The biggest surprise in any category this morning was surely the surprise nomination for Naomi Watts in the Best Supporting Actress category for the comedy St. Vincent. Watts was a key player in the Best Picture frontrunner Birdman, but was a total shocker for this film, and quite frankly the only place anyone expected to see her name was in the cast nomination for Birdman (which she also got). While I doubt that this means she's getting a third Oscar nomination this year (the film is small, she's splitting her vote with Birdman, and the SAG Awards sometimes do kooky things like this-remember Cloris Leachman for Spanglish?), this may indicate stronger support for St. Vincent than expected. While it's widely believed that Bill Murray would score a Globe nomination tomorrow, this could mean the film could score a Best Picture or Actress nomination (which would be Melissa McCarthy's first nomination with the HFPA, if you can believe it), and perhaps even a writing nomination somewhere. It's worth noting that this is one of Harvey Weinstein's movies, so if there's momentum he'll take advantage of it.
2. Get On Up gets on up into the Stunt Category
Close behind Naomi's nomination in terms of crazy and unexpected was Get On Up in the Best Stunt category. This ranks right up there with All is Lost in terms of this category, principally because Chadwick Boseman, the star of the film, did his splits and own dancing, so where precisely were the stunts? It likely won't win, but it's still an unusual overall nomination.
There's no question this morning that Jake Gyllenhaal had a marvelous morning. A nomination was hardly certain for his terrific work in Nightcrawler, and this citation will keep him in the conversation for the rest of awards season. However, you have to wonder if he may have just put himself in sixth, but not the more vital fifth. That's because the missing "frontrunner" is not presumed fifth place contender Steve Carell (for Foxcatcher), but David Oyelowo for Selma, which didn't get a strong push with the SAG Awards but is expected to do considerably better with AMPAS. Carell got the same sort of push that Gyllenhaal did this morning, which may keep Jake just at bay, even though he's clearly a stronger part of the conversation after this morning.
4. Three Men Enter, Two Men Leave in Best Supporting Actor
It's long been assumed that Ethan Hawke, Edward Norton, and JK Simmons would be getting three of the nominations in Best Supporting Actor. This morning we saw two of their potential rivals make major stakes in the race: Robert Duvall in The Judge (review to come later this week) and Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher. Both men were sort of on the sidelines in terms of nominations waiting to be called in, but no longer. This race is begging for contenders, and when that happens for this category specifically, it usually means a lockstep situation so if Duvall or Ruffalo nab a nomination at the Globes tomorrow, expect them to also be at the Dolby. In fact, the only other man I see as being a real threat for AMPAS is Selma's Tom Wilkinson, who is an Oscar favorite and could gain if that movie continues to grow in buzz. That essentially leaves three men fighting over two slots-which one do you think will be the discarded?
We talked about this a bit earlier this year, but Jennifer Aniston's little engine that could push for a nomination (she's been talking to everyone about this film and trying to land a Top 5 slot) had a HUGE win this morning, getting the fifth slot in what is looking like a race where there's only one opening (Reese Witherspoon, Felicity Jones, Rosamund Pike, and Julianne Moore all seem pretty locked into place). Aniston's personal popularity and the "I can't believe she could do it" aspects of the work could be the key to her becoming the most surprising Oscar nominee since Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side (and lest we think it ends there, let's not forget what happened to Sandy when that happened...).
6. The Imitation Game is Still in This Thing
Over the past few weeks Oscar pundits have been cutting the fat a bit, proclaiming Birdman, Selma, and Boyhood the frontrunners for the Best Picture race over this biopic, but Harvey managed to land his contender in the field just in time, scoring three nominations, including one for the Best Cast category (which frequently serves a proxy for Best Picture). This should help it if it does equally well with the Globes to stay afloat amidst surging competitors.
Birdman has become basically unstoppable this year in terms of the critics, the SAG Awards, and likely the Oscars. It has to win something, and something big. With JK Simmons certain to win supporting, the film being a bit "out there" for Best Picture, and Emma Stone in a position where she's not quite important enough to the narrative to actually win the trophy (which is looking more and more likely to go to Patricia Arquette), that leaves Keaton to carry the banner. It helps that he's absolutely certain to win the Globe, and he's facing off against two actors with similar profiles (Eddie Redmayne and Benedict Cumberbatch: young, British, and playing real life men in period films). This appears to be nearly as certain as Simmons right now.
8. So, Where Are We at with Best Supporting Actress?
Naomi Watts name is now, of course, a part of the conversation even if she doesn't actually make it to the Dolby, but where does this put us for Supporting Actress? We may be in a position where Meryl Streep, Keira Knightley, Emma Stone, and Patricia Arquette, long assumed to be the four frontrunners, are in fact living up to the hype, but there's still one more slot. Watts will now mount a campaign, I'd imagine, but you also have Laura Dern, Jessica Chastain, and Carmen Ejogo all making serious plays for it (Dern and Chastain, in particular, have been hitting the pavement something ferocious). This all means...
Certain people can rest easy tomorrow. The likes of Robert Duvall, Jennifer Aniston, Mark Ruffalo, and Emma Stone can rest easy tomorrow knowing that if they score a nomination, it's just gravy but they're still in the race for the Oscars. However, a few other people should be sweating nervously. Laura Dern, Hilary Swank, Marion Cotillard, and everyone involved with Selma, American Sniper, and Unbroken had better be hoping for a big showing tomorrow, or they will be in a severely weakened position for the remainder of the year.
10. Did the Best Picture Field Just Expand?
One of the biggest conversation pieces this year is if we will finally have less than nine nominations in the "in flux" Best Picture race. Since this voting rule began, all of the Best Picture fields have had nine films, but many thought that this year, with so few movies gaining traction, that it might end up being less (perhaps only the frontrunners: Selma, The Theory of Everything, The Imitation Game, Boyhood, and Birdman). However, this morning we saw a stronger push for Foxcatcher and The Grand Budapest Hotel, both of which could capitalize on major wins today to land a citation in the Best Picture field (though Budapest's biggest and most important producer, Scott Rudin, is likely pre-occupied considering the PR nightmare he's currently in). Throw in Whiplash, Unbroken, and American Sniper who all may do well tomorrow at the Globes and you may add up to nine just yet.
And those are my thoughts this afternoon about the SAG Award nominations-what are yours? What had you spitting out your morning coffee, and who gained/lost the most? Share your thoughts in the comments!
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