Election Night Reactions

For those of you who only vote in presidential elections, first off-“SHAME!!!!” and second off, those people wearing “I Voted” stickers were not going with oddly low-key, belated Halloween costumes yesterday.  They were out voting!  Since I did this last year, I figured I’d give it a shot this year.

Mayor-Elect? Betsy Hodges

My Favorite Win: Though she hasn’t been formally declared the victor yet, it seems quite apparent that Betsy Hodges, a Democrat who ran in the 35-candidate wide race in Minneapolis (and as you may recall, someone I fully endorsed), has emerged victorious in the Minneapolis Mayor’s race.  I feel confident that Hodges will be a strong mayor for the city, and will be a solid leader for the DFL considering this is one of the state’s most prominent positions.

Runner-Up: For a brief moment at the gym last night I was horribly worried that Terry McAuliffe was going to lose the Virginia governor’s race, which would have been catastrophic for almost every Democrat in the country.  While the focus has been laser-focused on his margin (and annoyingly on the midterms…though I’ll talk about them in a second), in politics there is absolutely no truer cliché than “a win is a win is a win” and Terry McAuliffe won, regardless of the margin.  You don’t get to be partially the governor because you lost by less than you thought you would.

Most Disappointing Loss: I’m going to be honest-last night was relatively good for the Democrats, though I don’t necessarily see that as being a forecaster of the 2014 elections.  We picked up major offices in Virginia (potentially even sweeping statewide) and won the NYC mayoral election for the first time since the 1980’s.  However, a huge disappointment spread over the Virginia State Assembly, where after millions of dollars being spent, we somehow managed to only pick up a net gain of one seat.  The Democrats weren’t going to be able to win back the body (that would have required more seats than were contested), but they managed to hit 48% in eight races and lost them all.  That’s a staggering number of near misses, and one can’t help but wonder what would have happened had the ACA website issues not occurred.  Subtract that from the national conversation, and we’d still very much be focused on the government shutdown, which affected Virginia more than most states, and Terry McAuliffe probably would have had a few more points, carrying most of these races for the Democrats, if not all.

Runner-Up: I would list Barbara Buono, but it’s hard to feel too bad about a race you had zilch shot of winning.  Mark Herring would easily top this list, but he’s still in the hunt with a recall about to commence (if he loses, he's the number one though).  So I’ll go with a fairly low-key race in New Hampshire, where Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas barely held-on against Democratic Alderman Patrick Arnold.  Gatsas has been mentioned as someone who could run for statewide office in the future, and winning this race would have been able to take down one of the GOP’s rising stars in the Granite State.

Sec. Hillary Rodham Clinton

Biggest Election Night Winner Not on the Ballot: Chris Christie was clearly the biggest winner of the night, but of course he was on the ballot, so he doesn’t count.  I think the biggest winner may have been Sen. Jerry Moran.  Moran, the NRSC Chair, saw a blueprint in Virginia on how to run with the Affordable Care Act again, and with major NRSC races in Georgia, Arkansas, North Carolina, Alaska, and Louisiana coming up, he’s got a great template for how to run a single-issue campaign.  The problem, of course, is that there is a year between then and now, and most importantly, the ACA’s most pressing issues (the website not working, people not getting to stay on their insurance plans) will be diluted come next November.  Still, Moran got some good news that part of the Republican campaign nationally has been working, though it wasn’t enough in a swing state (but should be enough in a red state, which is what he’s largely dealing with next year).

Runner-Up: Hillary Clinton got a couple of pieces of good news last night.  For starters, with Chris Christie as the frontrunner for the GOP (this can no longer be denied), she appears the only Democrat who could take him on in a general, adding yet another credential to her list.  She also has an extraordinary ally in Terry McAuliffe.  The Clintons came out in full-force to get McAuliffe elected (the strong African-American turnout in the state can be partially attributed to Bill going campaigning on the road with McAuliffe), and he’ll be gunning to return the favor in 2016 by delivering the Old Dominion to Hillary.

Biggest Lesson for the Democrats Headed into the Midterms: The Affordable Care Act is an albatross, but not in the way that you think it is.  The President, yes, needs to go out and explain in an in-depth, 60 Minutes style interview how the administration will fix the website, and more pressing, the meaning behind the “you’ll get to keep your insurance/doctor,” mantra, but don’t start acting like a chicken with its head cut off.  Stay calm-the public’s memory is short, and the bill is sound.  Don’t do something stupid like extending the registration period (people will still have months to go even if the website is fully functional in a matter of weeks, and the closer you get the deadline to election day, the more impact the issue will have) or by making infighting public.  You’re already seeing this with Sens. Landrieu, Shaheen, and Manchin publicly panicking.  We have a year (ten lifetimes in politics) until the next elections.  Don’t jump off the deep end.

Biggest Lesson for the Republicans Headed into the Midterms: There are groups that are still willing to back you with the right candidate.  Chris Christie didn’t have to abandon his conservative principles to be competitive e and neither did Mark Obenshain.  With the media’s framing of a “Republican moderate” as not being someone who is throwing around hyperbole, you’ve gained a deep advantage (anyone who looks at Mark Obenshain’s record and calls him a moderate is either insane or Ted Cruz).  You need to shore up incumbents and not let another winnable race (which both McAuliffe’s and Northam’s races were) slip away due to having a candidate no one wants.  And you can’t allow another shutdown in February.

Biggest Lesson for the Voters Headed into the Midterms: You need to vote.  Looking at the Virginia races in particular, you never know what race will be the one that comes down to the wire-with eight Virginia Assembly races being decided by 200-300 votes, and the Attorney General’s race being decided by roughly the same, it is imperative that you realize this when headed to the polls.  This is particularly true of demographics that tend to underperform on Election Day at the polls (younger voters and minority voters)-as has been seen in the past few months, it’s not just the president that makes decisions-if you can’t get out and elect governors, senators, and other candidates who support him, you’re just electing a guy who can make a good speech but can’t deliver on what he’s saying.  And I will add the caveat that the only important races aren’t just for partisan elections-if you had a school board election, city council election, or municipal election yesterday, you should have voted.  These people make big decisions in your day-to-day life, and if you follow politics, they are the people who eventually become state legislators, congressmen, senators, governors, and presidents.

Those are my thoughts-what are yours?  What did you think of the election night?  And will Mark Herring emerge victorious (the night’s best cliffhanger)?  Share in the comments!