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| Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) |
Even for political junkies, memories can be short. The reality is that each election is so filled with unique stories that we can barely remember the last one, much less multiple previous cycles.
However, one of the things to realize about regarding the last cycle, when Heidi Heitkamp stunned the political community by winning the North Dakota Senate seat is that every cycle there is at least one upset very few people saw coming. At this point in the cycle two years ago, no one would have expected the former Attorney General to win that election. The state was going to go decidedly in the direction of Mitt Romney, Heitkamp had been out of electoral politics for over a decade, and North Dakota had taken a rightward swing in regard to its congressional elections (two years earlier, the Democrats had lost a Senate and a House seat that they had controlled).
Therefore, it's worth begging the question-which seats this cycle do few to no people think will actually turn, and which somehow could? I figured I'd throw out three candidates on each side that have genuine potential, but don't seem to be connecting in their races. For the record, these are not races like Alaska's Senate race or Florida's governor's race where you could make a legitimate argument that either side could win; these are instead the races that one side (in all but one case, the incumbent side) are "sure to win" but there's potential for the race to swing.
The Republicans
Colorado Governor's Race
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| Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) |
In most cases, this will be a specific candidate, but the Colorado gubernatorial race is not one of them. The Republicans have four legitimate candidates headed into their June primary: the current Secretary of State (Scott Gessler), two former congressmen (Tom Tancredo and Bob Beauprez), and the former State Senate minority leader (Mike Kopp). Of the four, Gessler or Kopp in my opinion would have the best shots-Tancredo is very conservative (probably too much so for Colorado) and Beauprez is a recent statewide loser (he lost this race in 2006). That said, in the scant polls that have been done on the race, Tancredo seems to be edging Gessler for the nomination.
However, Gov. John Hickenlooper, despite coming into this office as a rock star former mayor of Denver four years ago, has had a rough first term in office. His approval has taken quite a hit after a wishy-washy stand regarding the Nathan Dunlap execution and for his push for more gun control. The NRA and Michael Bloomberg will likely both be spending money in this race, and even if Tancredo ends up being the nominee, this could get competitive. It's worth noting that this state has a huge number of important elections up-and-down the ballot (a tight U.S. Senate battle, the Romanoff/Coffman House battle, control of the State Senate, and three very competitive constitutional office races), and the tenor of this race and the one for Mark Udall's seat could have a serious effect on coattails, so expect campaigning to get fierce.
State Representative Dennis Richardson (R-OR)
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| St. Rep. Dennis Richardson (R-OR) |
While the national media continues to pound home the fact that the Affordable Care Act is unpopular (side note-but you can always tell in the Political Wire podcasts which "nonpartisan" is a Republican when they insist that the moderator call it Obamacare...also, you should be listening to these if you come here for the politics and not the movies-they're fascinating), the reality is that there have been different levels of execution. In Kentucky, for example, the program has been a rousing success, something trumpeted by John Yarmuth and Steve Beshear at every opportunity (I do feel that Alison Lundergan Grimes is trying to have her cake and eat it too on the issue, which isn't wise, particularly when you're running against Mitch McConnell). However, the program has had disastrous rollouts in some states, none more than the Beaver State's Cover Oregon, which has been so unsuccessful that they voted in April to adopt the federal healthcare.gov starting next year.
All of this coupled with potential voter fatigue (this would be his fourth term) could hurt John Kitzhaber despite the liberal leanings of Oregon. It should be noted that Kitzhaber very nearly lost to someone who would have been a Heitkamp of 2010-Kitzhaber was widely expected to win in 2010, but lost to a second tier candidate (Chris Dudley) by less than two points.
Despite his problems with the health care website, this cycle seems to be much kinder to Kitzhaber. The top candidates for the seat (Dudley, former Sen. Gordon Smith, and Rep. Greg Walden) all passed on running. That left Kitzhaber with State Rep. Dennis Richardson as his likely opponent. On paper, Richardson's voting record (to the right of this fairly progressive state) and low name recognition could hurt, but a national wave if it materializes and an easy attack point in Cover Oregon (coupled with the fact that attacking the health care website is a favorite topic of Republican mega-donors) leaves Kitzhaber more vulnerable than polls would have you believe.
Sen. Scott Brown (R-NH)
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| Sen. Scott Brown (R-NH) |
I know you've all heard about him, and he's quite famous. That doesn't necessarily translate, however, into a candidate that has a legitimate chance at winning (just ask Wendy Davis or Clay Aiken). Brown is fighting on more favorable territory than Davis or Aiken, however, and is theoretically able to win. I disagree with a recent interview I heard with James Pindell about New Hampshire being a "purple" state (when the Democrats have carried every election since 2004 in your state in major numbers with one exception, you're more blue than purple), the state does tend to swing hard when it goes (look at how frequently the House seats have exchanged hands in recent years). Brown, if the national mood catches right, could be the candidate that benefits. He's handsome and also someone who has a general ease with voters.
The problems with him compared to Richardson and the Colorado Republicans is that he's not a great campaigner and his name recognition means that any gaffes will be picked up by the national media. His Hamlet-on-the-Androscoggin routine about entering the race, along with recent allegations that he stalled a popular bill in the Senate to keep Jeanne Shaheen from having a strong talking point on the campaign trail are not going to sit well with any constituency, much less a population that doesn't like government interference in their lives. And the more that Brown, who recently moved to the state in the past year, keeps harping on how Jeanne Shaheen isn't from New Hampshire (she was born in Missouri but has lived and worked there for forty years), the less chance he has of actually winning (the "we're both carpetbaggers" routine isn't going to fly on a sitting senator and former three-term governor), which, thanks to his strong financial resources and a potential Republican wave, he could well do.
The Democrats
State Sen. Jack Hatch (D-IA)
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| State Sen. Jack Hatch (D-IA) |
In Iowa, there is only Terry Branstad when it comes to being governor. The native son of Leland, he has served an astounding five terms as governor of the state, and were he to win and fully serve his next term, he would be the longest-serving governor in the nation's history (former New York Governor George Clinton currently has the record, which is over 200 years old).
However, Branstad has had a series of minor-to-midlevel scandals in the past month, and polling shows that while he's still in the lead, State Sen. Jack Hatch is gaining and now has a single-digit gap to close rather than double-digit. Branstad, who has been popular for most of his terms in office, is not used to handling scandals and it shows, as he is badly dismissing the accusations, making Republicans nervous. It's difficult to see Hatch, a little-known state senator, out-raising Branstad in this state, but as Chris Dudley proved in 2010, it's possible to make a competitive race out of nothing. This is also why it's smart to have at least some capable candidate running. If something like this happened to, say, Brian Sandoval in Nevada, the Democrats would have no way of capitalizing on it. A state senator, even a fairly unknown one, is a decent insurance policy if Branstad starts to falter.
State Rep. Paul Davis (D-KY)
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| St. Rep. Paul Davis (D-KS) |
Few states should have to worry about having a conservative governor more than Kansas, but Gov. Sam Brownback, running for a second term, seems to have run into issues. His tax plan has been wildly unpopular (a PPP poll in February had it at a 26-47% approval rating) and his cuts to education have been poorly received. Brownback's best opportunity is the R behind his name.
However, Kansas has an oddly strong history of electing Democratic governors. In the past thirty years, half of them have been represented by a Democratic governor, despite the rightward tilt of the state, meaning that House Minority Leader Paul Davis, if Brownback's popularity continues to falter, could be a potential sleeper winner in this state. Davis almost assuredly won't out-raise Brownback (the Kansas governor's race doesn't have the sex appeal of say, the one in Florida), but in a relatively cheap media market he doesn't need to do so. Davis is running one of the smarter campaigns of the people on this list, staying relatively on the sidelines and playing his opponent (similar to how Michelle Nunn is handling Georgia). This could be a bright spot for a Democratic Party in search of one.
Sen. John Walsh (D-MT)
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| Sen. John Walsh (D-MT) |
For all of the talk about Alaska, Arkansas, North Carolina, and Louisiana, I do feel that the Democrats may be missing the boat in Montana. Sen. John Walsh, appointed to the seat upon the resignation of Sen. Max Baucus, is down in polling but not out, and there are a couple of factors that make me raise my eyebrow a bit over Steve Daines. The first is the obvious similarity to the Heitkamp race and also to Mark Pryor's race-recently, it seems that states don't tend to like people asking for a quick promotion, and one-term House members like Rick Berg (and potentially Tom Cotton) both seem to be poorly received by their states. People want you to do the job you've been elected to before you try and get another one.
The second is that, despite the politically red vibe of the state on a national level, Montana isn't as conservative as neighboring Wyoming or Idaho. Sens. Baucus and Tester have proven that you can hold this seat as a Democrat for a long while, and with the exception of Daines and the state's Attorney General, all other statewide offices are held by Democrats. This is a sleeper race if the national mood starts to shift at all, as the Democrats have the blueprints from past races to win here, even if they aren't seeing it right now.
Those are my potential sleeper races of 2014-what do you think? Who is this year's Heidi Heitkamp?
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