State of the Race: Oscar Updates

There are other precursors (most notably BAFTA, which is an honor in and of itself, as well as the BFCA’s, which might as well be an Entertainment Weekly prediction article because they have all of the prestige and half the class of it), but the SAG Awards and the Golden Globes give us 90-95% of our big six nominees each year.  Since both are now announced, I thought it would be the perfect time to start looking at where we’re at for each category (I’ll revisit Best Director at a later date when we have the DGA nominees, but I’ll throw in Animated Feature to make up for its absence):

Best Picture

Golden Globe Nominees: 12 Years a Slave, Captain Phillips, Gravity, Philomena, Rush, American Hustle, Her, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, The Wolf of Wall Street

SAG Nominees (technically it’s Best Cast, but I’m counting it here until ): 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle August Osage County, Dallas Buyers Club, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Other Names We Should Remember: There are thirteen movies listed above in what is likely an 8-9 film wide list.  This is probably it, though Saving Mr. Banks and Blue Jasmine oddly couldn’t score at the Globes and SAG Awards, respectively.

The Lowdown: We’ll tackle who will win it all when we get the actual nominees, so in terms of nominations, Gravity, 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle and Captain Phillips all feel pretty locked in place by now.  I’m also going to assume that Inside Llewyn Davis (the new ten-wide favors the Coen Brothers), Nebraska (prestige film from a director who has scored here before) and The Wolf of Wall Street (everyone loves Marty) make it as well.  That leaves us with three hypothetical slots-I’m going to assume that most years are going to have nine, so I’ll go with Dallas Buyers Club (it clearly has support from the actors’ branch, a key component to a nomination here) and August Osage County (That cast! Harvey!) to make it in the final slots.  If there were a tenth, I’m leaning toward The Butler (That cast! Harvey!) over the less showy Her.

My Nominees (in order of likelihood): 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Nebraska, Inside Llewyn Davis, The Wolf of Wall Street, August Osage County, Dallas Buyers Club

Best Actor

Golden Globe Nominees: Chiwetel Ejiofor, Idris Elba, Tom Hanks, Matthew McConaughey, Robert Redford, Christian Bale (American Hustle), Bruce Dern, Leonardo DiCaprio, Oscar Isaac, Joaquin Phoenix

SAG Nominees: Bruce Dern, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Tom Hanks, Matthew McConaughey, Forest Whitaker

Other Names We Should Remember: Poor Michael B. Jordan, too sexy and too independent to gain any traction this year.

The Lowdown: Our five Best Actor nominees are most certainly one of these eleven men, and we can throw out Idris Elba (who saw that coming?!?), but that’s about it.  Honestly, while there are a lot of locks in this race (McConaughey, Dern, Ejiofor, and probably Redford despite the weird miss with SAG), any of these men could make the cut and you wouldn’t bat an eye about it.  However, Isaac is too young, Phoenix is too out-there, Bale is too over-shadowed by his female costars, and Whitaker is too bland.  That leaves DiCaprio and Hanks, the Catch Me If You Can duo, battling it out for the last slot.  A week ago I would have assumed that Hanks would be cut since he has a supporting consolation prize, but with the nose dive for Saving Mr. Banks, they’ll want him somewhere and so I’m tentatively cutting Leo, as the Academy has been lukewarm on him considering the amount of Globe nods he has compared to Oscar.

My Nominees (in order of likelihood): Chiwetel Ejiofor, Matthew McConaughey, Bruce Dern, Robert Redford, Tom Hanks

Best Actress

Golden Globe Nominees: Amy Adams, Julie Delpy, Greta Gerwig, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Meryl Streep, Cate Blanchett, Sandra Bullock, Judi Dench, Emma Thompson, Kate Winslet

SAG Nominees: Cate Blanchett, Sandra Bullock, Judi Dench, Meryl Streep, Emma Thompson

Other Names We Should Remember: While Oscar pundits will continue to keep Adele Exarchopoulos and Brie Larson on their charts, it seems very unlikely that the nominees won’t be one of the ten above women (and really only six of them).  Also, though she never had a shot at the Oscar nod, what is with the Globes and Melissa McCarthy?  Seriously-name me another performer in a recent memory that starred in back-to-back $100 million comedies, got an Oscar nomination for acting, and won an Emmy that couldn't even muster a single Globe nod?  I don't think there is one; the HFPA clearly does not like Melissa McCarthy.

The Lowdown: Congratulations to Kate Winslet, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Greta Gerwig and Julie Delpy on your Golden Globe nominations-I hope you have a terrific night and get sauced and maybe get into a drinking contest to live stream on YouTube (where’s that Kickstarter account, because I have $100 ready and willing).  However, none of you will be nominated for the Oscar for Best Actress in a few weeks, as that is between the six remaining women.  Honestly, aside from Blanchett and Bullock the other four women appear to be relatively easily matched.  Yes, Adams is the only one that isn’t on everyone’s predicted lists and she missed at the SAG Awards, but she’ll still be at the SAG Awards (Best Cast nominee), there’s a good chance she’ll win the Globe (her first significant acting trophy ever) and she’s starring in a major Best Picture contender.  Add in the fact that she’s the youngest contender (a major factor with Oscar) and that she’s the only one of the women never to win and I suspect she’s going to make it.  Of the other three, while I reserve the right to change my mind, I think that Emma Thompson may be the one that gets cut-her film hasn’t gained traction anywhere, she’s the least “right now Box Office” of the six, and she’s the only one in her 50’s (a rough time of life for Oscar and actresses).  Plus, Disney isn’t strong at campaigning for Oscars and Meryl/Judi have Harvey behind them.  Any of those four women could be cut, but right now I’m leaning toward Emma.

My Nominees (in order of likelihood): Cate Blanchett, Sandra Bullock, Judi Dench, Meryl Streep, Amy Adams

Best Supporting Actor

Golden Globe Nominees: Barkhad Abdi, Daniel Bruhl, Bradley Cooper, Michael Fassbender, Jared Leto

SAG Nominees: Barkhad Abdi, Daniel Bruhl, Michael Fassbender, James Gandolfini, Jared Leto

Other Names We Should Remember: Every year there’s at least one actor that makes Oscar’s list without a SAG or GG nomination-this seems like the most likely category considering the relative weakness of a few of the nominees.  Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks), Will Forte (Nebraska), or Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street) all could be that name.

The Lowdown: Oh what a difference a week makes.  This time Monday we had all written Daniel Bruhl out of the race and were assuming that Barkhad Abdi was going to go the way of Ann Dowd (remembered but not really).  Then came a double nomination.  While I would believe an argument that counts one of them out, it’s impossible to see them both missing, so one of them is about to get his first Oscar nomination.  I’ll assume that Fassy and Leto both make it (ugh-I have a feeling that Jared Leto is about to pull a sweep at awards shows), and because I can’t predict between the two, I’ll predict Bruhl and Abdi.  Bradley Cooper makes more sense on paper than Gandolfini (Oscar doesn’t do posthumous very often…certainly not as much as other awards shows), but I’m sticking to my guns and assuming a non-ordained nominee skates in with Oscar.  Tom Hanks makes SO MUCH more sense, but vote-splitting and the lackluster response to Saving Mr. Banks has me going toward Jonah Hill by a hair.

My Nominees (in order of likelihood): Jared Leto, Michael Fassbender, Barkhad Abdi, Daniel Bruhl, Jonah Hill

Best Supporting Actress

Golden Globe Nominees: Sally Hawkins, Jennifer Lawrence, Lupita Nyong’O, Julia Roberts, June Squibb

SAG Nominees: Jennifer Lawrence, Lupita Nyong’O, Julia Roberts, June Squibb, Oprah Winfrey

Other Names We Should Remember: Oscar charts will recall Margo Martindale and Octavia Spencer, but let’s be honest-they’re too well-known to have missed twice and not score with Oscar.  That leaves Margot Robbie as the only other name I could see sneaking in this late in the game, as her film’s momentum is still growing and Scorsese is oddly good with this category (he’s scored five Oscar nods for supporting actresses over the years).

The Lowdown: No matter what happens on Oscar nomination morning, it is difficult to fathom something as stunning as Oprah Winfrey not being nominated at the Globes.  I was positive she would win the thing, and now she won’t even be nominated.  Her chance for winning the Oscar went down the tubes this morning as well (that’s Lupita Nyong’O’s to lose at this point), but I still think she manages to make it with AMPAS.  Along with her will be the other doubly-nominated actresses, and Sally Hawkins/Margot Robbie will have to treasure the reviews for their films and the extra exposure their roles gave to their careers.

My Nominees (in order of likelihood): Lupita Nyong’O, June Squibb, Jennifer Lawrence, Julia Roberts, Oprah Winfrey

Best Animated Feature

Golden Globe Nominees: The Croods, Despicable Me 2, Frozen

The Lowdown: Aside from Oprah missing, the biggest snub of the morning was Pixar and Monsters University­-this is the first time EVER that the studio has missed out on an Globe nomination (it was even nominated for Cars 2) and that could be a sign of things to come in what is basically a 6-7 film race.  I suspect that Oscar stays five-wide (though that would be a curious question and would reshape this race dramatically) and that Frozen, The Croods, and The Wind Rises (ineligible for the Globe here, but it was nominated for Best Foreign Film, so it was definitely endorsed heartily) are all three nominated.  The final four films are Despicable Me 2, Monsters University, Ernest & Celestine, and Epic, which is feeling more and more like a Pirates: Band of Misfits situation (both films had Oscar-nominated/winning directors to add some cred with the animators’ branch).  I feel like Epic is being underestimated and Despicable Me 2 should probably be more obvious than it is, but I’ll stick (barely) with Monsters U and Ernest & Celestine, knowing that both could quite easily fall.

My Nominees (in order of likelihood): Frozen, The Wind Rises, The Croods, Monsters University, Ernest & Celestine

Also, while I linked to one of our past Golden Globe articles (you can find the others here and here), I did want to note some of the movement on the list.  No one broke onto the "most honored without a single Oscar nod list," though Michael Fassbender and Sally Hawkins now have two without an Oscar nod (though both could obviously make it in with AMPAS in a couple of weeks).  Leonardo DiCaprio would move into fifth place if he doesn't make it to the Oscars with The Wolf of Wall Street and Meryl would be second only to Shirley MacLaine if she gets skipped for August Osage County.  And though the math isn't quite with her for a tie-break, Julia Roberts would hit the threshold of five nominations to at least tie Al Pacino if she can't get in for August Osage County.

And there you have the nominees-what are your thoughts?  Do you agree/disagree?  And what were your thoughts about the SAG and Golden Globe nominations?  Share in the comments!