But first we have to discuss the news that is rocking the political world this morning, the death of 5-term U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg, a firebrand from New Jersey and the final World War II veteran to serve in the U.S. Senate (considering the youngest World War II vets are in their mid-eighties now, that's a title he'll likely hold forever). Lautenberg was one of the Senate's most liberal members; a strong advocate for gun control, he was the author of the Ryan White Act (providing for lower-income people who suffer from HIV/AIDS) and most notably banned smoking on commercial flights. As a geeky high school student, I had a self-made photo montage of my favorite senators on the wall, and situated between Fritz Hollings, Joe Biden, and Mary Landrieu was a beaming Frank Lautenberg, so you should know I've always been a fan, and will miss him in the Senate.
With Frank's passing, though, there is one of the most interesting Senate openings to come across in a long while, principally due to Lautenberg's Democratic Party affiliation, an affiliation that is not shared by the state's governor, the popular Chris Christie. To say this is a decision that Christie didn't need is a massive understatement. Christie, who is running way ahead in his reelection fight has been situating himself as a bipartisan man of the people, a candidate who doesn't have the red state luxury afforded to other leading presidential candidates for the GOP nomination like Rand Paul and Paul Ryan. Christie cannot seriously contend for the GOP nomination without winning re-election (Rick Santorum is the only candidate in recent memory who ran a decent presidential race coming off of an electoral defeat, and he still got clobbered by Mitt Romney), but he cannot go too far to the middle in his quest for that re-election without also alienating his presidential ambitions.
So with that introduction, here are the four major questions being poised by pundits and political commentators regarding this decision, and my thoughts on each:
This is the one that everyone has jumped on first, and I think it's the easiest. While, as a Democrat, I'd love to see this seat stay in our hands, it would be political suicide for Christie to pick a Democrat when he has the option of a Republican. He may lose some points for appointing a member of the GOP, and his Democratic opponent Barbara Buono (who would be smart to not have a public comment except in regard to condolences to Lautenberg's family until Christie makes his decision, as this is the biggest development she's going to see in this race, and she doesn't want to overplay her hand too quickly with a shrewd politician like Christie) will be attacking him for the appointment, but if Christie has the remotest hope of being a viable presidential candidate, he CANNOT appoint a Democrat. That Democrat will provide a thousand debate retorts and campaign commercials, principally because he would likely support the president on at least some contentious issues, if not most. Even if he appoints a moderate Republican, that charge will be a lot more difficult to make stick.
2. Should Christie declare a special election or have the election in November?
State law mandates that Christie have the election in the calendar year, so it's now a question of whether Christie wants to play a game of "Big Risk, Big Reward" with this seat. The obvious solution is a special election-a contentious primary for the seat in November could mean that Christie has a much more conservative candidate to run with in November, increasing more partisan turnout. In addition, it seems possible that Cory Booker, the popular mayor of Newark (who is a personal friend of Christie's) could drive up liberal turnout, particularly in the African-American communities, which would surely help Barbara Buono.
So from a pragmatic standpoint, at least in terms of this November, a special election makes more sense. But...there's also a flipside to this coin (isn't there always in politics?). Calling a special election seems unnecessary considering the state will likely have another election a couple months later, and this wouldn't sit well with the Tea Party wing of his party in a presidential primary. Secondly, Christie appears on-track to win big in November, and may have the coattails to carry a Republican to a win (not completely unlikely, particularly if Booker doesn't win the Democratic primary), which would have huge consequences in a presidential primary where party leaders are looking for someone who could be a downballot boon after disastrous coattail candidates like McCain and Romney. If he could get the GOP another (elected) Republican senator, that would be a brilliant way to start his presidential campaign.
3. Whom should Christie appoint?
There's two choices when you are picking a senator from your own party-do you want a caretaker or do you want a challenger? For me, this comes down to if Christie wants to run in a special election or in November. If he's shooting for a special election, I'd go with a caretaker. A caretaker (someone who would be unlikely to run for the full election), has been en vogue lately, with recent Sens. Ted Kaufman, Roland Burris, Paul Kirk, and Mo Cowan all being just around long enough for a subsequent election to be called. With a caretaker, Christie is taking the safe choice-he's wiping his hands clean of the nominee and the nominee is likely to be a backbencher who won't make much of a stir. Though he has some ties to the Bush presidency, former Governor Tom Kean Sr. would be a solid choice if he went this route-revered in New Jersey, he'd be able to start Day One in the Senate and wouldn't hurt Christie at all in his re-election.
But if Christie decides to go with the election in November, he will want a challenger. Why? He will want as much of a hand in picking out who his "running mate" as possible. He won't want a Christine O'Donnell or Joe Miller to emerge from the Tea Party wings of the party, and though incumbency is no guarantee that the senator will win a primary, it's a very difficult perch to beat (particularly with Christie backing the person). If Christie goes this route, I would recommend he avoid past Senate losers Tom Kean Jr. and Joe Kyrillos, as picking someone the state has already rejected (especially to replace someone the state endorsed five times) would come across as tacky.
Instead, I'd recommend a moderate Republican woman. His best option is likely his lieutenant governor, Kim Guadagno, who has the benefit of being a loyal Christie supporter and is a proven vote-getter (she won a tight race for Monmouth County Sheriff in 2007). Other choices (especially if he wants to keep Guadagno on his ticket-Guadagno may find this appealing, considering she would become governor if Christie were elected president) include Bergen County Executive Kathleen Donovan (who bested a Democratic incumbent for her seat, no easy feat), or especially State Sen. Diane Allen, a Republican who may be a bit too moderate for Christie (the pro-choice and pro-gay marriage state senator would instantly become the most liberal Republican in Congress), but is beloved in her home district and is a candidate even a Yellow Dog Democrat like myself would consider supporting.
Finally, a decision that Christie doesn't have to make, but one that definitely affects him. Cory Booker is a national celebrity (or as much of a celebrity as the Mayor of Newark can be on a national scale), and will be a huge vote driver whenever he runs for the Senate. However, there are some in the Democratic Party that don't care for him. His comments in defense of Mitt Romney during the presidential race in 2012 (over Bain Capital) didn't sit well with some of the higher-ups in the Democratic Party, and neither did his decision to enter the Democratic Primary in 2014 before Sen. Lautenberg had turned down the race (Lautenberg did seem likely to decline to run for re-election, but that was a pretty severe breach of congressional decorum, and put people like Harry Reid and Bob Menendez in an awkward position).
Frank Pallone has long coveted a Senate seat, and as a 25-year veteran of the U.S. House, has made his fair share of fundraising and party leader contacts. There's a possibility that Pallone, realizing this is his last chance at a Senate seat, tries to go at Booker from the left, and were he successful, we'd probably be in for a closer November race (one that would still favor the Democrats, but not by as large of a margin). If Pallone were the candidate, the benefits of a special election above for Christie become less and the rewards of a general campaign become more inviting. There's no way that Christie will know which of them will be victorious, but you can bet he's listening in for any polling in the race.
So, a long look at one big decision for one of the biggest names in Republican politics today. This could have a huge impact on Chris Christie's future and his quest to become the nation's 45th president...for better or for worse.
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