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| How many seats can Harry Reid hold onto in three weeks? |
This probably has already been answered, but since it has been the driving narrative of the election for over a year, it seems foolish not to include it. The Democrats basically have to pull an inside straight at this point to win the Senate, taking NC/IA/CO, and then pray for a miracle in Kansas, Arkansas, or Georgia (all the talk about Alaska seems to be a bit behind-the-polls at this point). That said, the actual end result of the Senate will be extremely important. If the Democrats keep the Republican gains to only six (still possible), the Republicans are basically guaranteed to lose the Senate in 2016 with the deck stacked enormously against them. If the Republicans win 8-9 seats, however, the possibility of a more lasting majority becomes a reality.
2. What precisely is happening in South Dakota?
I still think that Gov. Mike Rounds will win the state, but of all of the shocking poll results of the past few weeks, none has been odder than the all-over-the-map results of the threeway race between Rounds, former Sen. Larry Pressler (I) and congressional staffer Rick Weiland. I am still waiting for some polling to come out of this race, but this even more than Kansas fascinates me because almost anything could conceivably happen.
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| Attorney General Martha Coakley (D-MA), running for governor |
Democrats are against a brick wall in the battle for the Senate and the House, but polling in the governor’s races has been trending in their direction in recent days. Democrats have made gains in Republican-held seats in Florida, Michigan, and Georgia, and also have strong shots in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Kansas, and Maine. Combine that with improving fortunes for Democrats in Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, and Colorado, and you could be in for a night of mixed narratives.
4. Will Mary Burke end Scott Walker’s presidential race in nineteen days?
Perhaps no politician has a race with more riding on it than Scott Walker does in Wisconsin. Both sides have brought out all of their big guns in anticipation for a tight race between Gov. Scott Walker and Mary Burke. The incumbent Republican is seen by many as a potential presidential candidate in 2016, but his chances would be destroyed if he loses in November (this has happened before, as Roy Barnes in 2002 and George Allen in 2006 both spring to mind). This could be a victory that Democrats kick themselves over for years if Walker ends up becoming president (much like Richards/Bush in 1994).
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| Will Eliot Cutler (I-MN) be the spoiler yet again? |
Polling in the Maine gubernatorial election seems to be mirroring 2010, when a progressive independent candidate and a Democrat split the vote to allow a hard-right conservative to win the election. Polling site Real Clear Politics now gives the advantage to Gov. Paul LePage (R) by +0.5 points in the polls after months of Democrat Mike Michaud having the advantage. Will progressives hemorrhage from independent Eliot Cutler in the waning days of the campaign or will they maintain, costing Rep. Mike Michaud the election?
6. What happens if the Senate is decided in the runoffs?
While it seems increasingly unlikely that the Republicans don’t win the Senate, it is definitely fair game to assume that they won’t know they’ve won for several months. Mary Landrieu’s race in Louisiana is near certain to go a runoff, and Michelle Nunn’s is looking more and more likely to as the momentum in that race has swung in her direction. Between these two and Greg Orman’s Hamlet routine over in Wichita, there’s a very strong chance that the Republicans won’t have enough seats to claim the majority outright on November 5th. How will races in Louisiana and Georgia change in terms of turnout when they know that they are deciding control of the Senate.
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| Rep. Michael Grimm (R-NY) |
Few individual races have the level of intrigue that Rep. Michael Grimm’s do in New York-11. While most pundits wrote Grimm off after his tax evasion, fraud, and perjury charges, his place as a Republican from Staten Island against a Democrat from Brooklyn (in a district that favors Grimm on both counts) could give the Democrats a stunning partisan/geographical defeat over a seat they have been long favored to carry.
8. Which Democratic incumbents are going to lose in the House?
Pundits have been increasing the amount of seats the Republicans are expected to win (getting John Boehner much closer to his historic goal of 245) in their "gut feeling" predictions. However, they haven’t been willing to pull the trigger and guess very many as losses quite yet. At least a few of the following names won’t be returning in 2015: Ron Barber, Ann Kirkpatrick, Ami Bera, Scott Peters, Bill Enyart, Brad Schneider, Rick Nolan, Carol Shea-Porter, Nick Rahall, Tim Bishop, Collin Peterson, and Julia Brownley…but which ones?
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| Can Gwen Graham (D-FL) minimize the losses for House Democrats? |
Democrats are largely expected by pundits to be picking up Grimm’s seat in New York and the open seat of Gary Miller in CA-31. However, there are a couple of seats that seem to still be in play in Iowa, Nebraska, Florida, Colorado, and New Jersey that could theoretically curb the losses for the Democrats in other parts of the country. The question is, will any of them be able to fight a GOP tide to seal the deal?
10. Which presidential candidates are helped by the elections?
Win or lose, someone’s going to gain and someone’s going to fall (and sometimes, you do win by losing). Will Hillary go into 2016 with dampened enthusiasm if the Democrats get pummeled, or will she be able to capitalize on a more distinct Obama vs. the Republicans narrative with the GOP entirely in control of Congress? Will Mitch McConnell be able to make the Senate more publicly popular, helping Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio? Will the results of the Florida gubernatorial election hurt Jeb Bush’s chances? And will Scott Walker have a job come January? These and other more unexpected results will shape the next election, which the press will begin discussing constantly in roughly nineteen days and one minute…
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