a trophy.

Original Song: Selma's shot at the actual Best Picture faded weeks ago, but I still think it has enough supporters (and a lack of obvious competitors) to emerge victorious here.  Diane Warren will just have to join Alexandre Desplat, Roger Deakins, and Dan Sudick at the bar to rant about how none of them ever seem to win an Oscar.

Visual Effects: A genuine horse race of a contest here, as Interstellar has both Dawn of the Planet of the Apes and (more quickly) Guardians of the Galaxy staring it down.  I'm predicting Interstellar, but there is clearly a palpable energy surrounding Guardians of the Galaxy and it could win on either of its two nominations (if only because Hollywood, in a lackluster Box Office year, may be grateful for a new franchise and a new movie star in Chris Pratt).

Makeup & Hairstyling: Like above, Guardians of the Galaxy could be a shocker here, but I'm going to guess Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier take the trophy for Grand Budapest (the latter winning his second trophy in three years).

Sound Mixing: Another tight race (this is going to be a really fun night in terms of nail-biters), with American Sniper clearly having momentum (and a boatload of cash), but I cannot help but think that one of the drumming movies (Birdman and Whiplash) will take this, and I'm going to go with Whiplash since I skipped it in two tight races before.

Sally Hawkins

Short Film-Animated: I already regret this prediction, but I'm going to do one of my no-guts-no-glory predictions right now and pick the dramatic The Bigger Picture, which has interesting animation and a more adult story over the bullying drama The Dam Keeper and the Disney-approved Feast.  I am aware that either of the latter two films would be a smarter choice on-paper, but sometimes you have to take a risk.

Animated Feature: With The Lego Movie out of the running (in a move similar to The Adventures of Tintin a few years back where a frontrunner missed and resulted in a weirdly open race), it's hard not to see the writing on the wall with How to Train Your Dragon 2 taking the Globes and dominating the Annies.  Still, it's not outside the realm of possibility that Disney smells an opportunity for an easy trophy and lands Big Hero 6 (it would help with the sequel argument the producers are currently pitching) or that Princess Kaguya (which is getting raves from animators) pulls a Spirited Away and steals away a competitive race for one of the perpetually-losing foreign films.

Short Film-Live Action: The fact that you have two Oscar-approved stars (Sally Hawkins and Jim Broadbent) in The Phone Call makes it impossible not to predict.  Boogaloo or Parvaneh both have a lot going for them in terms of past preference for similarly-minded films, but movie stars are tough to beat, particularly when you're screening at home, so I'm going with The Phone Call.

Sound Editing: Being a Best Picture nominee and the highest-grossing film of the year (or at least it's about to be) means that, even with the controversy, American Sniper has to win somewhere and it's hard to see it not being in Sound Editing in a similar fashion to another recent Eastwood picture, Letters from Iwo Jima.

And there are my predictions-share yours in the comments, and we'll get all into who actually wins tomorrow!