The Importance of Florida-13

Will Alex Sink Kick Off a Democratic Wave?

One of the more annoying aspects of politics (okay-politics is generally super annoying) is the way that pundits try to overanalyze everything as being a part of a larger trend.  A special election or an off-year election predicts glory or doom for a presidential candidate, and every gaffe, issue, or problem can instantly create catastrophe.  It’s utterly ridiculous, particularly when it comes to special elections.  Special elections are almost always in a bottle.  They frequently involved a recently-deceased or scandal-plagued incumbent, they have stunningly low turnout, and get a lot more press than they otherwise would in a traditional election.

But occasionally, a special election happens that has the potential to be a bellwether, and that’s what appears to be happening in Florida-13, where Rep. Bill Young’s recent death has left an opening for the Democrats to not only pick up a seat, but also to send a message to donors, potential candidates, and the news media that they are taking real steps to take back the House next year.

In fact, I’d go so far that, barring something truly impossible to counter (such as Young’s son or his widow running, both of which are possibilities), winning this seat is a must for the Democrats if they truly want people to continue discussing a takeover of the House in 2014.

The reasons for this are simple, and pretty clear.  For starters, this is a seat that has just a Cook PVI of R+1, making it an on-paper tossup in an open seat situation.  The Republicans have been able to hold onto the seat largely due to Young’s personal popularity, and even Young was starting to struggle for his reelection last cycle (he had his closest reelection in two decades in 2012).  President Obama won the seat in both 2008 and 2012.  Plus, the Democrats seem to have a very strong candidate in former state CFO Alex Sink, who has a lot of name recognition from a run for governor in 2010 (she lost by one-point during a landslide year for the GOP).

There’s a few things going against Democrats, not least of which that if Young’s son or widow run, this race becomes a different sort of ballgame (widows do lose congressional seats, but they typically win and Young’s wife is famously outspoken and ambitious).  There’s also the fact that Sink may not have a free ride to the nomination-Jessica Ehrlich, who ran in 2012 and did surprisingly well, is also likely to run which could spell trouble for the Democrats.  The Democrats do the have the advantage of there almost certainly being a Republican primary if no Young relatives run, and Republican primaries in recent years have opened up the possibilities of a Tea Party conservative getting the nomination.  Considering this is a district the President won twice, it’s hard to see a Todd Akin-style Republican winning an open seat.

As I mentioned earlier, if the Democrats can translate this seat in a special, this has the potential (not the certainty, but the potential) to be harbinger for Democrats.  While recruiting will pretty much be done by the time the election takes place, a Sink victory would not just signify that the Democrats only need sixteen seats to take back the House.  It would also tell donors and pundits that districts like Young’s (seats such as IL-13, CA-21, IA-3, and NY-19) could be in play.  It’ll show that Sink, who isone of Steve Israel’s recent “blue chip” recruits, has the potential to win, so why not Pete Festersen or Pam Byrnes?

Likewise, a loss would be devastating to the Democrats.  This is the exact sort of seat that the Dems must win in order to take back the House.  If they can’t take an open seat that went for the President twice, there’s no hope they can take on more conservative seats where the Republicans still have incumbents.  I’m not going to get bogged down with the semantics of “how much” they’d need to win by, but a win seems like a mandatory result for the DCCC in order to convert donors and the media over to the possibility of a Democratic majority come 2015.

So those are my preliminary thoughts on Florida-13, a race I’m certain we’ll be revisiting soon, but what are yours?  Do you think that Alex Sink is the frontrunner, or that this seat could be a canary in the coal mine?  Sound off in the comments!