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| Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) |
It's worth noting, of course, that Romney running or at least floating the idea is not news because he's run for president before. Bob Dole, Ronald Reagan, Al Gore, and Joe Biden, among many others, all ran for the White House on more than one occasion. It is slightly more unusual for Romney to do it after securing the nomination but losing the general, but it's not unprecedented-people like Gerald Ford and John Kerry at least floated the idea four years later that they might run, even if they ultimately didn't take the plunge, and of course the likes of Grover Cleveland, William Jennings Bryan, Thomas Dewey, Adlai Stevenson, and Richard Nixon all held their party's nomination after losing (with admittedly mixed results).
And it's also worth noting that Romney does extremely well nationally, particularly against Hillary (he's the only Republican I have seen who can actually beat her in head-to-head matchups, even if it's only in a few polls and by 1-2 points). I can see why he specifically is seeing this, his lifelong dream, and thinking, "maybe..." a bit like an Olympian who has a silver and a bronze coming out of retirement for one more shot at the gold. That being said, here's a list of the people who I think are helped by and hurt by Gov. Romney's entrance into the race.
The Winners
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| Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) |
Rand Paul has to be absolutely giddy about the entry of Mitt Romney into the race. The Kentucky senator has sort of put himself into a corner that no one can really paint himself out of-he's the libertarian, the voice of a new generation of Republicans who care more about fiscal concerns than social issues, but has to take out both the Bible Belt and the moneyed establishment. The more major candidates in the race splintering the vote, the better for Paul. He'll happily take Romney's entry, as it means that Jeb Bush will be fighting with a truly formidable challenger for the establishment perch.
Sec. Hillary Rodham Clinton
The only person other than Paul who could be more excited about this is Hillary. A lot of her biggest obstacles (age, being of "the past," her insane wealth) all disappear when you have someone who has been running for president just as long as her, is just as well known, is even richer, and is the same age. Clinton dreams about Romney being her opponent, because not only does she not have to worry about these issues, she has a clear blueprint from 2012 of exactly how to beat him, as his negatives aren't going to go away as quickly as the Romney camp would like.
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| Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) |
Ted Cruz's presidential bid is largely predicated on the Tea Party getting revived, and if all of the conversation seems to be between two establishment Republicans who famously try to have it both ways on issues, that's Cruz's time to shine. The same can be said for someone like Mike Huckabee, who will see Romney and Bush (both of whom don't care too much to talk about social issues lately) and will make sure topics like gay marriage, school prayer, and abortion are brought up as often as possible.
Sen. Rob Portman
Rob Portman made a calculated bet earlier in the year by not running for the White House, and it may just be about to pay off. While he has to play a delicate balancing act of whom to support (Romney or Bush), he was second place to Paul Ryan on the veep list in 2012 and represents a state that Mitt Romney is desperate to win. He's now probably moved to the top of the vice presidential lists of two leading Republican nominees in a year that, at least on paper, favors the GOP.
Vice President Joe Biden
There's not a lot of candidates that make Joe Biden look good, to be honest. While the Vice President has a lot of deficits, one of the ones that he can probably still run upon is President Obama's economic turnaround, something that Mitt Romney frequently and categorically stated would never happen. While running against Bush, Paul, Cruz, and the like will leave him vulnerable on other attacks, with Romney he has a record (and, again, a set of states) that could actually keep him in a viable position to finally achieve his dream of being president.
The Losers
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| Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) |
This is something that Jeb Bush didn't need. Honestly, it's hard to imagine the likes of Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich going head-to-head with Jeb Bush and winning-the Bush brand is far too powerful in the Republican Party, particularly as far as President George H.W. Bush is still alive, for him to lose the establishment wing of the party. However, Mitt Romney is his own form of a titan, and would bring with him a national network and a series of ardent supporters who hate the fact that he lost in 2012. Romney is the only Republican in America who could challenge Bush for establishment support, something he assumed until this past week was a given in the primary.
Rep. Paul Ryan
Yes, he claims he doesn't want to run for president, but Paul Ryan does-he just doesn't feel he needs to do so right now. He can wait 8-12 years if he wants, provided that he doesn't become yesterday's news in the process. This entry is a way that he could become yesterday's news; if Romney wins the nomination, he can't pick Ryan as his running mate again, as it would signify "more of the same," which is poison in American politics. Therefore, Ryan will either be "one of the guys who lost with Romney" or "the losing VP candidate" if Romney were to win. Neither of those is particularly attractive, which means that Ryan will have to up his ante in Washington by gaining a higher office than 'failed number two,' and his only option is Speaker (a position that Kevin McCarthy clearly covets).
Basically any B-Level Republican Candidate
Mike Huckabee and Ted Cruz have sort of staked out their niche, and it'll be hard to move them. The rest of the field was supposed to be an open field for people like Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, and Bobby Jindal. If you have three major players like Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and Rand Paul all staking out the race, it'll be extremely difficult for the rest of them to get any sort of oxygen in the race. And with the exception of Rubio, none of these men will be relevant in eight years (or barely in four) if they try to wait things out.
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| Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) |
People like Kelly Ayotte, Ron Johnson, Mark Kirk, and Pat Toomey all have to be looking at a Romney candidacy with a lot of nerves, especially after the 2014 Midterms, which saw a near evaporation of coattails. They will need to either have the Republican win their states or at least have a Republican who can do better than Mitt Romney did in 2012, and history frequently repeats itself in politics. If Hillary has the same sorts of margins in 2016 that Obama did in 2012, these senators will likely lose their jobs, and there's no surer way of that happening than nominating the guy who lost in 2012.
Mitt Romney Himself
Honestly, I don't know what he's thinking. Yes, his image has been rehabilitated a bit, but that's only because he's not a candidate (it's also the only reason he's doing so well nationally). The reality is that this man has twice been rejected by the American populace, and is in a situation where the country is just not that into him. Plus, while his predictions on foreign policy had some accuracy, his economic predictions were total bunk, and quite frankly someone like Jeb Bush is going to take him down on foreign policy if that's where the election is headed. This seems to be a case of really bad advice, which doesn't bode well for Romney that things have changed.
Those are my thoughts on who wins and loses with Gov. Romney's entrance into the race-how about yours? Who do you think benefits the most or loses out the most? Do you think he'll actually run? Share your thoughts in the comments!
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