The Fall of Chris Christie

Politics, like most of life, is a situation where hindsight is 20/20.  Looking back on an election or a term in office, you can much more easily prescribe what someone should have done because you know what the defining issue of a future campaign is going to be.  This was the case, for example, with the 2014 Midterms, when it became painfully obvious that Harry Reid trying to prevent presidential vetoes (rather than making President Obama play the bad guy) likely cost people like Kay Hagan and Mary Landrieu from making votes on amendments that could have saved their jobs.  You look at the 2000 presidential election, and it becomes painfully obvious that Al Gore should have picked Bob Graham and just stuck him in Florida during the campaign rather than choose Joe Lieberman.  And the less said about the impetuousness involved with Sarah Palin, the better.

The reason I bring this up is the continued fall of Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, and how Christie clearly made a mistake three years ago by not jumping into a presidential field that was BEGGING him to run.  Three years into a term as a wildly popular governor, the 49-year-old Republican thought he had all the time in the world left-why not coast to an easy reelection, and use my status as a political celebrity and Republican who can win in a blue state to take an easy lap in 2016?  After all, it'll be simpler to take on an open seat than an incumbent, and it's not like any of the motley crew of GOP candidates in 2012 was going to actually beat Obama.

And up until about a year ago, this seemed smart.  He was right-Mitt Romney lost.  And he was right-he cruised to reelection in an epic victory over a random state senator.  But since his victory in November of 2013, Chris Christie has endured an epic fall from grace, one that started with the Fort Lee lane closure scandal, and has continued with his approval rating plummeting.  His approval ratings now are lower than his disapproval ratings (a rare sight for a governor, and one that poses significant challenges for his ability to lead).  His golden boy status has vanished-he'd have supreme difficulty winning reelection to his current office, much less translating his home state advantage into a victory for the White House.  More and more this presidential cycle, it appears that Chris Christie is going to be the Evan Bayh of the Republican field-someone who has made so much sense for so long, but clearly missed his chance by running four years too late.

This isn't what I would have expected, to be honest.  Two years ago, if you'd have asked me which Republican I was most scared of going up against Hillary Clinton, it would have been Christie.  He was wildly popular with swing voters, did well in national match-ups, and had an ability on the stump that almost no one else did.  He was brash and abrasive, but he was also very genuine.  His comical love of the Cowboys (despite them not being too popular in the Garden State) seemed to put aside silly political sports rivalries, and he is not a politician who minces words, which is something that people are clamoring for, regardless of what is actually being said.

But Bridgegate shattered that house of cards into a thousand pieces.  The biggest thing going for Chris Christie, at the end of the day, was his electability.  He's not the most experienced in Washington (that would be someone like Rob Portman or Paul Ryan), he's not the most conservative (Ted Cruz or Rand Paul, anyone?), and he's not even from the most important swing state (Jeb Bush and John Kasich both can claim that trump card).  No, what Christie had was an ability to win over independents, that notoriously flighty and small group of voters which decides who runs our country every four years.  With Bridgegate, even if he was exonerated, political reality set in; there's nothing worse than a lie that seems like the truth, and with Christie, a New Jersey politician who has to carry the baggage that comes with that occupation regardless of his actions, a scandal about political retribution was about as damaging as it gets.  Christie didn't react well to it, either.  All of those things that Republicans loathed about the IRS scandal and the Obamacare.gov technical issues-the president supposedly "passing the buck"-they came crashing down on Christie as he tried to prove that it was his subordinates, not he himself, who was responsible.

After that, the Teflon evaporated.  The media was less enamored and far more critical of his proposals and comments.  Things like his refusal of showing his credit card receipts also exhibit a tone deafness (anyone remember those tax returns of Mitt Romney's) that Christie perhaps would have faltered in 2012, but the reality is that at this point he's done.  For all of the bluster written about Christopher James Christie and his supposed path to be our 45th president, they're all for naught.  Our next president may be named Hillary or Jeb or Rand or even Mitt, but he's not going to be named Chris.