The State of the Race: House Races, Part 3

Leader Pelosi with Democratic Congresswomen

After we discussed the seats that the Democrats needed to hold, as well as the seats most likely to turn their way (due to the President’s performance in the district), we’ll now dive into the races that will make-or-break a majority.

As I’ve mentioned before, this is a best case scenario for the Democrats-even in the most optimistic of scenarios, the seats we’ve already discussed would be a +7 seat gain for the Democrats, in a House where they need at least seventeen seats to get to the finale.  So, here are the ways they could pick up the remaining seats.

Strong Recruitment in Marginal Districts: We’ve already talked about how the difference between CA-21 and CO-6, both seats that are relatively similar in their partisan makeup, is that the Democrats have an excellent recruit in Colorado and no one in California.  You can’t win if you don’t run, and so getting these candidates is key.

Iraq War Veteran Kevin Strouse

Some of the best candidates the Democrats have recruited in marginal district for 2014 include Dominic Recchia, a New York City Councilman who is running against Michael Grimm in NY-11 or Iraq War veteran Kevin Strouse in PA-8 (the low amount of Democratic congressmen in Pennsylvania is stunning considering the Democrats stronghold there statewide).

There are also a few other states that have questionably good candidates-we’re still waiting to see on whether, say, State Rep. Mike Obermueller can better put MN-2 (which is a seat that went for the President last cycle) in play than he did last cycle (when he was outspent 3-1), or if Naval Officer Suzanne Patrick can outplay Rep. Scott Rigell in the increasingly liberal VA-2.  Attorney Michael Wager in Ohio’s 14^th district will be running against an incumbent who skirted through on a technicality in 2014, which might help Buckeye State Dems if the governor’s race stays competitive.

Recruitment continues to be a struggle though, and the Democrats don’t have the lineup quite yet to take on, say, Jon Runyan in New Jersey’s marginal third district (New Jersey is very averse to knocking out incumbents, regardless of party) or Jeff Denham in California’s tenth district (the three seats in California are really going to be a battleground for Nancy Pelosi, as delivering this trio in her home state would go a long way in her fight to get the Speaker’s gavel).  Look for the Democrats to start looking for former state legislators and self-funders soon in some of these seats, as they have not put enough districts in play at this point to legitimately discuss winning back the House.

St. Rep. Jeff Wardlaw

Pray for Retirements: Democrats, as a general rule are better at ousting incumbents than Republicans, but Republicans are considerably stronger in an open seat race (not sure why-you can hypothesize in the comments).  That said, both parties prefer an open race, especially when the dynamics favor your party, and so the extremely marginal seat of Florida-13, where 82-year-old Rep. Bill Young could retire, has been a mouthwatering prospect for the Democrats for a number of years.  This is also true of 69-year-old Rep. Peter King in New York’s second district.  Open seats bring with them two likely untested candidates, and more margin of error.  Young’s seat is the most obvious contender, but even the opening of Rep. Tom Cotton’s AR-4 seat leaves the opportunity for a conservative Democrat like State Rep. Jeff Wardlaw to sneak in and take the win.

Hope for a National Headwind: The Democrats are not going to win back the House without some sort of wind to their backs.  Democrats, as a general rule, do poorer in Midterm elections (if the number of Democrats who vote in presidential races voted in off-year elections, it would be the Republicans who were 17-seats short this year).  Without the added benefit of a national candidate to rally behind, the Democrats have to rely on a combination of retail politics and geographical advantages.  A national headwind, though, with a clear message would help dramatically.  In 2006, that message was the Iraq War and Hurricane Katrina (helped the Democrats) and in 2010 it was Obamacare (helped the Republicans).  What the issue in 2014 is is anyone’s guess (Syria, anyone?), but one that favors the Democrats would help exponentially, and more than anything else on this list.

Tea Party Advantage: It’s hard to keep track of the number of seats that the Republicans have lost in the past two cycles due to the Tea Party movement and conservative rhetoric that didn’t sell with the electorate.  Everyone from Christine O’Donnell to Allen West to Todd Akin has cost Republicans valuable seats that would have otherwise gone to them.  House primaries are always less evident at this point than Senate primaries, but with the Tea Party movement still relatively strong, it's safe to assume that the Tea Party could put at least 1-2 otherwise safe districts in danger.  If they happen to be in a seat like Frank LoBiondo's or Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's, this would help the Democrats exponentially.

There's Always Room for a Scandal: The final piece of the puzzle the Democrats have no control over: every cycle there's at least one seat that falls because of a scandal.  Last cycle, it was Anthony Weiner's sexting idiocy.  As people's opinions of politicians continue to deteriorate, their tolerance level for politicians goes up (how else to explain that at one point Weiner led the NYC mayor's race), but without fail, every year at least one major seat disappears because the incumbent does something spectacularly stupid (or occasionally criminal).  Again, without a wave, this is a numbers game, and every little bit helps, so that scandal happening to the GOP would get the Democrats 1-2 steps closer.

And that's where we'll leave it for the House races (for now-we'll have more as the election nears).  What are your thoughts-do you think that the Democrats can pull off winning the House?  What is the race that no one is talking about that will suddenly be on everyone's radar?  Share in the comments!