Will This Movie Make the OVP?

Every year around this time, my life turns to chaos.  I am trying to hop from holiday event to holiday event, buying presents and I'm generally working a few extra hours.  I am trying to fight the holiday pounds and reading through a half dozen books.  And then there are the movies-Oscar season is really just a six-week sprint at this point, and I'm balancing time and money in order to hit what's in the theaters both for my own personal awards as well as my hope to clear out most of the OVP before the ceremony.  You see, I try as hard as I can to see all of the nominees before the nominations come out and definitely before the Oscar ceremony.  This is always an exercise in futility (I've never hit them all before the Oscars thanks to odd release dates), but I always try.

However, in attempting to get this clean sweep while realizing that I have a finite amount of money and time, I run into the "will it be nominated" quandary, typically in the tech, music, and foreign language categories.  Some movies are obvious that they'll compete (American Hustle and Nebraska are going to be viewed post haste, and The Great Gatsby is at the top of the Netflix queue).  Other movies I just want to see regardless before I pick my own awards (Frances Ha looks delightful).  Below, though, I have listed a Top 10 films I wouldn't normally see, were it not for the fact that I'm thinking they could score with Oscar, in descending order of my descending interest.  Tell me your guesses and which ones I should be lining up for in the comments!

10. The Great Beauty
Contender In: Foreign Language Film
Why I'm Not Really Interested: Listen, I get to see a lot of foreign language film nominees, and my no reading the summary of a film before it comes out rule may be skewing me a bit here, but this looks like a late-in-life-crisis for an Italian man who is surrounded by overly tanned women in bikinis.  Sexism yawn.
Redeeming Factor: Foreign Language Film nominees are usually interesting at least, and the reviews are solid.
Will I See It: It's only in my market for another few days, so if I'm feeling really bored this weekend, probably-otherwise it will be a Netflix entry (if it's nominated).

9. The Invisible Woman
Contender In: Best Costume Design
Why I'm Not Really Interested: Biopics have never been my thing, and if this film was better, wouldn't it be opening a tad bit earlier and with more pomp-it stars two Oscar nominees and an up-and-coming actress.
Redeeming Factor: The English Patient is my favorite film of the past fifty years, and a reunion of that film is a great selling point.
Will I See It: Probably-The English Patient stars are usually enough to get me to almost any film, though I don't know if it will get to this market before the nominations are announced.

8. Rush
Contender In: Best Picture, Supporting Actor, Film Editing, and the Sound Categories
Why I'm Not Really Interested: Sports films aren't really my thing, neither is Ron Howard, and this film was poorly-reviewed by my most trusted film reviewers.
Redeeming Factor: ...Chris Hemsworth is a babe, right?
Will I See It: Considering the new life that the HFPA breathed into it this morning, this is a guarantee regardless of the OVP, though it will be after the nominations (I missed it in theaters and the DVD release date is later than that, I believe).

7. Oblivion
Contender In: Visual Effects
Why I'm Not Really Interested: I was honestly very interested in this film early on in the cycle, and it's actually in my Netflix queue free-of-a-push, but there are so many films to see and an unimpressive Tom Cruise picture seems like a disappointment.
Redeeming Factor: While I think he may be personally crazy, I still rather enjoy Tom Cruise on-screen.
Will I See It: The question isn't whether I will see it (I will), but is it worth one of the pivotal pre-Oscar nominations slots?  My gut says yes, but the comments section is there to sway me!

6. Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Contender In: Actor, Score, Song
Why I'm Not Really Interested: Idris Elba is a stud, but I haven't yet had the performance that convinces me he's a great actor yet (and I suspect Luther is a better bet).  Biopics are really not my thing, and ones that are only on the fringes of the Oscars make me nervous.
Redeeming Factor: Did I mention Idris Elba is a stud?
Will I See It: If I'm stuck with no other options for a Christmas movie and this manages to make it to the part of the country where I spend that holiday, then yes.  Otherwise, this is a wait-until-it's-nominated sort of flick.

5. Epic
Contender In: Animated Feature
Why I'm Not Really Interested: Animated features this year have been full of disappointment for me, and those were the ones that made gazillions of dollars.
Redeeming Factor: I had to double check, but it did (barely) clear a fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, so there's that.
Will I See It: I'm on the fence-it's not a film I would normally see, and part of me is guessing that it will be the first Netflix viewing post-Oscar morning in a similar fashion to Pirates: Band of Misfits last year.

4. Lone Survivor
Contender In: Sound Categories
Why I'm Not Really Interested: Mark Wahlberg is occasionally a very talented actor, but his films are hot-and-cold for me, and this movie just doesn't get me going at all-it recalls too much Act of Valor, another film that I was right on the fence about seeing last year due to its proximity to Oscar.
Redeeming Factor: Wahlberg, Taylor Kitsch, Ben Foster, Emile Hirsch, Eric Bana, Alexander Ludwig...where's a Dustin Lance Black script when you need one?
Will I See It: It'll still be in theaters if and win it scores a Sound nomination-I'll see it then, but not before I get the go-ahead.

3. The Lone Ranger
Contender In: Makeup, Visual Effects
Why I'm No Really Interested: The reviews, the previews, Johnny Depp's makeup...did anyone want this movie?
Redeeming Factor: While I think the boat has kind of sailed on Armie Hammer being a movie star (he just doesn't have the charisma even if he looks like one), I have actually heard this film isn't as bad as it seemed, particularly some of the action sequences.
Will I See It: Not without an Oscar nomination.

2. One Chance
Contender In: Best Original Song
Why I'm Not Really Interested: It's an uplifting biopic whose main plot point is reality television.  Everything about that sentence makes me want to vomit.
Redeeming Factor: I'm actually okay with Taylor Swift this year (I liked a couple of songs off of Red), and while I don't want her to get an Oscar nomination, I also won't throw something at the television if it happens.  Also, James Corden is so charming.
Will I See It: In the vein of the previous article, I don't have to worry about this one-it will be Oscar-blessed or denied by the time it comes out in the states on February 7th.

1. Bad Grandpa
Contender In: Makeup
Why I'm Not Really Interested: Do I need to explain?  There's a reason a film like One Chance, which I would normally not touch with a ten-foot pole, is in second place.  And for those of you who scoff at this idea, In Contention has Bad Grandpa in fourth on their Oscar predictions for Makeup and Indiewire has it in eighth.  Also, Click, Life, and Norbit are all Oscar-nominated because of this branch.
Redeeming Factor: None.  The OVP enters a dark chapter if I have to see this film.
Will I See It: I am a Type-A completist, so if it sticks the landing on an Oscar nomination (we haven't seen the bake-off for this branch yet, but I think we're going to see it on the shortlist at least), I will see it.  But will I see it before it's Oscar-blessed.  Hell to the no.

Those are my films-which one do you think I'm most off-base on and should catch (if one of these movies is genuinely good, I want to see it for sure)?  Which one are you in total agreement and think that Oscar should give the "next" to?  Share in the comments!