The State of the Senate

Michelle Nunn (D-GA), a candidate in one of the country's closest races

A few weeks ago we went through a little exercise that I thoroughly enjoyed, as it’s a way of sort of tracking what seats were gaining or losing importance.  Two weeks ago, I had nine seats that seemed to matter.  Now, I think the map has expanded a bit and we have ten seats that seem to matter to the Senate math.

Overall, the Republicans have made strides in their continued momentum in the past week that is basically undeniable.  The Democrats continue to be throwing “Hail Mary’s,” spending in states that the Republicans have long been favored in, but it will take nothing short of a miracle for them to hold onto the Senate.

This list, as a reminder, is based on the most important races in the contest to control the Senate, based on competitiveness and their likelihood of being “the pivotal seat.”  Therefore, you won’t see something like Montana, which, while certain to switch hands, is not going to be the closest race to do so.  Without further adieu, here is the list:

1. Iowa

Iowa’s race remains at Number One, though that’s a bad thing for Democrats.  This is a race that pundits are constantly reminding Democrats that wasn’t supposed to be competitive, and there’s no doubt that it clearly has become so.  Rep. Bruce Braley (D) has run a lackluster campaign, but it’s difficult to say that he hasn’t stepped up his game in the past couple of weeks, turning the election slowly but steadily into a referendum on Joni Ernst, which is probably his best chance to win.  If Braley cannot start taking the lead in some polls in the next week, however, this may be a lost cause, and the Democrats cannot possibly win the Senate without him in their majority.

2. Georgia

The Democrats have been begging for some sort of good news in the past couple of weeks, and the Peach State was one of the two places they actually got it.  Michelle Nunn leads in the latest SurveyUSA poll, which runs counter to conventional wisdom (it’s worth noting that SurveyUSA, a very reliable poll traditionally, has been sticking its neck out saying that Democrats are doing better than most national polls) by three-points, but Perdue has seen a clear loss in momentum after comments he made regarding outsourcing became public (he was tied with Nunn in a Landmark poll).  This would be huge news for Democrats, but there’s the sticky fact that Nunn, like Mary Landrieu, has to hit 50% to avoid a runoff, a race that would surely be tougher for her to win.  If she can manage to turnout voters in stronger numbers in Atlanta and maintain her momentum in the rest of the state, there’s a possibility that the Democrat could take the seat and possibly the majority, but she needs to continue to gain in the next three weeks and hope for higher than expected African-American turnout.

3. Kansas

According to Real Clear Politics, this is the closest Senate race in the country (it’s a tie in their rankings, which is close to impossible to achieve).  There is still quite a bit of trouble in determining Greg Orman’s intentions (though it seems difficult to believe that he would caucus with the Republicans, even if they have the majority-I wonder if Mitch McConnell would even let him do it at this point), but Roberts appeared continually petty in his debate against Orman (refusing to give a genuine answer to the classic “say something nice about your opponent” question), and I am starting to wonder if Orman, despite all conventional wisdom to the contrary, could in fact win this thing (though he might not be the key to the Democrats winning the majority like I thought he would be a couple of weeks ago).

Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC)

4. North Carolina

It says something about how much trouble the Democrats are in that they could win the Top 3 races, and still theoretically lose, thanks to the continual decline of Kay Hagan’s standing in the polls.  While Sen. Hagan has led in basically every poll, she’s done it by a miniscule margin, and I think that the NRSC’s ad buy (at nearly $6 million, one of the most expensive of the cycle) could pay off in the long run.  As of today, Hagan would barely win, but hers is one of the few races where it doesn’t appear to be stagnant, and two weeks from now I may be singing a different tune.  Hagan needs to find a way to either make the election tomorrow or stop Tillis’s momentum.  Like Iowa, it’s basically impossible for the Democrats to win the Senate without Hagan emerging victorious.  That being said, for those who still light a candle for the Democrats to keep the majority, winning the Top 4 races and Number 10 on this list is the path of least resistance at this point.

5. Louisiana

Sen. Mary Landrieu continues to be high on this list for a couple of reasons.  First, regardless of what you think might be “beneath the dignity of a senator,” it’s hard to argue she’s running the better campaign to connect with Louisiana voters (keg stands and all).  Second, she gets an extra few weeks onto her campaign that will either be entirely under the glare of the country (if the majority is at stake) or completely out of it (which may actually help her-Landrieu may be the one Democrat that could actually gain from the Republicans winning the majority, since it will turn her race into a battle of personalities, favoring her in colorful Louisiana).  Still, though, she may be the key to the Democrats holding the Senate if she can turn this into a referendum on whether Cassidy, a pretty bland politician by Louisiana standards, is ready to represent the state.

6. Colorado

The biggest drop on this list, Sen. Mark Udall (D) is nearing Pryor/Begich territory in terms of him being “theoretically possible, but likely a lot cause.”  It’s been weeks since he led in a poll, and his campaign has been mocked for overplaying the “War on Women” card.  About the only hope he has that Begich and Pryor don’t have is that this is an Obama-state.  The Democrats do have a base advantage if turnout is high enough, and Democrats have had a lot of luck statewide (Udall could benefit from straight-ticket Hickenlooper voters, and they mailed out ballots to all registered voters this year, likely resulting in an uptick in turnout which should help Udall), but this race on-paper is far less likely to go Democratic than Iowa or North Carolina, two states it is frequently grouped along with.

7. Alaska

I’m putting Alaska just ahead of Arkansas again because of polling irregularities, and because if the Bannock Street project is successful, it will be so in the Last Frontier.  Begich’s campaign has fallen on hard times, and if the polls are remotely correct, he’ll lose to Attorney General Dan Sullivan.  His only hope is getting a number of voters from the state’s rural population that the Bannock Street project is targeting to get out to vote, despite their propensity to skip elections.  This will be interesting to watch, but if Begich cannot close the polls it’s hard to see a GOTV effort making up a 4-point polling deficit.

Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR)

8. Arkansas

Mark Pryor’s state of Arkansas doesn’t have quite the erratic polling history that Begich’s does in Alaska, so his polls, roughly similar to Begich’s in number, are likely to reflect reality.  Again, Pryor could benefit over Rep. Tom Cotton (R) if personal goodwill runs his way.  With longtime incumbents like Pryor, Landrieu, and Udall, there's a theoretical possibility that most of the undecideds break their way, or that the Bannock Street project (which has been huge in this state) could end up helping.  Still, though, Pryor continues to be the most vulnerable incumbent member of Congress in either house, which is an extraordinarily tough place to be in; it would take a miracle for him to hold this seat.

9. South Dakota

The only new entry in this race, South Dakota is more on this list thanks to the emerging chaos that it has brought to the Senate cycle than anything else.  Despite an abysmal campaign and a lackluster series of ads and campaign stops, former Gov. Mike Rounds (R) seems fairly likely to beat Democratic congressional aide Rick Weiland and independent former Sen. Larry Pressler to pick up this Democratic seat, but two polls have shown either Weiland or Pressler within four points of Rounds.  It's pretty clear that if Weiland in particular could pick off enough of the Pressler Democrats without resulting in a similar exodus for Pressler Republicans, he could pull off the mother of all upsets this cycle (it's worth noting that South Dakota is the only state on this list aside from Georgia to have gotten better odds for the Democrat winning than the Republican since our last write-up).  Still, though, without at least one poll showing Weiland in the lead, I am just not ready to buy it.

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)

10. New Hampshire

If you're looking for a race that both parties are fairly confident of, look no further than the Granite State.  Democrats are sure that Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, the first woman to serve in both the Senate and as governor, is on-track to win a second term here with relative ease.  Meanwhile, Republicans are increasingly bullish on former Sen. Scott Brown's chances, and polling in the state has been all over the map (though the average poll numbers continue to favor the Democrat).  It's worth noting that while New Hampshire has become more and more Democratic on a presidential level, it's extraordinarily volatile on a congressional level, frequently watching its House seats switch parties, and Shaheen is the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state since 1974.  Brown is definitely the underdog, but in this environment this is a race that you should at least remember.

I don't really see any chances outside of the Top 10 for a race that will ultimately be "the seat."  Terri Lynn Land has run an abysmal race for the once open Senate seat in Michigan, and Rep. Gary Peters continues his oddly lucky streak to get a promotion and a hold for the Democrats.  Sec. of State Alison Lundergan Grimes sank her campaign without answering the "did you vote for Obama?" question, assuring Mitch McConnell his spot as Republican (likely majority) leader.  And despite claims earlier in the year, states like Minnesota, Virginia, and Oregon never really became factors.  The above ten states are the ten states that will decide the Senate: Democrats need five and Republicans need six in order to take the majority.  What are your guesses as to where they land?