I've Got a Globe, I've Got a SAG...I've Got a Problem!

Mila Kunis: Always the bridesmaid with Oscar?

Earlier today, I made a list of the ten actors who didn't score a Globe or SAG nomination that were most likely to still manage to make it with Oscar.  Now, I think it's time to do the inverse.  It's of course worth noting that a Golden Globe nomination or a SAG nomination without an Oscar nod is nothing to scoff at; after all, these are still large platforms and ones that an actor will be able to gain work from for years.  However, this is an "OVP" sort of blog, and getting an Oscar nomination is a part of that, so let's take a look at the actors that were nominated for both but couldn't cut it with Oscar.  Here's a look at the past ten years:

2012: 4 (John Hawkes, Marion Cotillard, Helen Mirren, Nicole Kidman)
2011: 2 (Leonardo DiCaprio, Tilda Swinton)
2010: 1 (Mila Kunis)
2009: 0
2008: 1 (Kate Winslet)
2007: 2 (Ryan Gosling, Angelina Jolie)
2006: 1 (Leonardo DiCaprio)
2005: 2 (Russell Crowe, Ziyi Zhang)
2004: 1 (Paul Giamatti)
2003: 2 (Evan Rachel Wood, Maria Bello)

You would think that 2009 (the year we're discussing at the moment) was a variety of nominees which caused it to be the only exemption, but actually 19/20 of the actors that were nominated at the Globes and SAG Awards also made it at the Oscars (only Maggie Gyllenhaal pulled a come-out-of-nowhere to best Globe nominee Julianne Moore and SAG nominee Diane Kruger), so write that one down as just bizarre.

Otherwise, we have very similar stats to our other list-one actor who made it with both the Globes and the SAG Awards is likely to miss with Oscar.  Looking at this list, you see a few patterns.  For starters, people who managed to get in twice with the Globes/SAG Awards (Kate Winslet, Leo DiCaprio) can't pull it off with Oscar.  Actors who made it for films that received middling/poor reviews suffer quite a bit.  Bizarrely, the bulk of these actors were Oscar nominees at the time (only five weren't).  And all but three of the nominees were in films that didn't get a Best Picture nomination (chalk Leo up to category fraud-there's no figuring out the Giamatti and Kunis's snubs as they don't fit into any bucket I just listed and somehow still missed).  Therefore, I'm making the list below based on both these findings and gut instinct:

(It's worth noting that there are seventeen actors that received a Globe/SAG nomination this year, and a number of them I cannot fathom missing with Oscar.  They are: Chiwetel Ejiofor, Matthew McConaughey, Cate Blanchett, Sandra Bullock, Michael Fassbender, Jared Leto, Jennifer Lawrence, and Lupita Nyong'o.  I honestly think that 90% of the below nominees will probably make it as well, but these eight seem tattooed in place with Oscar).

8. June Squibb and Bruce Dern (tie)

Why They Would Miss: While Dern is the more famous of the two, both actors are relatively low on the fame scale and this is a pretty small film.
...Then Again: As illustrated above, it's rarer to miss with Oscar if you've never been nominated, and both of these two actors are hitting the campaign trail hard.  Plus, this is going to be a Best Picture nominee, and Dern in particular is doing everything he can to make it through.  These are the only two actors listed here that I see as having an outside shot of winning the Oscar, as well, so their snub would be particularly jarring for the race.

7. Julia Roberts

Why She Would Miss: The role is clearly a lead, and category confusion has cost people before in a similar situation (Leo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet both got sacrificed for such an issue).  The film doesn't have spectacular reviews, she's got internal competition, and it's been a long time since she was in Oscar's good graces.
...Then Again: Honestly, with the exception of the category confusion (which does seem like a legit issue for Roberts), those other reasons seem less important.  Roberts is a superstar, and Oscar isn't going to turn her down when she has a Globe and a SAG nomination-this would be a truly surprise miss, and the competition trying to push her out (Sally Hawkins, Sarah Paulson, Margot Robbie, Octavia Spencer) isn't daunting enough to get there.

6. Judi Dench

Why She Would Miss: The film is quite small, and despite an oddly effective Globes campaign (they do love British films and international travel), it probably won't pop up too many more places.  Dench is an Academy favorite, yes, but has missed out a few times when she could have scored in recent years (Nine, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Skyfall), so perhaps she's not as beloved as she once was?
...Then Again: While there's at least a hint of Dench-fatigue, they've never gone against her with this much support, and there are more likely candidates to skip in this race.  If Philomena is the Best Picture nominee that Harvey lands (some think it will be), Dench is that much more secure.

5. Meryl Streep

Why She Would Miss: The film's reviews are middling, and she's been losing a bit of steam on the campaign trail (some people are still tsk-ing that questionable third Oscar).  Could Meryl Streep be the one who scores with both the Globes and the SAG Awards and miss with Oscar?  Stranger things have happened, I suppose...
...Then Again: Meryl doesn't miss with Oscar.  While the Globe Awards do love her more than AMPAS, she's only once scored with both HFPA and SAG and missed with Oscar (for The River Wild, which happened to be the first year of the SAG Awards).  This is more likely than Dench, but still a pretty tough sell.  AMPAS hardly wants "Meryl Misses" as their headline on the 16th.

4. Tom Hanks

Why He Would Miss: Best Actor is a five-man race with six men competing.  With McConaughey, Ejiofor, and probably Dern all locked up, it comes down to Hanks, Redford (who bizarrely missed with SAG and therefore isn't on this list), and Leo DiCaprio to fight it out for the final two slots.  While the Globes helped the film tremendously, this film still feels a little bit "yesterday's news."
...Then Again: We're talking about a Tom Hanks comeback here-he's not only a two-time winner, he's also a longtime member of the AMPAS Board of Governors.  Plus, Leo is always over-rewarded by the Globe awards and seems a pretty solid bet for the miss here.

3. Emma Thompson

Why She Would Miss: We're now making the jump from "theoretically possible they'll miss" to "genuine possibility they'll miss."  On paper Thompson doesn't make a lot of sense, as she checks most of Oscar's boxes: great campaigner, former winner, comeback of sorts, biopic, British.  However, the film hasn't caught fire like anyone expected it to, and there's a good chance she's the only nomination for the movie come Oscar morning.  She doesn't have quite the fame that Streep and Dench do to cause a "STUNNING MISS!" uproar and her spot in Drama with the Globes means that she's not going to take a trophy to help her cause.
...Then Again: Those attributes listed above are really good for her-unlike some other people on this list, she's willing to go the distance and is clearly pushing hard for a sixth Oscar nomination.  Adams, Larson, Exarchopoulos-they're all going to have to campaign ferociously to make this thing happen.

2. Barkhad Abdi

Why He Would Miss: No one has heard of him.  A screen debut, a non-professional actor-this occasionally works, but it's almost always in the female categories.  Someone like Dwight Henry from last year is a good reminder that critical praise in a Best Picture nominee doesn't always sit well if you're a first-timer.
...Then Again: It's a weird conundrum.  On paper, he makes the most sense for a miss.  Can you name the last time an actor got in for a screen debut?  I believe it was Edward Norton, and he had major work that year in People vs. Larry Flynt and Everybody Says I Love You (both films the bulk of the Academy would have seen) to go along with his nominated work in Primal Fear (if there's a more recent male example, the comments are right there).  However, people don't usually miss for a Best Picture nomination and most people (myself included) think this is more likely to take than the Number One.

1. Daniel Bruhl

Why He Would Miss: Honestly, it feels very Leo in J. Edgar here-an actor who was a strong contender throughout the fall manages to make it into both races despite momentum for his film ebbing and disappearing right before awards season.  Unlike Saving Mr. Banks and Captain Phillips, this doesn't seem like appointment viewing for AMPAS.
...Then Again: The only thing truly helping Abdi and Bruhl is that this category has only two "locks": Fassbender and Leto.  There's still a wide-open fifth slot (James Gandolfini and Bradley Cooper split the fifth slot with SAG and the HFPA and neither of them seem "lock-like") and AMPAS doesn't like to get adventurous with multiple slots in the same category.  Otherwise, Bruhl seems the most likely to miss of the seventeen.

Those are my thoughts-what are yours?  Which of these actors misses this year, or are we in for a year like 2009 where everybody's a winner? Share in the comments!