Emmy Miniseries Predictions

Comcast may be giving me free HBO for a year, but considering I'm weeks behind on my blog posts, haven't had internet service in an eternity, missed the Tony Awards last night (for the first time in at least a decade) and am now behind on all of my shows, I feel like I should be getting Showtime to boot (as well as a guest-spot as Adam Driver's new gay boyfriend, but I digress).  I know have four Bechdel Tests on my home computer, along with a mountain of political writeups and remaining OVP writeups.  I'm going to try to figure out a way to get the Bechdel Tests and poltiical writeups onto the site, but the OVP's, due to the photo montage I need to make, will probably not come until Saturday (if Comcast makes it...I have doubts, I have such doubts).

In the meantime, I wanted to get out a piece on the upcoming Emmy nominations, and in particular, my favorite Emmy category the miniseries.  I know most people gravitate toward the headliners-Comedy, Drama, Reality-but for me the miniseries category is far more interesting.  Why?  Because with the Drama and Comedy categories, the Emmys are SO boring.  Year-after-year shows like Two and a Half Men or The Good Wife continue their dominance (yes, I've heard the latter show is rather good, but the concept of yet another procedural seems so boring to me so I've never partaken-the former I've seen and it's terrible) get nominations and wins and it's so frustrating.  At least at the Oscars, provided you don't loathe Sandy Powell, John Williams, and Meryl Streep, you get a fresh batch every year.  At the Emmys, that monotony can drag for a decade.

The miniseries category, on the other hand, is all new almost every year (again, provided you don't hate HBO, PBS, or Alfre Woodard), and it's typically littered with movie stars, so yeah!  Let's take a look at the Big 5 categories.

Best Miniseries

My Predictions (in order of likelihood)

• Behind the Candelabra
• American Horror Story: Asylum
• Top of the Lake
• Parades End
• Political Animals
• The Bible

Candelabra, Top of the Lake, and Parades End all seem like sure things.  AHS, considering its dominance last year also qualifies, though I still feel that the miniseries designation here is a bit of a stretch.  The final two are just hunches.  Political Animals is one of those series that clearly would have been a regular series had the ratings been stronger, and is now cheating to get here, which the Emmys may punish.  Phil Spector or The Girl make far more sense in this category than the critically-mixed Bible epic, but I just can't get over those ratings, and the Emmys are voted upon by people who run television, and they may want to reward further the massive viewership the miniseries grabbed.

Best Actor in a Miniseries

My Predictions (in order of likelihood)

• Michael Douglas (Behind the Candelabra)
• Al Pacino (Phil Spector)
• Matt Damon (Behind the Candelabra)
• Toby Jones (The Girl)
• Benedict Cumberbatch (Parades End)

Douglas has already cleared some room on his shelf for this trophy, as he's definitely grabbing it.  Damon, despite being second-lead seems a sure thing as well, and Pacino is too famous for them to snub even though Phil Spector seems eons ago thanks to Candelabra, doesn't it?  Jones and Cumberbatch are less certain, but honestly, who takes their place?  Kenneth Branagh in Wallander, again?  That's about the only possibility, but I don't think it'll be enough.  Is this Cumberbatch's first major nomination?  I think it might be the start of a long career of awards shows.

Best Actress in a Miniseries

My Predictions (in order of likelihood)

• Jessica Lange (American Horror Story: Asylum)
• Helen Mirren (Phil Spector)
• Sigourney Weaver (Political Animals)
• Elisabeth Moss (Top of the Lake)
• Laura Linney (The Big C: Hereafter)

Again, I feel like both Lange and Linney are cheating here considering their shows are clearly installments in series, but they're both in the running, and considering their Emmy status, are both in as well.  Mirren always gets nominated, Weaver seems a strong bet (though she never wins the Emmy, and has bad luck this year with her odd Tony snub).  Moss is the only person in this lineup who isn't an obvious "movie star who happens to do television," which may give her an outside shot at the eventual trophy (for some reason she seems incapable of winning for Mad Men).  If there's an upset in the running, it will be either Brenda Blethyn or Hilary Swank in Mary and Martha-both have awards cache, but neither has a lot of buzz, and so while neither would surprise me, I'm not sure which to pick, so I'm going with neither.

Best Supporting Actor in a Miniseries

My Predictions (in order of likelihood)

• James Cromwell (American Horror Story: Asylum)
• Jeffrey Tambor (Phil Spector)
• Rob Lowe (Behind the Candelabra)
• Dan Aykroyd (Behind the Candelabra)
• Zachary Quinto (American Horror Story: Asylum)

Yes, I'm aware that Peter Mullan is a more likely contender than Quinto (and possibly even Aykroyd, though that Oscar nomination always helps with the Emmys, even if it's about to be 25) and yes, James Woods is always an Emmy threat (though again, how big is Mary and Martha), but awards bodies usually go for serial killers, and Quinto most definitely fits that bill.  Plus, the Emmys probably want to reward someone that has been a fixture on TV screens for years now and is managing a great bit of success between the big and small screens, and it's no fun to predict all of the frontrunners.

Best Supporting Actress in a Miniseries
My Predictions (in order of likelihood)

• Holly Hunter (Top of the Lake)
• Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Asylum)
• Alfre Woodard (Steel Magnolias)
• Ellen Burstyn (Political Animals)
• Imelda Staunton (The Girl)

Lily Rabe should probably be in the running here, but, despite her recent Tony nomination, she's not a known commodity in the way these five women are, and it's hard to believe that anyone who watches AHS all the way through wouldn't favor Paulson (though she's most definitely the lead, which is a quibble of a different order).  Otherwise, while Staunton is vulnerable, aside from Rabe I don't know who could take her out, and they do love Oscar nominees at the Emmys (as I've mentioned before).  Hunter is a mortal lock (and probably on-track to win), and betting against Alfre Woodard or Ellen Burstyn at the Emmys is a fool's errand (between the two, they have 23 Emmy nominations).

And those are my guesses.  If I can figure out a way to post all of my Bechdel Tests this week, I'll definitely try.  Otherwise, we'll be looking at one post a day until Saturday, when we will finish up the 2012 OVP and start on all of the fun of June (Comcast willing).