House Outlook

We interrupt the long pause away from movies for three updates on the state of the Congress. This is part one, the House.

For those of you wishing to see what's going on in the fight for the nation's Congress, take a look at these races. I winnowed it down to the Top 30 most vulnerable seats. The big thing to know this cycle is that, if the Democrats continue to capitalize on their rather illustrious and impressive wave, there will be seats sitting below this list that may be in play. Typically, in an election cycle, a political analyst is lucky to have ten seats change hands. This year, every one of these thirty seems to have the potential to be in play. A brief analysis is presented here, with number one being the seat most likely to switch.

1. Arizona-8: After Randy Graf's victory in the Republican primary over more moderate Steve Huffman, this is the Democrats race to lose. Gabrielle Giffords is a moderate woman who has a vast appeal, and the outgoing incumbent GOP Rep. Jim Kolbe refuses to endorse Graf. The NRCC yanked money out of the race once Graf won, making it look like they'll be giving up on the race. Graf also has received press for his association with white suprematist David Duke. All of this may mean a huge influx of moderates coming out in support of Giffords (possibly enough to effect other races).

2. Texas-22: With Tom DeLay scandal-plagued and no official Republican on the ballot, a write-in campaign by Sheila Sekula-Gibbs would require a perfect storm. However, Republicans this cycle can't afford a perfect storm, and therefore the Democrats will be able to take this with Former Rep. Nick Lampson.

3. Colorado-7: Bob Beauprez is running incredibly poorly statewide, and may even lose his home district of CO-7. This can't be good for Rick O'Donnell, who already has an uphill battle against State Sen. Ed Perlmutter.

4. Iowa-1: Like Beauprez in Colorado, Rep. Jim Nussle continues to struggle in his statewide run for governor. Likewise, the Republican running to replace him, Mike Whalen, can't quite overcome the Democratic advantages of this cycle, leaving room for attorney Bruce Braley to have some success.

5. Indiana-9: This race, the third in a line of rematches, looks to be very advantageous for the Democrats. Rep. Mike Sodrel is forced to run against For. Rep. Baron Hill, who lost the seat in the Bush wave of 2004. This year, however, the Democrats are on the offense and Hill seems like a more seasoned politico, which should help over the finishing line.

6. Pennsylvania-6: If there is a bellwether district in the country, it is this race. Democrat Lois Murphy is running against incumbent Rep. Dan Gerlach for the second time. Last cycle, Murphy barely lost to Gerlach in this incredibly moderate district. This year, with the popular Gov. Ed Rendell cruising to reelection and Democrats movitaved to vote out Rick Santorum, Murphy may have the ingredients for a victory.

7. Indiana-8: John Hostettler may have had more close calls than any other incumbent in Washington, and 2006 is proving to be another one. However, Brad Ellsworth has slowly been able to become his toughest race to date, and Hostettler has the unpopularity of Bush and Gov. Mitch Daniels in Indiana. Currently, I suspect that Ellsworth is leading, but this race is far from over.

8. Connecticut-2: The latest from this race is a gaffe upon the part of Rob Simmons, who looked like a fool over the Garton sub base by attacking Courtney for his contributions. Courtney appears to have won this battle, and continues to chide Simmons for being the most conservative member of CT's delegation-not good in a district that is naturally blue.

9. Indiana-2: Rep. Chris Chocola who rode a strong wave four years ago to beat Former Rep. Jill Long Thompson may be kicked out on a wave this year. He's been running poorly for nearly a year now against Joe Donnelly. Were it not for the huge surprise of the competitiveness of this race, I'd have this in the top five. As it is, Donnelly's in a very good situation right now.

10. New York-24: I put this higher than others simply because, with Spitzer and Clinton dominating the political landscape, I don't think many Republicans will be turning out to support non-entities. Therfore, District Attorney Mike Arcuri may be able to ride coattails against State Sen. Ray Meier.

11. Connecticut-4: If there is one person the Lamont v. Lieberman race is going to help, it's Diane Farrell. Lamont scored big in this district, the most liberal seat held by a Republican in Congress. Rep. Chris Shays has to play from both sides on the Iraq War issue, and Farrell seems to have gained some ground from her surprisingly close victory in 2004.

12. New Mexico-1: This comes down to whether Patricia Madrid, who has had some heat in her corner over ethical charges regarding her investigation of State Treasurer Robert Vigil, can ride the Democratic wave over Rep. Heather Wilson, who typically can pull through tight races. If Wilson goes down in 2006, expect the Democrats to pick up Sen. Pete Domenici's seat in 2008.

13. Pennsylvania-8: Like Lois Murphy (No. 6), Patrick Murphy is going to benefit from a Democratic wave. His race against Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, who won his first race against unseasoned amateur, is turning heads in Washington and is being highly targeted. Patrick Murphy, an Iraq War veteran, may be the Democrats best shot at getting a military personnel into office.

14. Kentucky-4: Geoff Davis (R), the first-term representative from this district, is running against his predecessor. Some may say that Davis will have incumbency on his side, but polls indicate that Ken Lucas, the three-term representative from this district, has the lead. Plus, some voters may think Lucas is still the incumbent, which will help the Democrats.

15. Virginia-2: Thelma Drake, a first-term Republican, has found herself in a dilly of a pickle in this Virginia district. Her competitor, Phil Kellam, has gained grounds against her, mostly due to the unfavorability of the current administration. Drake is one of the great bellwether Republicans: if she goes down, it will be a long night for the GOP.

16. Ohio-15: Mary Jo Kilroy, a Democratic County Commissioner, is running the race of her life against Rep. Deborah Pryce, a longtime incumbent and member of the Republican House leadership. The unpopularity of Gov. Bob Taft and Bush in Ohio makes this a potential cog in a Democratic wave.

17. Ohio-18: Not only does State Sen. Joy Padgett have to deal with the unpopularity of Bush and Governor Taft (whose administration she was part of), but she has to deal with the Poster Boy for corrupt GOP behavior, Rep. Bob Ney, who was just indicted in the Jack Abramoff scandal. This is all good for Zach Space, the young Democrat running against her and who continually leads in this district.

18. North Carolina-11: The only reason I don't have this higher is that embattled incumbent Rep. Charlie Taylor (R) constantly receives great challenges, only to pull off victory at the last minute. Former Pro Football Player Heath Shuler is hoping that he won't fall into the pitfalls of history here.

19. Florida-22: Rep. Clay Shaw has faced many challengers before, but none quite as dept as State Sen. Ron Klein. Shaw is one of the few Republicans who may be able to have coattails this year, however, with Charlie Crist dominating Rep. Jim Davis in the race for governor of Florida. Klein's going to need a solid Get-Out-the-Vote effort in order to take this, but I suspect that national Democrats are willing to make the push here.

20. Illinois-6: Has there been a more publicized candidate this cycle than Tammy Duckworth, the disabled Iraq War veteran who has gained support from national Democrats everywhere and has all of the personality and chutzpah against bland State Sen. Peter Roskam? I can't think of one, which makes me wonder if Duckworth will have considerable crossover appeal amongst soccer moms; she'll need it in this inherently Republican district.

21. Pennsylvania-10: On the one hand, College Professor Chris Carney is far too second tier to legitimately make a challenge for this seat, held by Rep. Don Sherwood. However, Sherwood's scandals, coupled with his weak primary showing and relatively poor campaign leaves an open for Carney to swoop in if there is a wave.

22. Washington-8: Polls are fairly divergent in this race, though Rep. Dave Reichert, a first-term Republican, does seem to have an edge over Microsoft executive Darcy Burner. Any coattails that happen in this race, however, will go to Burner, who should be able to count on a 1-2 point bump from national trends in liberal Washington, so if they're tied on Election Day, expect this to be a nailbiter.

23. Georgia-12: The most vulnerable House district held by Democrats this cycle, Rep. John Barrow's future is uncertain not because of national trends or local trends, but simply because his district changed to a midterm redrawing in Georgia. No polls have been recently in this race, and I still suspect Barrow to pull it off over Former Rep. Max Burns, but this could get tight.

24. Ohio-1: John Cranley, the Democratic challenger who came out of nowhere to be basically tied with Rep. Steve Chabot, is yet another Ohio Democrat hoping that a wave will push him into office. If Ohio can shove Kilroy, Space, and Cranley into office, don't just expect a Democratic House, but expect a very stong majority in a Democratic House.

25. Minnesota-6: No race has more polar opposites in candidates: State Sen. Michelle Bachmann is a polished politician with a platform to the very extreme right. On the other hand, Patty Wetterling is a liberal candidate who is incredibly popular, but isn't a consumate politican. Wetterling's celebrity status as a supporter of child safety will bring her a much closer race than should be expected of a Democrat in this district, but it'll take a Bachmann gaffe (which she's prone to doing) to really give this to the DFL.

26. Pennsylvania-7: Republican internal polling shows this race strongly in favor of Rep. Curt Weldon, but Democratic optimism and the overall trend in PA make me keep it for the time being. Weldon's going to need to keep the gap close in independent polling to have a shot in this race. This race will entirely depend on how Bush is seen in late October.

27. Wisconsin-8: Considering that Rep. Mark Green's base of support is in this district, and that he is running for governor, one would hope that he'd be able to bring out enough voters to give State Speaker John Gard an easy victory. However, Green is starting to flounder statewide, and Gard's negatives are being driven up quickly enough that Dr. Steve Kagen (D), may have a legitimate shot here.

28. Vermont-AL: Martha Rainville is a smart, competent, pedigreed candidate in this race with a moderate image. She also has an (R) behind her name, and that may be her undoing in the uber-liberal Vermont. State Sen. Peter Welch is hoping so, though polling shows that Welch and Rainville are running tight. Rainville will need a bit of a lead here in order to take it, as there will surely be an at least 2-3 point anti-Bush crowd coming out. It is Vermont, after all. This is the only other Democratic-held seat I have on the list (aside from No. 23)

29. Connecticut-5: Rep. Nancy Johnson is a long-running incumbent who has vanquished several important challenger in the past. State Sen. Chris Murphy may be the most impressive she's faced, however, and though she has a slight lead in the race, if the Democratic moon is full in CT, Murphy could make it three for three with challengers in the state.

30. Colorado-4: I could have included another Democratic-held seat (Melissa Bean's tough race in Illinois-8 comes to mind), or a longer shot (Idaho-1 or Wyoming-AL, perhaps?), but I decided to go with Angie Paccione, who was just put on the Red-to-Blue list and has been running well against archconservative Rep. Marilyn Musgrave. Musgrave came a lot closer to losing last time than initially anticipated, and now she has a better challenger, so who knows?