Saturday, November 24, 2012

Extremely Late Election Wrap-Up

All right, I'm well-aware that I'm way, WAY too late to be writing this up, but since we're about to enter the final stretch of Oscar and year-end wrap-ups, I figured I can package this in a way that reflects a year-end look at politics of the year at-large, and not just focus on one night (plus, for the sake of record, I want to have this written down).  If you're sick of politics and the election and just want to move on, there's reviews of Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook right below this, and recaps of Glee and American Horror Story are about to be coming your way.  If, however, you still want to discuss, here are my year-end honors for the best and worst of the year in politics:

My Favorite Win: The obvious one for my partisan nature is the President's victory, and indeed, that one feels pretty good (especially the near sweep of swing states).  However, I saw that one coming, and it's the upsets that get you smiling the most, and so my favorite win of the night was Heidi Heitkamp, pulling her victory out-of-nowhere in North Dakota after a near flawless campaign.  I'm not sure if she'll be a super moderate senator or a partisan-who-talks-like-a-moderate senator (similar to Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad), but I'm excited to see what she does.  I also love a second act in politics, and who would have thought twelve years ago after her 10-point loss to John Hoeven that they'd be serving together in the Senate?
Runner-Up: The four states that stood up for equal rights for gay/lesbian Americans.

Most Disappointing Loss: On a night where Todd Akin, Richard Mourdock, Allen West, and Joe Walsh all were given a "Do Not Return" sticker from the voters, it would have been so sweet if Jim Graves had been successful in beating Michele Bachmann in one of her closest elections to-date.  Every two years it seems like she will be rejected by voters, and every two years liberals have to endure another two years of her in Congress.
Runner-Up: On a night that saw a near-sweep for the Democrats of the Senate seats, another 12,000 voters in Nevada would have been all it took to get our last contender over the finish line.  Shelley Berkley's loss was probably the one that stung the most after Graves.

Weirdest Victory: In a year that had largely proclaimed the political death of the Blue Dog Democrat, John Barrow, Jim Matheson, and (recount-pending) Mike McIntyre all three made it through despite a wildly conservative tilt to their districts.  While Larry Kissell, Ben Chandler, and several other prominent Blue Dog Democrats all fell during the election, these three men stunned the political world by once again beating the odds.
Runner-Up: In a state that elected a Democratic president, governor, senator, lieutenant governor, treasurer, auditor, attorney general, and public lands commissioner, somehow the Washington Republicans got enough people to switch parties in order to elect Kim Wyman Secretary of State.  This is doubly as odd considering it was an open seat, and who decides to randomly vote for the other party for an office like Secretary of State?  The Democrats have not held the office for 52 years, and clearly need to regroup if they want a clean sweep of the offices comes 2016.

Biggest Election Night Winner Not on the Ballot: Nate Silver managed to become an overnight celebrity, get his fifteen minutes, and prove that Dick Morris and Dean Chambers are complete blowhards and anyone who hires them for political commentary should consider saving their money.
Runner-Up: Bill Clinton managed to storm the country, get a huge ego boost (everybody loves the guy), and start prepping for a more active role in 2016?  We shall see.

Republican Who Gained the Most By Mitt Romney Losing: Four years from now, anything could happen, and the GOP has a lot of soul-searching to do.  However, the crossover appeal of Chris Christie, a conservative governor of a very blue state who seems destined to win reelection, is going to look awfully appealing to mainstream Republicans who don't want to put up with another four years of Democrats in the White House.
Runner-Up: Jeb Bush-the biggest deficit facing the Republicans right now is their lack of support amongst Hispanic voters, and Bush is one of the few people who has a strong history with Hispanic voters in Florida.

Democrat Who Gained the Most by Barack Obama Winning: This is an easy one-Hillary Clinton now has four more years of the man she served with, sky high approval ratings, and clearly her husband can work a stump still to great aplomb.  If she wants to be president in 2016, all she has to do is say so.
Runner-Up: Joe Biden.  Though I'm still doubtful about his 2016 prospects (given his age and loose lips at the podium), he is now the clear initial frontrunner if Hillary takes a pass, given that he will have the advantage of semi-incumbency.

Biggest Mistake Mitt Romney Made: Whatever his motivations for the 47 percent comment, they were clearly received in the worst possible way, and enforced the stereotype of him being uncaring and out-of-touch with average voters.
Runner-Up: I don't remotely understand his thought process behind the Jeep comment and the universally-panned ads that he was running (even for a candidate the public adores, blatantly and provably lying is never a good political move).  I don't 100% know how he could have won Ohio in those remaining days (he closed better than he polled, but the fact that Obama hit 50-percent in the state shows that it may have always been a lost cause), but the Jeep ad did him no favors.

Final Thoughts for Barack Obama: For a president pre-occupied with legacy, he now has a chance to cement that legacy (name a single one-term president that gets a lot of kudos from historians).  Once the fiscal cliff is tackled, he should have enough political capital to tackle one major issue.  If he wants to be widely celebrated, I strongly suggest it being climate change.  It's the thing that, in my humbled opinion, he will be remembered most for, whether he handles it or not.
Final Thoughts for Mitt Romney: It's tough to lose an election you've been waging for the better part of seven years, perhaps your entire life.  However, not writing a concession speech (especially since every non-partisan pundit had said you would lose) showed a distinct lack of class, modesty, and savvy and your behavior afterwards (the "gifts" comments, amongst others) cemented your position as out-of-touch with the electorate.  You've received a lot of comparisons to John Kerry, which I'm guessing you consider an insult, but I think John Kerry is the high bar at this point of where you will sit in the United States history books-Kerry has gone on to become a leader in foreign policy, gay marriage, and may well become a Cabinet secretary (at the very least, he is well-liked enough by his own party now to be a prime time speaker at the convention, something I doubt you will have the opportunity to be in 2016).  Spend some time regrouping, and while your electoral career is over, there's still plenty that you could lend your name to try and reclaim your name within the GOP.  But it's going to take some humility, which has never been your strong suit.



And that's a wrap for Election 2012 for me!

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