Senate 2014: The Ten Races to Decide the Majority

In the few weeks since we last looked at the Senate landscape, a lot has changed.  Both the Republicans and the Democrats have seen good and bad news, and the landscape for the 2014 Senate elections is starting to take place (PS, the people who focus more on the presidential race than the impending Senate, House, and gubernatorial elections are the ones who don't get Washington, as these are equally as important to the day-to-day business of the country).  Since every political website does some sort of Top 10 list, I'm going to add a slightly partisan-twist, of what the Democrats would need to do to win the race.  For the record, these are the ten seats most likely to switch hands, not the most competitive (otherwise the top couple would be out in favor of more competitive, though less-likely-to-flip states such as Iowa or Minnesota) or the most interesting (where your-fake-boyfriend-and-mine, Cory Booker, and his race in New Jersey would certainly make the list).  Here's the Top 10:

10. Michigan (D)

The Race: With Sen. Carl Levin (D), a titan of the Senate who has served for over thirty years in the Senate, retiring from the body, this is the first open-seat race in the Wolverine State since 1994.  So far, the Democrats seem to have coalesced behind Rep. Gary Peters, a three-term U.S. Representative who is less a compelling a politician, and more a right-place-at-the-right-time sort of candidate (thanks to Reps. Sander Levin, John Dingell, and John Conyers all being decades into their congressional careers, Peters and Gov. Jennifer Granholm, who declined the race, are the only top tier bench Democrats have in the state).  The Republicans are likely to suffer from a primary, as both former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land and Rep. Dave Camp are considering a race.  Though I suspect that Land would be the better candidate in the general, being the head of the most powerful committee in the U.S. House will certainly give Camp a fundraising advantage were he to run.

What the Democrats Need to Win: Unlike every other race on this list, the Democrats have the advantage here from a national level, as Michigan is a blue state (that occasionally goes red, but rarely on a federal level).  No Republican has won a Senate election here since 1994 and the state hasn't gone for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.  The Democrats biggest liability is certainly what's going on in Detroit, which could be fodder for Republicans, who are less reliant on the city for electoral success, and the gubernatorial race, where Democrats have a strong candidate in former Rep. Mark Schauer, but incumbent Gov. Rick Snyder will have a great organization as he runs for reelection that will help a Republican Senate candidate.

9. Georgia (R)

The Race: Democrats may have missed out when Rep. John Barrow, their first choice of candidate, decided to skip this race, but it may be a blessing in disguise.  Now the DCCC has a tough incumbent running for reelection, and the Democrats have a great candidate in Points of Light CEO Michelle Nunn, who is the daughter of a Georgia institution, former Sen. Sam Nunn.  She also has unimpeachable bipartisan credentials, leading Points of Light with former President George H.W. Bush.  Add that to a very contested primary for the Republicans, with three congressmen, a multi-millionaire businessman, and a former secretary of state, amongst others, running for the race, and you have what could be an upset.

What the Democrats Need to Win: Some luck, and a bloody primary.  People like Rep. Paul Broun or to a mildly lesser extent Rep. Phil Gingrey are both very strong candidates for the primary, but Todd Akins for the general.  While Georgia has made a lot of progress to the Democrats with the increased support of African-Americans in presidential elections, they have not been able to translate that over to the midterms.  Nunn will need to figure out a way to both increase African-American turnout in a midterm (not an easy task) and hope that Broun or Gingrey continue to put their feet in their mouth.  Possible-absolutely, but she's not the commander of her own destiny, which is a hard place to be for a politician.

8. Kentucky (R)

The Race: Despite a couple of missteps in her initial roll-out, Alison Lundergan Grimes seems to have caught her footing in the Kentucky Senate race, and the DSCC seems to have settled on Lundergan Grimes and Nunn as their two challengers, skipping any other offense, and smartly focusing on these two women and then a whole lot of defense (2014 doesn't pose a lot of potential for the Democrats-this is a try to keep as many seats as possible election, with 2016 being a much more fruitful year for picking up seats).  Sen. Mitch McConnell has received a primary challenger, which could help the Democrats as McConnell will have to run from his right and left flanks, but McConnell is one of the savviest politicians around when it comes to keeping his own seat.

What the Democrats Need to Win: To make the race about McConnell, not about Barack Obama, which is going to be tough.  Lundergan Grimes started to address this right away, and she'd be smart to start an across-the-state tour, eschewing big media and going to county fairs as much as possible.  She's ambitious but approachable, a strong combination for an up-and-coming politician, but McConnell's campaigns are notoriously nasty, and she'll need to really start establishing herself early to make sure McConnell doesn't define her before the voters get to know her.  Despite what pundits say, money won't be an issue here (Democrats from around the country are going to pour money into the coffers of anyone trying to take down McConnell), but Lundergan Grimes would be foolish if she hasn't called up Sen. Heidi Heitkamp to get some advice on running in a red state against a Republican not immersed in a scandal, as Heitkamp's race is a model that almost all of the viable Democrats on this list (except Peters) should be studying.

7. North Carolina (D)

The Race: Sen. Kay Hagan managed to ride the major Democratic wave of 2008 and beat Elizabeth Dole, something thought unthinkable just a few months before that election, as Dole was an institution in Republican politics and once a presidential contender.  Republicans have had a tough time nabbing a top tier candidate in this race, and may have to settle for State House Speaker Thom Tillis.

What the Democrats Need to Win: Hagan has a slight advantage here, and she'll need to maintain that.  I remember someone saying something along the lines of Hagan being the quintessential "generic Democrat," someone who the other side has not defined at all, and while a "generic Democrat" loses to a "generic Republican" in the slightly red Tar Heel State, Hagan's large cash advantage and her opponent's lack of name recognition gives her the opportunity to define him early as out-of-step with North Carolina.  Unlike most red states on this list, North Carolina did go for President Obama in 2008 and came very close for him in 2012, so a Democrat winning is most definitely a plausible concept, though the Democrats will obviously have to work at it.

6. Alaska (D)

The Race: Yes, Sarah Palin has stated she might run, but she won't, because she'd lose, and even she is aware she'd lose.  She'll just talk to get herself into the media and raise money for her PAC, but she won't actually run (if she had wanted a career in electoral politics, she wouldn't have resigned early and she would have run for President in 2012, when her star was still high and when she likely could have taken down Romney in the primaries).  Instead, we're left with Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell and Tea Party-backed candidate Joe Miller to take on freshman Sen. Mark Begich.

What the Democrats Need to Win: It'd be super helpful if Joe Miller won the primary, I can say that.  The man is wildly unpopular in the state, but Republican primaries have a way of picking people who are wildly unpopular in the state (Christine O'Donnell, anyone?).  Treadwell isn't a certainty, either, though, despite The Last Frontier's strong Republican bent, as polling has shown Begich doing well against Treadwell.  This is proof that you can never write off an incumbent, as Begich was being called by most pundits five years ago as a "one-termer," but is now in a better position than his more senior colleagues Mary Landrieu and Mark Pryor.

5. Louisiana (D)

The Race: Sen. Mary Landrieu is one of the most battle-tested senators in Washington.  She has won close races in 1996, 2002, and 2008, all races where her career was pronounced "doomed" by multiple pundits prior to the election.  This year the Republicans are lining up behind Rep. Bill Cassidy, and though there's the potential for a late-breaking Tea Party challenger, it's safe to assume Cassidy will be Landrieu's main foe.

What the Democrats Need to Win: This race is the magical line where we cross from states I currently see the incumbent party winning to states where I see them losing, but with races 3-5, it's certainly not a done deal race.  Landrieu is clearly a fighter, and has the infrastructure in this state to win (she's done it four times before, after all), so she'll need to continue her strong mastery of focusing on local issues (her 2002 race was won on this in particular), defining her candidates weaknesses early and often, and getting as much African-American support as possible.  Though she'll have to run against him as a whole, she's going to need the number of African-American voters that Barack Obama got to the polls in the Bayou State to have a shot at a fourth term.  For those doing the math, while Begich's race gives the Democrats the majority, Landrieu winning would give the Democrats 51 seats, so Joe Biden in particular will want her to win if only so that he doesn't have to spend his final days in office breaking tie-after-tie in the Senate.

4. Arkansas (D)

The Race: Sen. Mark Pryor is in perhaps the most difficult race of his career heading into next year, with the fairly popular senator (for a Democrat in a red state, at least) looking likely to face freshman Rep. Tom Cotton.  While freshman representatives are rarely successful (the last person to jump straight from their freshman term in the House to the Senate was Sam Brownback in 1996), Cotton has that rare combination of establishment GOP support and Tea Party adoration, meaning a messy primary is unlikely.
What the Democrats Need to Win: For Mark Pryor to have learned the lessons of Blanche Lincoln, who three years ago got eviscerated in her race for reelection, despite winning easily six years prior.  So far, he's definitely showing some signs of improvement-Pryor is a more conservative Democrat than Lincoln, and while his vote for the PPACA is going to hut him, he's out early and ready to define Cotton.  This is a winnable race, but not one that will be won lightly.  Pryor will need to work to make Cotton's negatives rise as his name recognition does as well.

3. Montana (D)
The Race: With both Sen. Max Baucus and Gov. Brian Schweitzer out of the race, this race has made a decided turn to the red column, something that the Democrats are going to have to work to address.  Republicans are betting the farm on freshman Rep. Steve Daines, perhaps their only legitimate bench in the state without pulling Marc Racicot or Denny Rehberg from retirement, whereas the Democrats are still struggling to find a candidate, likely settling for someone like Lt. Gov. John Walsh.
What the Democrats Need to Win: First of all, they need a candidate, and they need one fast.  There's a lot of talk from DSCC Chair about how at this time two years ago, Heidi Heitkamp wasn't even a blip on the map, but the North Dakota Senate race was an upset, and counting on upsets is always a sure sign of trouble.  Walsh makes the most sense amongst the remaining candidates (or Linda McCulloch, but for some reason no one is talking about her despite four statewide victories and her being term-limited and not to the "political retiring age" yet).  Should we get a decent candidate from the remaining shortlist, Jon Tester's reelection in 2012, when Barack Obama was getting pummeled statewide, would be the best blueprint, as he was running against a fairly respected Republican in the state who had won statewide more than Tester.  Walsh (or whomever) will almost assuredly attack Daines for not even finishing one term in the House before he made the jump for higher office, which reminds me of another race: Heidi Heitkamp's.  Hence why we shouldn't completely disregard Montana, despite what the pundits have done.

2. South Dakota (D)
The Race: With Sen. Tim Johnson retiring after three terms, and with both U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson (his son) and former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin both taking a pass on running, this race seems to be pitting Gov. Mike Rounds (R) against a former senior advisor to Sen. Tom Daschle (D), Rick Weiland.
What the Democrats Need to Win: Christine O'Donnell.  There are several names that are floating against Rounds in the primary, and if one of them ends up being Christine O'Donnell (a huge stretch, as an O'Donnell-style candidate is extremely rare), the Democrats would have an outside shot at winning. Even so, South Dakota is hardly Delaware, and even O'Donnell would have a shot at winning in the Mount Rushmore State.

1. West Virginia (D)
The Race: With longtime Sen. Jay Rockefeller finally packing it in, the Republicans have finally pushed Rep. Shelley Moore Capito to deliver on her promise and run statewide.  Meanwhile, the list of Democrats that have passed range from Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin to Sen. Carte Goodwin to Justice Robin Davis.  The only name left in the field is Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, whom I expect will decline any day now.
What the Democrats Need to Win: For Robert Byrd to rise from the grave.  Seriously, this is a lost cause.

And those are my thoughts, but what are yours?  What races am I missing or misranking (or did I get exactly right)?