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| Marcia Gay Harden couldn't get a Globe or SAG nod for either of her Oscar bids. |
And yet, every year there's at least one acting nominee (and perhaps 2-3) who gets a nomination without a Globe or SAG Award nomination. Looking at the past ten years of awards, only once have all ten nominees come to the Kodak with a SAG or a Globe nomination:
2012: 3 (Quvenzhane Wallis, Emmanuelle Riva, and Jacki Weaver)
2011: 2 (Gary Oldman and Max von Sydow)
2010: 1 (Javier Bardem)
2009: 1 (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
2008: 1 (Michael Shannon)
2007: 2 (Laura Linney and Tommy Lee Jones)
2006: 0 (This is the only year every nominee came with a SAG or Globe nomination)
2005: 1 (William Hurt)
2004: 2 (Alan Alda and Clint Eastwood)
2003: 4 (Samantha Morton, Djimon Hounsou, Shohreh Aghdashloo, and Marcia Gay Harden)
As you can see only once did an "all-precursored" lineup make it into the field, and looking at 2006 you see partially why when you examine Best Supporting Actor. While Best Actress, Actor, and Supporting Actress were all lockstep categories, Supporting Actor had a staggering nine actors nominated between the Globes and the SAG Awards (only Eddie Murphy managed to make it onto both lists), so nearly every name that was seriously contending for a nomination was included (examining that year a bit more, it still could have been Michael Sheen for The Queen who disrupted the boat, but with names like Ben Affleck, Brad Pitt, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Jack freaking Nicholson being left off the list, Sheen probably wasn't in sixth). Had it been a more traditional list, someone like Mark Wahlberg or Jackie Earle Haley probably would have surprised at AMPAS.
Taking a further look at these films, it's worth noting that of the seventeen performances that were nominated, seven of them were for Best Picture nominees and many of them were for films with multiple acting nominations. Therefore it might be worth remembering that Best Picture nominees tend to be over-nominated and the acting branch tends to remember performances that they've seen from other screeners.
Considering the odds are that at least one performance will get in without one of these major precursor nominations, I thought I'd do a Top 10 list of the performances that haven't gotten love from the Globes or SAG Awards that could be the odd-person in on January 16th. As always, discuss your thoughts in the comments below:
10. George Clooney (Gravity)
For Him: Clooney is in a Best Picture frontrunner and is easily the biggest name of these ten actors. One could argue that he's been wildly over-nominated in the past decade and the Academy, which has given him two Oscars and a mind-bending eight nominations throughout less than ten years, could see this as yet another chance to invite him to their show.
Against Him: Is anyone remotely talking about this work as "great acting?" There's a lot of argument to be made that if there's going to be a precursor-less nominee, it will be in this category, but there are other contenders which are more likely.
For Her: Foreign language performances don't bode as well at the Globes or SAG Awards as they do with AMPAS (look at recent examples of Javier Bardem and Emmanuelle Riva). Exarchopolous seems likely to score a spot with BAFTA, and if there's a chink in the armor of Emma Thompson, Judi Dench, or Meryl Streep (all likely but not certain), could this young actress take their place?
Against Her: The content of this film aside (and that's a BIG aside), Amy Adams is the true hold-up to an upset in this category. Adams is in a Best Picture frontrunner, got a Globe nomination, and is an Academy favorite. If one of the anointed five falter, doesn't she (who has lost four times) make the most sense to gain the ground? Let's not forget that she had another major hit with Man of Steel earlier this year as well as her loss this past February for The Master.
8. Margo Martindale (August Osage County)
For Her: She's playing a plum role in the production (Rondi Reed won a Tony for the same role), and as a character actress she's in the exact right spot in her career to score an Oscar nod: she's got a hit show on CBS and recently picked up an Emmy.
Against Her: Reviews for the film haven't been universal, and Julia Roberts (who is the lead, but that's an argument for a different day) has sucked up all of the energy for this film. Harvey is already in a rough spot trying to land one of his films in the Best Picture race-he doesn't have time to grab a surprise acting nod.
7. Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)
For Her: She's a well-loved figure in the Academy (remember her steamroll two years ago?) and she's playing a favorite role of Oscar's: long-suffering mother. She gets several great scenes and gets to cry and break our hearts. This is the sort of role that, similar to Harden and Aghdashloo in 2003, could gain steam if AMPAS is watching the screener.
Against Her: Are they going to? This film has none of the heat it did when it was first released (when its topicality made prognosticators over-estimate its awards appeal), and Spencer is famous enough to land a Globe nomination, so why didn't she? This looks great on paper but can she gain traction in a category where the field is tightening swiftly?
For Her: She just scored a major coup in getting the sixth slot nomination at the Critics Choice Awards (the only real argument against the Adams is in sixth place campaign). Her work is very strong, and she's an up-and-coming actress. If Jennifer Lawrence can score for Winter's Bone, surely she's a possibility for this small film.
Against Her: See the Adams argument in the Exarchopolous write-up-she gets a few slots on Adele because she has actually landed a significant predictor of the Oscar, but Adams makes WAY more sense if they skip Emma/Judi/Meryl.
5. Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)
For Him: Nobody loves Tom Hanks quite like Oscar, and his major comeback year is not to be ignored. This is a showy part and Oscar loves both biopics and famous actors playing famous people.
Against Him: He couldn't get in at the star-loving Globes (they went for his costar in a different picture Barkhad Abdi instead), and with Captain Phillips looking more and more likely for him, AMPAS may say one is enough. The film doesn't have as strong of traction as it once did, and if it makes the Best Picture race, it's landing it in a very weak 8-10th place position, hardly strong enough for coattails.
4. Margot Robbie (The Wolf of Wall Street)
For Her: I haven't seen the film yet, but Robbie is one of three actors in the movie making waves. Marty has had great luck with this category (seven nominations and one other close contender) and Oscar loves an ingenue. Robbie is about to be a big star-will AMPAS want a stamp on that?
Against Her: Like Adele, let's rule out the steaminess of the picture (people seem deeply divided on this one)-where is the opening? The most vulnerable person right now is Oprah Winfrey, and you can bet that she and Harvey are out campaigning their asses off ensuring that doesn't falter. The only other person who could go down is Julia Roberts (splitting between lead and supporting causing a ScarJo in 2003 situation?), and she's also wildly famous and has Harvey backing her. If one of them falters I have a feeling it will be Number 3 or 4 on this list and not the only other Globe/SAG nominee (Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine), but that's such a steep hill to climb.
For Her: Looking at the list above, you should notice that films that are Best Picture frontrunners tend to be the ones that sneak in here. That bodes well for Paulson, the only major actor in this film to not be hitting every precursor. She couldn't be hotter in her television career right now, and this category regularly has double nominees from the same film. There's going to be almost no member of the Academy that doesn't see this picture, and her work is quite strong.
Against Her: The "full category" problem I illustrated with Robbie, and another dimension-why hasn't she been sneaking in for this performance at the precursors? She couldn't even make the BFCA's where there are six slots (ScarJo made that list)-is she just not as charismatic on the campaign trail? That could matter when you're going up against Oprah, J. Law, Octavia, and Margo.
2. Will Forte (Nebraska)
For Him: Oscar loves to over-reward Best Picture nominees (Nebraska is making that list) and the actors' branch likes to over-reward films that have multiple nominated actors (Dern and Squibb both seem likely). He's picked up rewards from the NBR and the Spirits (even though he missed with the HFPA and SAG), and everyone will see the film.
Against Him: Snobbery (SNL roots), category confusion (this is a lead performance), and lack of film career (he's more known for television). Otherwise, if they decide to dump Gandolfini/Cooper, this is a pretty solid bet of where they'll head.
1. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
For Him: The industry seems to be warming to him after his Moneyball performance, and he's landed the crucial spot of "best in show" amongst the many supporting actors in Wolf. The film was a late entry in the Oscar race, which may have cost it some support with the Globes and SAG Awards. He was favored by AMPAS once before.
Against Him: The character is pretty sleazy, and Leo did make it for the Globes, proving they theoretically saw the film (though with HFPA and Leo, you never know-they may have just checked the box). Plus, Hill still has some stigma surrounding his name and a second Oscar nomination at only thirty is a lot of faith to put in a guy still most known for bathroom comedies.
You'll notice that I skipped Best Actor with these write-ups all-together, and that's for a reason. The Globes managed to land every frontrunner and potential spoiler in that race except Forest Whitaker, and the SAG Awards inexplicably kept him in the race. No one else seems close to competing, and so I don't see a way that that is our category.
These are my thoughts-what are yours? Do you see one of these actors making the cut? Which one? Share in the comments!
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