Governors 2014: The State of the Race

Since we did something like this for the Senate a little while ago, I thought I’d take a stab at it for the governor’s races.  Again, we’ll be writing the seats most likely to switch hands come this or next November for the governor’s races, and I’ll be giving my take on what the Democrats would need to do to be successful.

With the governor’s races, the Democrats are poised to almost certainly pick up seats, possibly many of them.  Thanks to the Republican Wave of 2010, a number of Republicans now sit in the governor’s mansion in the Obama-won states of Maine, Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Nevada, and Ohio, and the Democrats are gunning for most of these races.

It’s worth noting that while I’m only dissecting the twelve seats most likely to flip, there’s a number of interesting things happening outside of this top dozen.  Despite the blue-lean of New Jersey, New Mexico, and Nevada, stunningly the Democrats can’t gain any traction (in Nevada, they can’t even find a candidate), despite Chris Christie, Susana Martinez, and Brian Sandoval being to the right of their respective electorates.  Democrats continue to keep a close eye on Arizona, where Gov. Jan Brewer may or may not amend the law to allow her to run for another term (she’s currently term-limited).  Democrats in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maryland could be in for potentially bloody primaries, though the victor seems likely to end up the governor in all three cases.  And finally, there’s always a chance for a marquee (though not necessarily competitive) race in Texas, where liberal superstar Wendy Davis is still considering running for Rick Perry’s open seat.

Madison School Board Member Mary Burke

12. Wisconsin

The Race: Democrats may have screwed themselves two years ago when they attempted to recall Scott Walker.  As a result, the man has now won statewide twice, and their best option (a Tom Barrett rematch) is no longer an option as the man is now a two-time statewide loser.  The Democrats have to see the writing on the wall with Walker, though, at least nationally-after essentially giving Chris Christie a walk-in-the-park in New Jersey, Walker is the only other major 2016 presidential player that they could beat before the primaries.  Though this blog is a 2016 Presidential Race-free zone (at least until after next year’s very important midterms), it should be noted that I believe Scott Walker to be the most underrated and under-discussed presidential contender, and Democrats would do well to stop such a formidable challenger if they can.

What the Democrats Need to Win: For starters, they need to find a different angle with Walker.  While one could make the argument that people kept Walker in because they’re opposed to recall elections (this would include me-I think that occasionally politicians need to make unpopular decisions that are for the greater good, and recall elections make that less likely), clearly the labor tactic is not going to work.  There’s a number of issues (including gay rights, women’s issues, and Voter ID laws, amongst others) that a Democrat could run on, and while labor is sure to be a big part of the campaign (labor is clearly going to be gunning for Rick Snyder, John Kasich, and Scott Walker in 2014), it cannot be the sole focus like it was in the recall.  The Democrats appear to be coalescing around Mary Burke, a Madison School Board member with deep pockets, and like many of these races, the Democrats running a female candidate in an era where the GOP has been hemorrhaging female voters is likely a smart move.

11. Connecticut

The Race: If you recall back to the 2010 elections, you’ll remember that a disproportionately large number of blue state Democrats were having trouble winning seats they would normally have no problem with, and that was particularly true in the Nutmeg State, where the Democrats had a prime opportunity to pick up the seat of retiring moderate Gov. Jodi Rell, but ended up doing so by less than 7000 votes, with Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy just besting Ambassador Tom Foley.  In 2014, we’ll be seeing a rematch of that race and considering Malloy’s approval ratings (low-40’s, a precarious zone for any politician), it’s one to watch.

What the Democrats Need to Win: Turnout.  The Democrats have had a remarkable success rate in New England in the past decade-they have every House seat, all but two of the Senate seats, and all but one of the governor’s mansions.  If voters turnout and vote party line, it’s impossible to see Malloy losing to Foley.  What could happen, though, is that low turnout (there won’t be any other significant races in Connecticut in 2014) may result in too depressed of numbers for the Democrats to make up for Malloy’s middling approval ratings and lack of connection with the state’s voters.

Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald

10. Ohio

The Race: I would have cut this race in favor of Arizona or Massachusetts, but a recent poll shows that despite an impressive rebound by Gov. John Kasich in approval ratings, young Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald could still surprise in a state that went for President Obama twice.

What the Democrats Need to Win: Some tactical errors from Gov. Kasich, and a little more goodwill for President Obama.  Despite the President winning in Ohio twice, this state still feels more red than purple, and FitzGerald is not the consummate politician that Ted Strickland was three years ago when he lost to Kasich.  Kasich hasn’t been able to crack 47% in polling numbers, but FitzGerald would need to pick up almost all of the undecideds to stick the landing here, and that won’t happen unless Kasich slips a bit in his popularity.

9. Colorado

The Race: John Hickenlooper is one of those fallen star sort of politicians.  At one point the former Denver Mayor was a Democratic golden boy, destined to be a Governor or Senator, perhaps even a national candidate someday.  Now with approval ratings that are middling at best, he’s about to embark on what is probably his last political campaign (he could be a potential cabinet secretary in a President Clinton administration, but you know his ambition was once much higher).  He’ll likely be competing against former Rep. Tom Tancredo, a very conservative Republican who ran on a third party line against Hickenlooper in 2010.

What the Democrats Need to Win: For Tancredo to start talking.  Tancredo’s stances are far, far to the right of Colorado (even for a purple state, Tancredo is very in-line with a Michele Bachmann or Steve King, particularly on his signature topic of immigration), and though Hickenlooper isn’t popular, the voters will almost certainly prefer him to Tancredo if this is the same man who ran bombastic campaigns for office in the past.

Gov. Pat Quinn

8. Illinois

The Race: Gov. Pat Quinn (D) avoided a major electoral hurdle when popular state Attorney General Lisa Madigan decided not to run.  Quinn didn’t avoid a primary completely though-former Obama Chief of Staff Bill Daley is competing against Quinn in the primary, and though Daley’s brother is no longer mayor of Chicago, his machine is still finely tuned, and Quinn goes into the race as an underdog.

What the Democrats Need to Win: First, and probably most, they need Quinn to lose the primary.  Quinn did the Democrats a mountain of good when he won the governor’s race three years ago and was able to lead the Democrats through redistricting (we crossed the 200-seat threshold in the House in no small part due to Quinn’s position as governor), but with approval ratings that are in the 30’s, Quinn is too unpopular to win statewide anymore.  Daley isn’t a perfect candidate (everyone involved would have preferred Madigan), but he’s still a Democrat in a deep blue state who doesn’t have horrid approval ratings.

7. Michigan

The Race: Gov. Rick Snyder was at one point one of the most unpopular governors in the country.  Despite a landslide win in 2010, Snyder’s stances on emergency managers, gay rights, and organized labor have made him one of the most loathed Republican governors in the country amongst Democrats, and his approval ratings were regularly in the 30’s.  Since the Detroit bankruptcy, though, his approval ratings have started to take an uptick, and while the Democrats have a solid candidate in former Rep. Mark Schauer, he’s not their best candidate by a longshot.

What the Democrats Need to Win: Strong African-American turnout for Schauer, and for the state’s Democratic roots to show.  The state isn’t as solidly blue as Illinois or Connecticut, but it has gone blue in most Senate and presidential races in the past twenty years.  The state is not opposed to re-electing an unpopular governor, though (see Jennifer Granholm in 2006 for an example), and Snyder’s handling of the Detroit bankruptcy (depending on how it goes) could result in his winning.  Schauer will need to hammer home on Democratic bona fides in the state and get strong results out of Detroit in order to take the race.  And for the future, Democrats need to figure out a way to win one of the state's two other constitutional offices-we haven't had a Democratic Attorney General since 1998 (who was our successful candidate for governor in 2002) and haven't elected a Democratic Secretary of State in at least twenty years.  It's important to have up-and-comers, as Michigan is one of the blue states with the slimmest Democratic benches in the country.

Gov. Nikki Haley

6. South Carolina

The Race: Nikki Haley is one of those rare politicians that is far more popular nationally than she is at home.  Despite being hailed for years as a Republican superstar, she barely won election in South Carolina in 2010 (an embarrassment for Haley, considering the redness of both her state and that election cycle), and has never seen her approval rating very high (it hovers in the low 40’s).  Her opponent in 2014 will be the same as her opponent in 2010, State Sen. Vincent Sheheen.

What the Democrats Need to Win: For the race to be entirely about Haley.  Haley’s inexplicable unpopularity (driven in part by her difficult relationship with the state legislature and the hacking scandal at the beginning of her term) continues to be an albatross for the GOP, though the state’s natural red status gives her the advantage, all things being equal (only one Democrats has won statewide in the past ten years).  Sheheen is clearly a good candidate (no one could get that close in 2010 in South Carolina without being one), but he’s going to have to make sure he can run against Haley, when she’s trying to run against President Obama.

5. Arkansas

The Race: A few weeks ago, this would have been in second place on the list, but races change based on candidates and polls, and few candidates are enjoying the sort of renaissance that former Rep. Mike Ross is this year.  After retiring in 2012 from the House (to the chagrin of the DNC and key Democrats who had counted on him holding his seat), Ross has a chance to redeem himself in the eyes of Democrats by holding this governor’s mansion for the Democrats.  The Land of Opportunity, though, has seen a steep red tilt in the past few years away from the Democrats, which means that Ross, who would have won this race handily eight years ago, is going to have to have it tough against former Rep. Asa Hutchinson.

What the Democrats Need to Win: They need to keep this race local.  Ross’s right-of-the-center voting record in Congress is going to be a solid counterweight to Hutchinson’s attacks on President Obama.  It’s worth noting, as well, that while Hutchinson should not be underestimated, the Republicans’ thin bench is also contributing to him getting the nomination, as Hutchinson has lost three times before in Arkansas, and has never actually won a statewide general election.

Florida CFO Alex Sink

4. Florida

The Race: While Republican Gov. Rick Scott has seen a slight rebound in his numbers, as a whole he continues to be one of the most unpopular governors in the country, a problem for him in a state that went for President Obama twice.  Unlike a lot of races on this list, the presumptive candidate has not been settled (the Democrats are usually better than the Republicans at clearing out a primary field, so they rarely have to deal with competitive primaries when the general is also a tossup).  The two leading candidates appear to be former Gov. Charlie Crist, a recent convert to the Democrats (he was a Republican Senate candidate as recently as 2010), and former Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, who lost to Scott in 2010 by a 1% margin.

What the Democrats Need to Win: Of all of the races, this is a bit too soon to tell, as it’s not obvious which candidate would be the better candidate.  On the surface, Crist polls better and should theoretically be able to take down Scott.  On the other hand, if early polls always held, Crist would now be a freshman Republican senator and a leading candidate for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.  There are a lot of Democrats (including yours truly) who would vastly prefer Sink as their candidate, as she isn’t a recent convert to the party and party-switchers always make me nervous (Sink also polls decently against Scott, though both of these candidates are recent statewide losers, never a comforting thought).  Still, Scott is very vulnerable, and I suspect that no matter whom the Democrats choose, this will be a race to watch.

3. Virginia

The Race: On the surface, Arkansas and Florida appear more likely to switch, and if all of these elections were next year, I’d probably move Virginia down to five.  However, Virginia’s election is in November, so Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli has less time to turn the race around over former DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe.

What the Democrats Need to Win: For this race to remain about the Republicans and the Republican brand in Virginia (which has taken a decided leftward tilt, with both Senate seats and the electoral college switching from red to blue in the past decade) and not on McAuliffe (a politician few voters, even Democrats, really like).  The Democrats and Republicans both should learn from this race not to always go with the frontrunner, as if either party had a better candidate, they would be walking away with this race.  With just a few weeks to go, it appears that McAuliffe will win, and possibly the Democrats will have all statewide offices in Virginia, giving a knock-out blow to a once consistently red state.

Rep. Mike Michaud

2. Maine

The Race: Like I said-McAuliffe is well-positioned to win just a few weeks before the election, so you have to know that these top two have incumbents in huge underdog races.  Lucky for us, both races are in states currently held by the GOP.  Maine, thanks to a very strong third party presence and a weak Democratic candidate, elected a very conservative governor in Paul LePage in 2010.  This time, while Eliot Cutler, the independent from last time, appears to be having a go at it again, the Democrats have a much stronger candidate in Rep. Mike Michaud, who represents the more conservative half of the state in the House, giving him a leg up with swing voters.

What the Democrats Need to Win: To Keep Eliot Cutler down.  Paul LePage is a Tea Party darling with low approval ratings, a poisonous combination for a solid blue state like Maine.  If he needs to hit 45% of the vote, that’s going to be an impossible task.  However, if Cutler is as strong as he was a few years back, and LePage only has to hit 38% again, and that’s going to leave the governor positioned to win a second term.  The Democrats choosing a more moderate candidate like Michaud is probably going to help temper Cutler’s reason for being in the race (providing a more independent voice for the voters in the state), but he’s going to have to get out early (and hopefully score the endorsement of Sen. Angus King) in order to seal the deal.

1. Pennsylvania

The Race: Gov. Tom Corbett won the past election rather handily, with a nearly nine-point margin.  Despite having been twice-elected statewide as Attorney General prior to being governor, Corbett has struggled throughout his tenure to balance his conservative ideals with the left-of-the-middle voters of the Keystone State.  Pennsylvania has an oddly long history of voting blue on a presidential level but red on a statewide level, but Corbett seems incapable of continuing that trend, with approval ratings in the low 30’s and a strong opponent in Rep. Allyson Schwartz.

What the Democrats Need to Win: For Corbett to stay in the race.  If Corbett drops out, this becomes an exponentially easier race for the Republicans, who have a history of winning statewide races in Pennsylvania.  With Corbett still in the race, however, Schwartz is the decided frontrunner.