The Most Important Elections of 2016...In 2014

I’ve been trying to think of a new way to spin this election, since every article seems to be some iteration of “the Democrats are all going to lose in November” or “will Hillary run?” and I think I may have found a way to do it.

It’s frequently said that elections have consequences, and this is in some cases literal and in some cases figurative.  In the case of 2016, though, the results of several elections this autumn could have huge, direct impacts on what happens two years later.  I’ve come up with nine obvious contenders (if you have more, the comments are right there).  Let’s take a look…

Road to the White House

Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI)

Of the myriad candidates considering the Republican nomination in 2016, two have what looks to be a competitive race that they have to get through first, in Ohio (Gov. John Kasich) and Wisconsin (Gov. Scott Walker).  Neither man will likely take their reelection for granted, even though I’d say at the outset it’s difficult to see either one losing.

That’s because recent history is paved with men who ran ahead of themselves in their quest for the White House.  Recent examples include Gov. Roy Barnes (G-DA), a likely 2004 contender who got stampeded in the 2002 Republican waves and Sen. George Allen (R-VA) who was considered by many to be the heir apparent to George W. Bush, but lost all of his presidential ambitions when Jim Webb upset him during the Democratic wave.  While some people have overcome losing their last election and still won the nomination (Richard Nixon and Walter Mondale come to mind), it is extremely rare, and I would assume that if either man loses his presidential chances will go to zero.

Sen. Mark Warner is not considered a likely Democratic candidate if Hillary Clinton runs for the White House, but as we’ve pointed out before, he’d be a superb choice for the second spot for a Clinton candidacy, but he’ll be off the list if he cannot beat former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie.

Appointment Dominoes

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)

Even those men who are not on the ballot in 2014 could still feel its wrath, particularly in Florida and Nevada.  In Florida, Gov. Rick Scott (R) is in a tough race against former Gov. Charlie Crist (D).  Were Scott to lose the election, that would put Marco Rubio in a tough bind, as Rubio would not be able to win the White House (as either the top or second spot) without his seat going to the Democrats (as Crist would surely make the seat blue).  With the 2016 Senate race likely to be a close affair, every seat will count, and Rubio may run into a situation similar to what Joe Lieberman would have faced in 2000, where his winning the Vice Presidency would give the Republicans the Senate seat (had the Democrats nominated Bob Graham, for example, they would have won both the White House and the Senate in 2000…time machine inventors, take note).

The other major seat that will become a problem for the Republicans is the Nevada Lieutenant Governor race, which will have major implications for Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV).  It is widely expected that Gov. Brian Sandoval will win re-election, and has his eyes on a Senate campaign in 2016 against the Majority Leader.  However, the governor and lieutenant governor run separately, and the Democrats have an even shot at winning the seat in November.  Harry Reid hand picked St. Rep. Lucy Flores, and is pushing hard to get her elected in November.  If Flores were to take over the second-in-command, it seems very unlikely that Sandoval would risk giving the Democrats the governorship, meaning that Reid’s number one opponent would not run against him, giving him a safer path to reelection.

2016 Senate Races

St. Rep. Lucy Flores (D-NV)

Two races will have a big impact on two other Senate races in 2016.  One is in Iowa, and it’s actually this year’s Senate election.  Many people are assuming that Sen. Chuck Grassley could retire in 2016 (he’ll be 83 when he’s up for reelection), and considering the dearth of challengers that emerged to take on Sen. Tom Harkin this year, if the Republicans cannot take his seat this year, it’s very likely that we’ll see a number of them running two years later.  This is also true for the men fighting to succeed Rep. Tom Latham-if one of them beats Democrat Staci Appel, they could pull a Rick Berg/Steve Daines and jump for a promotion after only one-term on the job (and now that I think about it, so could Appel if she is victorious, as the Democratic bench is pretty thin in 2016 if Tom Vilsack takes a pass).

In New Hampshire, the Democrats have tight races for both of their House seats.  Keeping a particularly close eye on these races is Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R), who is up for a tough reelection in 2016.  Considering the Democrats are likely to win the state in the Electoral College, I would suspect that Ayotte would be very vulnerable, and if either Carol Shea-Porter or Ann McLane Kuster wins reelection, they would be in a superb position to take her on in that race.  It’s worth noting that Shea-Porter has a longer tenure in Congress, but is the more vulnerable of the two in the general (her seat is more of a tossup), but she stepped aside for the seat in 2010 and probably wouldn’t again for a more junior congresswoman.

What does it indicate?

It’s likely that November will be good for Republicans, and they have incumbents running in most of the swing Obama states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, etc).  However the Democrats have real races going in North Carolina (Kay Hagan’s reelection) and Georgia (the open governor’s and Senate races).  If these seats migrate to the blue side, this could be indicative of these states being in play for a potential Clinton candidacy, particularly if they defy the Republican wave.  These states also have Senate elections in 2016 and a governor’s race in North Carolina that ambitious Democrats in the state may take a second look at (I’m looking particularly at Roy Cooper in North Carolina and John Barrow in Georgia) if Michelle Nunn and Kay Hagan can prove the states are now in play for the left.  This is what Mark Udall did in 2008 after Ken Salazar proved it could be done, as well as Mark Warner after Jim Webb won.

And those are my seats that I think could impact 2016 this November-which races am I missing (I’m sure there are more)?