1. How long can we maintain a year without a Best Picture frontrunner?
Last year we had one of the more competitive Oscar races for Best Picture in a while, with Gravity, 12 Years a Slave, and American Hustle all duking it out (don't worry-we'll be getting to the final two OVP write-ups where I say who I think should have won by no later than Thursday). This is rare, though, and inevitably one of the film's big films (likely Unbroken, Interstellar, The Imitation Game, or The Theory of Everything) will take the category by storm. In the meantime, though, we are left to ponder exactly how long it will take for the media and precursors to coronate a victor.
2. Which film without a ton of buzz is going to emerge as a serious threat?
Every year or two there seems to be a film like Million Dollar Baby or Juno that goes from being just a film that was on the docket to being a movie that everyone sees as a serious contender in a ton of categories. This year, I am wondering if Selma, Wild, Inherent Vice, or something completely different might be in a situation where they will look like obvious Best Picture nominees come January rather than outside shots right now.
3. Will it be Benedict Cumberbatch vs. Eddie Redmayne for Best Actor?
Cumberbatch and Redmayne are good friends in real-life, but they will be forced to parade up and down the carpet talking about that friendship come next year, as both are likely to be major players in the Best Actor race. At this point, quite frankly, it's starting to look like one of them is about to become very lucky and Oscar-winning, as Steve Carell, Michael Keaton, and Bradley Cooper are all sort of in a "I'm just getting nominated" holding pattern for now. This could (and probably will change), but if this is the Top 5, my gut says that Eddie or Benedict are going to be looking at an awards duel soon.
Coming out of Toronto, every critic on the planet seemed to be crowing about the brilliance of Julianne Moore in Still Alice, making it seem as if the Oscar was hers for the taking. However, anyone who watches the Oscars knows that Moore is in for an uphill battle; only one other actress has won the top prize in her 50's, and that was Shirley Booth over sixty years ago. Moore will face stiff (and younger) competition from Reese Witherspoon, Felicity Jones, Amy Adams, Hilary Swank, Shailene Woodley, and Rosamund Pike, all of whom will be hoping that history has a way of repeating itself.
5. Precisely what is going on in the Supporting Actor category?
Looking at supporting actor, you have a tale of two narratives. You have a couple of actors who are clearly trying to make it based solely on themselves (JK Simmons, Robert Duvall), while the bulk of the major players (Logan Lerman, Tom Wilkinson, Edward Norton, Josh Brolin, John Goodman, Mark Ruffalo) are seemingly waiting to see if their respective films take off with Oscar, and then they can carry the day as a result. At this point JK Simmons seems to be the frontrunner, and indeed he's the only person I cannot see getting cut, but I'd be stunned if in a land of major characters actors, several of whom (Ruffalo, Norton, Wilkinson) have been on Oscar's shortlist before, at least one couldn't make things a little harder for J. Jonah Jameson.
While there's a case to be made for Patricia Arquette, Emma Stone, and Katherine Waterston (and there's always a case to be made for Meryl), on paper there are no two actresses more ready and raring to go than Keira Knightley (The Theory of Everything) and Jessica Chastain (Interstellar) in the Supporting Actress race. On the surface it seems like Knightley has a slight advantage: Harvey is pushing her picture (always helps), and she's playing a real-life person and has already gotten raves. However, if Interstellar takes off (I have a feeling this is the first Nolan picture that makes a real play toward Best Picture, as Gravity may have shaken off some conventions last year and provided we haven't seen "everything" in the trailers (a fear I have with Nolan pictures), this could be a gigantic and wonderful epic), Chastain's work has gotten best-in-show and she clearly wants this Oscar more than anyone else in the competition (she's been pushing hard to grab it). This will (hopefully) be competitive right up until Oscar night.
7. Is this finally Roger Deakins year?
Roger Deakins has been nominated eleven times during the course of the Oscars, and while he is adored by almost all (he already has a pair of OVP awards, and we've only profiled three of his nominations so far), he has never picked up an Oscar nomination. This year he has one of his best shots in years, with Unbroken being a Best Picture frontrunner and having lots of outdoor and expansive shots to highlight Deakins to voters. Deakins faces stiff competition from Emmanuel Lubezki's Birdman, Van Hoytema's Interstellar, and Dick Pope's Mr. Turner, but expect buzz to continue to build for this master D.P.
While not on-par with the original trilogy's awards run, The Hobbit has still managed to nab six nominations for the combined first two films of the series (spread over five different categories) and Transformers has grabbed seven nods in three categories, and every installment of both series has received at least one nomination. With stronger than usual competition in Sound and Visual Effects, however, can either film continue this streak (particularly considering Transformers had a pretty tepid reception domestically)? Furthermore, especially with The Hobbit-where does it score? With citations in the past two years in Art Direction, Visual Effects, Makeup, and both sound categories (not to mention it's a guaranteed original song in a year that needs them), it could be a pretty big hodgepodge of places where it could get that Oscar-nominated tag from.
9. Can Dawn of the Planet of the Apes stop history from repeating?
Earlier this summer we had one of the few giant critical and commercial hits of the year in Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, a major step in visual effects that built off the previous installment. While I gave the trophy to the film's predecessor, AMPAS sided with Hugo-the question is, will we have the revenge of the apes this year? Competition is tight from Interstellar, as well as the aforementioned Transformers and Hobbit-which film will end up at the top of the heap?
10. Seven films, five nominations-who gets cut in animated feature?
In my mind, there is no category more exciting right now than Animated Feature film. With Pixar out this year and no Frozen-style film to take its place, this year's category is wide open both for a win and for a nomination. How to Train Your Dragon 2, The Lego Movie, Big Hero 6, The Box Trolls, Song of the Sea, The Tale of Princess Kaguya, and The Book of Life all have the good and the bad in their corner (and none seem like a "winner" right now), but between the seven you almost certainly have your five nominations and your eventual victor. Who lands on top and which two miss entirely?
Those are my burning questions-what are your guesses for the answers? What other questions do you have? Click on the comments and share your thoughts!
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