1. Boyhood
2. The Imitation Game
3. Birdman
4. The Theory of Everything
5. The Grand Budapest Hotel
6. Selma
7. American Sniper
8. Nightcrawler
9. Gone Girl
Alt: Whiplash
The Lowdown: The first six films on this list seem to be perfectly positioned at this point. Awards stamina, Globes love, critical adoration-they've got it all. It's difficult to see the race pulling together without them. The final three are in a sweet spot where I'm not sure they'll land, but this race has been nine-wide for an eternity now, so my guess is that they keep that number. Nightcrawler and American Sniper have done very well at critics awards and are clearly popular screeners, and Gone Girl was such a big hit in a field that kind of needs one, so I think the producers' branch pushes it over. Whiplash is my alternate over Unbroken, Foxcatcher, and Into the Woods principally because the film has had stronger momentum throughout the season without it either waning (Foxcatcher) or never really starting (the other two).
1. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
3. Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
4. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. Ava DuVernay, Selma
Alt: Clint Eastwood, American Sniper
The Lowdown: With the DGA nominations now in, it appears that Ava DuVernay's shot at becoming the first African-American woman to be nominated for Best Director is in the hands of Dirty Harry. Linklater, Inarritu, and Tyldum all stuck their flags in the ground early (remember this in the future people-it's not poison to release in August or early autumn), and Wes Anderson has had nothing but press the entire season. I'm guessing Ava if only because when the Academy was actually voting it seemed as if Selma was sky high, though I wouldn't be at all surprised if Clint, or even a newcomer like Dan Gilroy (Nightcrawler) or Damian Chazelle (Whiplash) made the cut.
1. Michael Keaton, Birdman
2. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
5. David Oyelowo, Selma
Alt: Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
The Lowdown: American Sniper and Selma are arguably the two biggest wild cards at this point with the Oscars. Both films have severely under-performed at televised awards shows, and Selma in particular has gotten bad press for that. If either film does particularly well with Oscar, that could land their leads in what is a very competitive set of final two slots. However, if support falters for either film, Steve Carell and Jake Gyllenhaal will probably pick up the pieces. There's also the outside shot that support for The Grand Budapest Hotel hasn't peaked yet, in which case I wouldn't totally discard Ralph Fiennes pulling a Christian Bale and taking one of those two slots. For now, though, my guesses are Gyllenhaal and Oyelowo.
1. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
3. Reese Witherspoon, Wild
4. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
5. Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Alt: Amy Adams, Big Eyes
The Lowdown: This is a six-woman race with five slots. Simple as that, and honestly anyone except Moore or Jones could get cut. Witherspoon's film has been one of the great enigmas of the season (terrific reviews, comeback star, but cannot get a nomination outside this category to save her life), but she's been working it hard for a second nomination and I think she makes it. My Gone Girl Best Picture citation isn't worth much without its star turn lead, so I suspect Pike stays though she could be the shocker here if Gone Girl isn't AMPAS's cup-of-tea (she hasn't been campaigning often and isn't particularly warm in interviews in the way that Aniston and Witherspoon have kind of perfected). Aniston has a film no one has seen and a spotty filmography, but she makes up for that by clearly wanting this the most and by being a major celebrity in a year that kind of needs them (and one who has never been nominated before). So I'm cutting Amy Adams despite her BAFTA nod and Globe win, as her role is a bit mundane by her track record, though she's an Academy favorite so don't be stunned if she beats out Aniston, Pike, or even Witherspoon (the announcement's alphabetical, so you'll know pretty quickly if Adams has bumped anyone).
1. JK Simmons, Whiplash
2. Edward Norton, Birdman
3. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
4. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
5. Robert Duvall, The Judge
Alt: Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
The Lowdown: I honestly don't know what to do with Carell. That unprompted BAFTA nomination in supporting makes me wonder if he could in fact make it here considering this category has so few contenders and Best Actor has so many (in hindsight, they probably could have tried for both he and Ruffalo). Were all of his mentions in one field, I suspect he'd make it, but even the smallest of vote-splits in Best Actor could result in him missing. I'm putting him here mostly because if a bunch of people had the same idea as BAFTA, this could be the stunner of the morning. Meanwhile, Tom Wilkinson is still theoretically possible if Selma does extremely well, though I am not betting on it (particularly considering the LBJ controversy). As a result, I'm going with the same lineup from the Globes and the SAG Awards repeating with AMPAS.
1. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
2. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
3. Emma Stone, Birdman
4. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
5. Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
Alt: Naomi Watts, St. Vincent
The Lowdown: Stone, Knightley, and Arquette are all mortal locks, with the last one seeming increasingly likely to take the actual trophy. However, five women seem to be fighting it out for the final two slots. Meryl Streep is usually a good bet in a competitive field, though not always (see 2002's Best Actress and 2004's Best Supporting Actress for when she has recently missed); however, there are people who just default to Streep on their ballots, and I think enough of them to keep her around for such a showy role (she's going to miss in a big way sometime soon though-you can sort of feel it). Rene Russo (Nightcrawler), Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer), Naomi Watts (St. Vincent), and Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year) are in a battle royale for the final slot. Swinton is probably the most "due," but is hampered by a Sci-Fi film. Watts is stronger than you'd expect considering Birdman is also helping her out, but Harvey didn't catch this film's strength early enough and she'll probably just miss. Chastain is the obvious choice and probably should be my alternate, but she's both due to have a close-but-no-cigar and her film, like so many this year, was hard to find. Therefore I'm going with Rene Russo, who is in a surging Best Picture contender and has the added benefit of staging a major comeback this year. There are a lot of older members of the Academy who have worked with her and would like to give her this recognition.
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Nightcrawler
5. Selma
Alt: Mr. Turner
The Lowdown: If you're trying to find a way to gage Selma's strength early on, it'll be here. This category is ridiculously competitive with Foxcatcher and A Most Violent Year also in the running, so Selma could be an easy cut (this would be devastating for its eventual positioning in the Best Picture race, as it's very difficult to win without a writing nomination). If it goes, though, I want to say that the writers' branch devotion to Mike Leigh might keep Mr. Turner in the conversation even if it keeps missing everywhere else. The Top 4 seem pretty well set.
1. The Imitation Game
2. The Theory of Everything
3. Gone Girl
4. Whiplash
5. American Sniper
Alt: Inherent Vice
The Lowdown: With Whiplash's questionable move over to this category (every year the writing branch resembles the music branch more and more in terms of their randomness toward nominations). it seems like this is locked-right in. American Sniper could turn off the Academy, but I doubt it will be enough to cost it a nomination over a Paul Thomas Anderson film (Inherent Vice) no one seems to like and a Coen Brothers script (Unbroken) no one knows is by the Coen Brothers. It's been said a few times, but Adapted is weirdly weaker in terms of the Best Picture race than in past years, and as someone who loves an original story brought to screen, I'm fine with this.
1. The Lego Movie
2. How to Train Your Dragon 2
3. Big Hero 6
4. The Boxtrolls
5. Song of the Sea
Alt: The Book of Life
The Lowdown: The biggest question here (for now) is what happens in the fifth slot. Despite some early worries that Big Hero 6 or The Boxtrolls might flounder, both films have solidified their run so we have a threeway race for fifth between the English-language The Book of Life and two films from GKids (Song of the Sea and The Tale of Princess Kaguya). This category is remarkably friendly to GKids and independent ventures, so I'm going to guess that Song of the Sea, which did very well at the Annie Awards, manages to upend the other two but any one of these three would make sense. As for the winner-How to Train Your Dragon 2's victory Sunday night made me want to throw things, so I'm hoping The Lego Movie figures out a way to make everything awesome again.
1. Ida (Poland)
2. Timbuktu (Mauritania)
3. Wild Tales (Argentina)
4. Tangerines (Estonia)
5. Leviathan (Russia)
Alt: Force Majeure (Sweden)
The Lowdown: I think the first three are as locked in as this category gets and Tangerines is the sort of film that resonates in this category, particularly when you have an obvious candidate to win. The final slot, though, is between an art house hit (Force Majeure) and a major Russian motion picture in Leviathan. My gut says that in a year where AMPAS is going to want to get political they'll go with the one country that has actually been in the news for being culturally-repressed, so Russia takes it over Sweden. The winner could be interesting if Leviathan stays in as they may want to send a more fully-felt message against oppression and that may be their best bet at doing so.
1. CITIZENFOUR
2. The Overnighters
3. Life Itself
4. Last Days of Vietnam
5. Virunga
Alt: Keep On Keepin' On
The Lowdown: I have been really lacking in my documentary-viewing in 2014 (though I admittedly catch up on this a little bit more in the spring when the pressure on the OVP starts to subside...or at least that's what I keep telling myself). That being said, there's a number of really interesting-looking documentaries on this list, and I suspect that CITIZENFOUR (about Edward Snowden) may be too big of a deal to pass up even if critics were more on the side of The Overnighters or Last Days of Vietnam. Virunga (about the struggles for resources in the Congo) has sentiment and global relevancy on its side, which makes me think they'll like it better than the jazz prodigy doc Keep On Keepin' On. Life Itself has the least weighty subject, but Roger Ebert was much-beloved in film circles and this documentary is so well-regarded that I am keeping it in for Thursday.
1. Birdman
2. Mr. Turner
3. Unbroken
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. The Theory of Everything
Alt: The Imitation Game
The Lowdown: I'm leaning heavily toward the Best Picture field here, and sticking to my guns that the Cinematography branch will like the ridiculous gold hue of The Theory of Everything better than the work Robert Elswit does with Nightcrawler or Hoyte van Hoytema does with Interstellar. The ASC nominations for The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Imitation Game cannot be ignored, though with the latter that feels pretty generic for a group that generally puts some solid care into their nominations. It's also very popular for black-and-white films to do well with this branch, so if Ida is going to score a nomination anywhere other than Foreign Film, this will be the place.
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Into the Woods
3. The Imitation Game
4. Maleficent
5. Mr. Turner
Alt: Belle
The Lowdown: The five I predicted truly feel like "the five" as they are a nice balance of Best Picture, period drama, and former nominees, and so without proof that, say, Ruth Carter can make it with Selma or Mark Bridges has what it takes with Inherent Vice, I'm going completely out-of-left-field for the alternate. Belle is a period drama, a film that was noticed, and is the sort of film that the costume branch (which has wonderfully long memories and doesn't give a damn about Box Office) might recall from earlier in the year where others will have forgotten.
1. The Imitation Game
2. Boyhood
3. Birdman
4. Whiplash
5. The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alt: Nightcrawler
The Lowdown: I'm going all-in on the Best Picture lineup. I'm figuring the three Best Picture frontrunners all make it, as does The Grand Budapest Hotel which is showing up at every guild known to man. Whiplash has that sort of showy aspect to it (the constant cuts, the use of sound in conjunction with the editing) that resonates well here, so I'm keeping it as a prediction despite a surging Nightcrawler. It's also worth noting that if American Sniper, The Theory of Everything, or Selma are doing really well on Oscar nomination morning that they could easily slip in here-lest we forget with Silver Linings Playbook a few years ago, if your film has heat, it gets in with Editing.
1. Guardians of the Galaxy
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. The Theory of Everything
Alt: Foxcatcher
The Lowdown: This is a five-film race with three slots. Guardians of the Galaxy was a huge undertaking and a massive hit, and it's going to need credit somewhere other than Visual Effects, so count on this nomination. The Grand Budapest Hotel is showing up everywhere, so I'm keeping with that theory, as well my Theory of Everything. That leaves Foxcatcher and Maleficent in the cold, which doesn't feel right (both are showy and all about altering the faces of well-known movie stars, which are popular stand-bys here), but I just can't quite see them making it. Then again, the Makeup branch is easily the most eclectic branch of the Academy, so even something like Noah or The Amazing Spider-Man 2 isn't out of the question.
1. The Theory of Everything
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. The Imitation Game
4. Interstellar
5. The Judge
Alt: Gone Girl
The Lowdown: This branch usually only welcomes one newcomer a year, and that clearly is Golden Globe winner Johann Johannsson for The Theory of Everything (he may well win). Some of you may wonder why The Judge is on this list after me going so Best Picture heavy, but Thomas Newman is one of the most popular composers in the Academy, and it's a movie with a prominent score, so I wouldn't doubt it. Don't put it past the branch to reach toward another past nominee, though, like Marco Beltrami (The Homesman), James Newton Howard (Maleficent or Nightcrawler), or even last year's winner Steven Price for Fury.
1. "Glory," from Selma
2. "Lost Stars," from Begin Again
3. "Everything is Awesome," from The Lego Movie
4. "Yellow Flicker Beat," from The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1
5. "I'm Not Gonna Miss You," from Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
Alt: "Big Eyes," from Big Eyes
The Lowdown: That Globe win could mean this is the place where Selma is going to take its (sole?) Oscar, so count on a nomination. I know that they both missed with HFPA, but Begin Again and The Lego Movie got such traction out of these songs that I think it'd be foolish to discount either movie. I'm picking Lorde and Glen Campbell for the final two because the former is really huge right now and generally recognized as a prodigious songwriter and the latter because it's his last song and there's a lot of sentiment behind it. As we remember from last year though with "Alone Yet Not Alone," this branch can occasionally go out on a limb with its crazy, so don't totally discount something bizarre happening.
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Into the Woods
3. The Imitation Game
4. Maleficent
5. Mr. Turner
Alt: Big Eyes
The Lowdown: As I've mentioned above, Mr. Turner is one of the films whose Oscar chances I can't quite get a handle on. In a normal year it'd be an easy get here with its period accuracy and multiple setting, but I'm not quite convinced. Big Eyes surprised with BAFTA (which snubbed both Maleficent and Into the Woods), and so it could also be the artist biopic film of the year for Production Design (plus Burton films do REALLY well here, and at the Oscars in general), though Mr. Turner is more prestigious so I'm sticking with it (it was really a coin toss decision).
1. American Sniper
2. Birdman
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
4. Transformers: Age of Extinction
5. Into the Woods
Alt: Whiplash
The Lowdown: Interstellar got ripped apart by sound mixers in their reviews, so I think it's still out here (though the ACS nominated it, so who knows). Whiplash and Into the Woods both have the musical element to their film, which plays so well in this category, but I'm going to go with the singing over the drumming for my final slot. I am skipping The Hobbit because it feels like there's a bit of a malaise on the film, though it's not out of the question that it scores yet another citation in Sound. I'm keeping Transformers because those films always seem to land in the sound categories, regardless of their Rotten Tomatoes scores.
1. American Sniper
2. Guardians of the Galaxy
3. Interstellar
4. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
5. Transformers: Age of Extinction
Alt: Godzilla
The Lowdown: With no major Best Picture contenders outside of American Sniper competing here, I'm going heavily into the effects films. All of those battle sequences in The Hobbit surely helped with its chances here, and there's usually a solid amount of overlap between Mixing and Editing so Guardians and Transformers both stay in the hunt. I am including Interstellar more because it's hard to imagine it only gaining in Visual Effects and Score (it was too big of a deal not to land elsewhere), but maybe The Dark Knight Rises shut-out is indicative of an apathy toward Christopher Nolan at the Oscars? If so, Godzilla or even Fury could come in its place.
1. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
2. Interstellar
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
4. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
5. Maleficent
Alt: X-Men: Days of Future Past
The Lowdown: Apparently The Hobbit got a lukewarm reception during the bakeoff screenings (when the branch members view the clip reels of the films), which makes me move it to fourth place (though not quite to sixth yet, as no LOTR film has ever missed here). I had Godzilla, but they did really poorly at the Visual Effects Society Awards (not one nomination), and I'm starting to get a Pacific Rim vibe there (which also seemed a sure thing before it eventually missed). Therefore, I'm going with Maleficent, which I've had on this list as a stealth nominee all season, though X-Men: Days of Future Past has been gaining momentum for this category and could be the stunner of Oscar nominations morning.
And there you have it folks-my predictions for the Oscars! Share your thoughts, predictions, and hopes in the comments, and tune in on Thursday for the big reveal!
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